Page 2 of 2 A Turkish puzzle over
Iraq By M K Bhadrakumar
decision,
each Arab family willing to leave Kirkuk and go
back to its original home will become eligible to
receive about US$15,000 and a piece of land.
Turkey has reason to be concerned.
Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Massoud Barzani
stated recently in open defiance, "Turkey, Iran
and Syria should get used to the idea of an
independent Kurdistan." Turkey complains that
Barzani provides
safe
haven for terrorists belonging to the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK). Weapons supplied by the US
to Barzani are siphoned off to the PKK. Six PKK
camps operate out of territory held by Barzani and
he allows smuggling of weapons by PKK cadres
across the Turkish border.
Despite
repeated Turkish pleas to the United States to
curb PKK activities in northern Iraq, nothing much
has been done. There are telltale signs, too.
Testifying before the US Senate Appropriation
Committee on February 27, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice referred to "the border between
Turkey and Kurdistan". In a recent issue of the
neo-conservative magazine The Weekly Standard,
Michael Rubin, a leading US expert on the region,
revealed that US officials assigned to northern
Iraq openly sympathize with Kurdish nationalism;
the US allows oil deals to be negotiated by the
Kurdish administration directly with foreign
companies; Iraqi Kurdistan issues its own visas;
Kurds maintain separate representations abroad.
Last September, Barzani "outlawed" the Iraqi flag.
Rubin summed up: "A perfect storm is
gathering. For the first time since 1973, Turks
face selection of a president and election of a
parliament in the same year. Election-year
nationalism is incendiary. Barzani's rhetoric and
PKK terror add fuel."
Rubin's reading is
that Barzani is "overestimating the meaning of US
sympathy for the Kurds ... While Washington would
not bless a Turkish operation to attack PKK camps
in northern Iraq, it would understand one." As
regards likely Turkish options, Rubin said fear of
European disapproval will not deter Ankara from
attacking PKK bases. "Too many European leaders
have already made clear that Turkey has no hope of
entering the European Union ... Turkish officials
understand that even if they receive no green
light from Washington, the only consequence of a
cross-border raid would be to force Iraqi
officials to seal their northern border."
But Erdogan is riding many horses. On the
one hand, he keeps reiterating that a fait
accompli in Kirkuk is unacceptable, that the
proposed referendum lacks credibility, and that it
isn't even "healthy". But he won't say what he
proposes to do about it. On other occasions,
Erdogan warns that Turkey cannot be a mere
bystander to developments in northern Iraq. But
Turkey remains a "bystander".
Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul pledges "all necessary moral
and political support" to the Turkoman minority in
northern Iraq. But he won't be specific. The
ambiguities provoked commentator Avni Ozgurel of
the liberal daily Radikal to satirize recently,
"The state which we didn't want to talk about is
being born. The US was determined to establish a
Kurdish state. This is no surprise ... Clearly,
there's nothing Ankara can do at this point.
Military intervention and other words are big
lies. We can laugh at people who talk about Turkey
closing its EU bid and going on a fight against
the US."
The Turkish nationalist camp has
tried to raise the ante, but Erdogan will not be
provoked. Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet
Bahceli accused Erdogan of being a "seasonal
nationalist" whose shifting rhetoric matched the
compulsions of Turkey's approaching elections.
Bahceli proposed a six-point action plan devolving
on a comprehensive strategy of political pressure
backed by military force. These included stern
warnings to the Kurdish militia; an unambiguous
signal to the US that Turkey won't be a mere
bystander to the formation of an independent
Kurdish state; US and Iraqi groups to be firmly
told that the Kirkuk referendum is unacceptable;
economic sanctions on landlocked northern Iraq;
and that a cross-border operation should be
undertaken if circumstances warrant.
But
Erdogan claims he has his own six-point plan. The
opposition Republican People's Party sought a
special closed-door discussion in Parliament. The
government promptly granted one on January 23, but
patiently explained, according to Turkish media
reports, that launching a military attack on
Kirkuk would be sheer "adventurism".
When
rhetoric threatens to spin out of control, US
Ambassador Ross Wilson steps in. Thus, after the
special session of Parliament, Wilson said, "We
believe that the US-Turkish alliance and
Turkish-Iraqi friendship and partnership are a
means to address the [terrorist] PKK problem
collaboratively. We believe that successful work
in this way would not just relieve frustrations or
set the PKK back a few years, but would
fundamentally end the problem, or at least its
international aspects in the region.
"This
requires a combination of tough measures against
PKK terrorists; stopping the financial and other
support that comes to the PKK from its criminal
networks in Europe; and cooperative actions by
Turkey and Iraq, including the Kurdistan regional
government authorities in the north, to better
secure the border ... We are listening to Turkey
on this issue. We agree Kirkuk is sensitive; many
in Iraq think so, too. We also believe that no
outside power, including the United States, should
dictate to the Iraqis how to deal with their
internal issues," said Wilson.
A line of
distinction is drawn in US statements regarding
Turkey's legitimate security concerns regarding
PKK activities and what is taking place on the
larger chessboard of northern Iraq.
Conceivably, Washington is pleased with
Erdogan's handling of the highly explosive
equation. As the November elections to Parliament
draw close, if the US resorts to a crackdown on
the PKK in some way, that will help the AKP.
Meanwhile, the ground is being cleared for holding
the Kirkuk referendum.
The US is counting
on Erdogan's continuance in power to work out a
long-term rapprochement between Turkey and the
Kurds of northern Iraq under which the Kurdish
regional government in Irbil will be called on to
rein in the PKK while legitimate Turkish interests
in Kirkuk are accommodated.
Actually, a
major economic opportunity opens up for Turkey in
northern Iraq. Already, 300 Turkish companies
operate in the region and substantial Turkish
investment is taking place in northern Iraq. The
region thrives on supplies from Turkey. Above all,
Turkey is the transit country for the
transportation of Kirkuk's oil to Israel and
Europe.
After a recent tour of Turkey and
northern Iraq, Richard Holbrooke, former US
ambassador to the United Nations during the Bill
Clinton administration, assessed, "Having just
talked to the impressive leaders of both sides, I
believe they understand that they face not just a
crisis but an opportunity."
M K
Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the
Indian Foreign Service for more than 29 years,
with postings including ambassador to Uzbekistan
(1995-98) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
