Page 2 of 2 The week that transformed
Turkey
By M K Bhadrakumar
successful, reforming government. It has built an impressive track record in
terms of the democratization agenda, economic stability and foreign policy. The
probability is therefore high that the AKP will return to power with a new
mandate. Where does that leave the Kemalists and the military?
The Turkish "pashas" are unused to being dictated to by popular opinion. The
Kemalists are unlikely to abdicate from the political
scene even if they get a drubbing in the elections. In other words, the present
standoff has the potential to turn into a prolonged crisis, even with early
polls. In any other democratic country, elections should be the occasion for
establishing fresh ground rules, but Turkey is unique in this regard.
At the heart of the matter lies a twofold question. On the one hand, how will
the Turkish military "persuade" the AKP leadership to give up its legitimate
aspiration to field a candidate for the country's presidency and instead settle
for a "consensus" candidate acceptable to the Kemalists, no matter the AKP's
parliamentary clout? On the other hand, how realistic will be Erdogan's
expectation that, invigorated by a fresh popular mandate, the AKP will be able
to get the military to accept the supremacy of the democratically elected
government and its authority?
Clearly, the military's claim that it is the "absolute" guardian of the secular
republic founded by Mustafa Kemal is untenable under present
international democratic norms. Such a claim is certainly incompatible
with Turkey's bid for membership of the European Union. The military is
nonetheless pressing its claim, backed by the threat of a "soft" coup against
an elected government.
As the London Financial Times commented editorially, "The thesis that the AKP
government headed by Erdogan is intent on installing theocracy by stealth does
not really stand up. Erdogan's party combines the deeply conservative and
religiously observant traditions of Anatolia with a huge constituency in
Turkey's modern but Muslim middle class. It was created from the debris of
failed Islamist movements in order to supersede them; a rough analogy would be
the way the Christian Democrats emerged as modern parties of the center right
in much of Europe."
Turkish opinion remains democratic
It is already clear that regardless of Turks' political ideologies, public
opinion itself disfavors the rude attempt by the military to play a role in the
present crisis, let alone implicitly to threaten an outright military coup.
Even Ilter Turkmen, political columnist of the establishment daily Hurriyet,
wrote, "The general staff would have done better to voice its concerns behind
closed doors" when the AKP leadership first announced Gul's candidacy. Turkmen
pointed out that "it's always difficult to settle a conflict which has gone
public".
The influential Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association has called
for restraint and "common sense" in overcoming the political deadlock. It said
early parliamentary elections are needed so that the democratic fabric of
society is not impaired. The Turkish mass media have been largely critical of
the military's statement last Friday. The political parties of the right have
also taken a stance supportive of the democratic process. Summing up, seasoned
observer Cengiz Candar commented, "The military is seeing the option of a coup
more and more unpopular."
Significantly, even the impressive public rally by "secularists" in Istanbul
last weekend, which is estimated to have drawn more than half a million people,
distanced itself from identifying with the military's intrusion into the
democratic space. The rallyists chanted slogans favoring the strengthening of
democratic institutions as much as preserving Turkey's secular traditions. To
quote the liberal daily Milliyet, "In Turkey today, there are not only
Kemalists but also liberal, socialist, conservative and social-democratic
intellectuals ... In such a diversified and developed country, the thinking
that secularism will be lost is a totally irrational scare tactic."
Nonetheless, the daily advised in a note of political realism, the government
should take certain steps to dispel tensions and such scare tactics. "The AKP
should be more open to the center ... Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who
obviously deserves to be president, should win the office by being elected ...
The official ideology and the Kemalists should know that modernization
inevitably creates social diversity ... The way to strengthen such vital, basic
values as national unity and the unitary state is to strengthen the spirit of
tolerance and co-existence."
Looking at the paradigm in a slightly different way, it is evident that a sort
of class conflict lies at the root of the fear and uncertainties that the AKP
"provokes" among large sections of the Turkish urban secular elites. In a way,
the underlying fear on the part of the motley crowd of self-styled Kemalists is
that the liberal, "Westernized" lifestyle of Turkey's urban elites is coming
under pressure.
This is due to the steady migration of deeply conservative people from the
Anatolian heartland to the major cities that has been taking place over recent
years. The migrants bring their traditional way of life as observant Muslims
into the urban centers. The two sides harbor deep suspicions bordering on
mutual antipathy.
Regional dimensions
The Turkish military's resolve to wade brazenly into the political scene has
generated a lot of criticism in European capitals as well. The secretary
general of the Council of Europe (of which Turkey is a member), Terry Davis,
expressed "shock" at the military's statement on Friday. "They [Turkish
military] should stay in their barracks and keep out of politics," he said.
More significant, the European Commission's chief spokesman, while
acknowledging that democratic secularism was of high importance to the EU, said
in a statement that democratic institutions and the rule of law should be
allowed to have primacy.
Certainly, Turkey's democratic credentials will come under scrutiny in the
coming weeks and months, and that is bound to impact on the further progress of
Turkey's EU accession negotiations, which are already under pressure. But the
impact will be felt in much more immediate terms on Turkey's highly volatile
regional environment, especially the situation in Iraq.
As the campaign for parliamentary elections gets under way, there will always
be the risk that nationalist sentiments are whipped up. The situation in
northern Iraq and the threat posed by Kurdish militancy to Turkey's security
and integrity readily become the stuff of grandstanding by politicians who
intend to ride the wave of nationalism. These compulsions of domestic politics
in turn will significantly diminish Turkey's ability to play an effective role
in the stabilization of the Iraq situation.
Besides the United States, Iran and Syria will also have reason to be
worried that as the regional situation is poised to enter a qualitatively new
level of intensity, Turkey is getting bogged down in a prolonged period of
domestic commotion. Even Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon will
keenly watch how high the bar of democracy is going to be set for the forces of
Islamism to operate legitimately in Turkey's political arena.
M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service
for more than 29 years, with postings including ambassador to Uzbekistan
(1995-98) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
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