Page 2 of 2 Iran: A careful look
before a US
leap By Richard M Bennett
required as members of the
"coalition" against Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 1990,
and Libya was not.
The Saudi investigation
into the 1995 Khobar Towers bombing, which again
targeted US forces, is believed to have implicated
senior members of Iran's intelligence apparatus.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards are now deeply
involved in manipulating the
sectarian violence in
southern Iraq and continue to play a significant
part in Hezbollah's conflict with Israel.
The only apparent change in Tehran's
recent tactics has been to attempt to distance
itself publicly from its illegal actions. The
Iranian Republic is well aware of the negative
image created by international accusations of
being a state actually sponsoring terrorism.
Useful proxies Iran has been
careful to "outsource" its activities using such
proxy organizations as Hezbollah. Iranian agents
now rarely take an active part in terror attacks;
instead, terrorist groups active in the target
country are trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards
and commissioned to carry out acts against common
enemies.
An example of this tactic is the
bombing of a US Air Force building in Dhahran,
Saudi Arabia, in 1996 that killed 19 American
personnel. Again significantly, the indictment
handed down in June 2002 claimed that the attack
was carried out by an organization called the
Saudi Hezbollah under the direction of "elements
in the Iranian government".
Indeed, some
observers go as far as to suggest that Iranian
revolutionary-warfare instructors are engaged in
building up a network of suicide bombers,
saboteurs and assassins to attack US and Israeli
targets.
Assassination has also played a
significant part in the Islamic Republic's
campaign against Iranian dissidents. One source
stated, "Most of the victims of more than 450
listed terrorist operations by the [Iranian]
regime on foreign soil during the past two decades
[were] Iranian political opponents. Figures such
as Professor Kazem Rajavi, the elder brother of
Iranian resistance leader Massoud Rajavi;
Mohammad-Hossein Naghdi, former diplomat and
representative of the Iranian resistance in Italy
... Abdul-Rahman Qassemlou, secretary general of
the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan are part
of the list."
Iranian intelligence and
terrorism The coordinating group behind
Iran's terrorist activities and its potential
ability to strike back in the event of an attack
is known as the Committee for Special Operations.
It consists of the president; influential clerics;
senior officers from the Revolutionary Guards; the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and, most important,
MOIS (the Ministry of Intelligence and Security).
MOIS is ranked by many experts as one of
the largest and most effective intelligence
agencies in the Middle East. However, it is a
ministry purely in name, as it operates under the
direct supervision of the Supreme Leader. It is
not accountable to either the cabinet or
Parliament. MOIS works in coordination with the
Foreign Ministry in operations abroad, making
particular use of Iranian embassies, cultural
organizations and business enterprises worldwide
as centers for gathering intelligence and
supporting terrorist activities.
MOIS
controls the activities of the Vezarat-e Ettela'at
va Amniat-e Keshvar (VEVAK), which is responsible
for intelligence collection to support terrorist
operations and for liaison activities with
supported groups and Muslim fundamentalist
movements such as Islamic Jihad and even al-Qaeda.
The VEVAK special operations department
has responsibility for conducting terrorist
operations in support of Iran's direct national
interests and against Iranian dissidents in exile.
VEVAK has assisted in the training of selected
Bosnian Muslim army units since 1993. Along with
both al-Qaeda and, strangely, the CIA, it played a
major role in supporting the Muslim Albanian
Kosovo Liberation Army separatists in the Yugoslav
province of Kosovo during 1998-99.
The
IRGC (Pasdaran-e Inqilab) The
Revolutionary Guards' "Special Services" or
Department of Security and Foreign Intelligence
provides funds and arms to Islamic groups around
the world. It provides support for both the
Hezbollah and Hamas movements. Importantly, it
also is in overall control of the al-Quds
(Jerusalem) groups. Al-Quds has reportedly some
50,000 highly motivated fighters, including some
12,000 or more Arabic-speaking Iranians, Afghans,
Iraqis, Lebanese Shi'ites and North Africans
trained in Iran or during the Afghan wars.
Al-Quds may prove to be the most
significant of Iran's possible military options
for retaliation. It has helped Hezbollah establish
armed groups in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan,
Somalia, Sudan and Palestine and Islamic Jihad
militants in Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya, Kosovo and
many other Muslim countries and regions.
Al-Quds is in effect the long arm of the
Islamic Revolution abroad. To Abbas Milani,
director of Iranian studies at Stanford
University, it "is the hand-picked elite of an
already elite ideological army".
Some
observers believe it is also behind the creation
of large numbers of deep-cover terrorist cell
networks in Europe and North America, and in
pro-Western countries. It is these cells that will
prove almost impossible for Western security
services to identify and destroy; it is these
cells that could cause immense structural damage
to highly industrialized economies.
Not
just terrorism The danger to the United
States and Europe extends well beyond the threat
posed by Tehran's terrorist networks. As one
expert observer pointed out, "Iran now exercises
tremendous economic and political influence
through its oil production, its control of the
Persian Gulf's strategic Strait of Hormuz, and its
growing influence in OPEC [the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries], the United
Nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, the Economic
Cooperation Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and the World Islamic Council."
The source of Iran's growing influence,
oil and gas, is likely to remain firmly off any
future US target list. The consequences for
worldwide economic stability caused by the loss of
Iran's energy production could be staggering.
Whatever happens over the next few months,
short of an unexpected collapse of Islamic power
in Tehran, Iran will remain a divisive and
powerful economic and religious influence in the
Middle East for generations to come.
Despite Washington's undoubted and
overwhelming military superiority, a thoughtful
observer might be moved to suggest that it may
still be wise for the US to look before it leaps:
those who meddle in Middle Eastern affairs rarely
find it benefits them in the long run.
Richard M Bennett is an
intelligence and security analyst.
AFI
Research provides expert information on
the world's intelligence services, armed forces
and conflicts. Contact rbmedia@supanet.com.
(Copyright 2007 AFI Research. Used with
permission.)
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