Page 3 of 3 Tehran
falling into a US psy-ops trap
By Mahan Abedin
Iranians were confident enough that the Saudis would be unable to displace
Iranian influence over Hamas that they did nothing to undermine the deal.
While Iranian-Saudi relations have been steadily improving since the early
1990s, this level of cooperation (especially in the treacherous political
landscape of Lebanon - where the two countries pursue very different
objectives) is unprecedented. The key question is, why are the Iranians
appeasing the House of
Saud?
Iranian perceptions about the House of Saud are not very favorable. While the
Iranian diplomatic community regards the Saudis as "enablers" of US foreign
policy in the Muslim world, the hardline supporters of the Islamic Revolution
go much further and regard the historical function of the House of Saud as
pawns of the Western powers. They served the British during the heyday of their
empire and now serve the Americans, so the argument goes.
These hardliners tend to stay loyal to the late ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's
famous statement that "we may reach peace with Saddam but we will never accept
peace with al-Saud", even if they have not done much to undermine Iranian-Saudi
detente.
It is entirely possible that Iranian cooperation with the Saudis over the
political standoff in Lebanon and (to a much lesser extent) the deal that has
ended the bloody factional strife between Hamas and Fatah (at least for the
time being) is informed by the view that these latest Saudi maneuvers stem not
so much from creative Saudi initiatives but pressure from Washington. And this
US pressure can only be understood in the wider context of intense US
psychological warfare against Iran, so the policymakers in Tehran may argue.
If this is indeed the case, then the Iranians have badly miscalculated. All
evidence suggests that the Saudis have decided on a more proactive foreign
policy largely because of Iran's growing role in the region. Far from
neutralizing US intrigues, by engaging more closely with the Saudis the
Iranians are in fact bolstering the position of their only serious regional
rival.
The Iranian diplomatic community has long believed in the value of engagement
with Saudi Arabia, arguing that the ejection of US forces from the region can
only come about as a result of deep and wide-ranging Iranian-Saudi
understanding. This view was articulated to the author by Dr Pirouz
Mojtahedzadeh in an interview with Saudi Debate. [5] However, the wider Iranian
policymaking community (in particular Ahmadinejad loyalists) believe in keeping
the Saudis at arm's length hoping that America's weakening position will in
turn weaken the Saudis.
It is interesting that Ahmadinejad loyalists have not protested about the
recent Iranian overtures to the House of Saud. In this respect they may be
taking the psychological-warfare argument too far, thereby neglecting wider
regional realities. After all, not every major development in the Middle East
revolves around the United States. By drawing too close to the Saudis, Iran may
be undermining its traditional allies, in particular Syria, whose president has
just paid a visit to Tehran partly because of concerns over the recent
Iranian-Saudi "deal", which undercuts Syria's position in Lebanon.
In the final analysis, as the Iranians counter intense US psychological
warfare, they run the risk of misinterpreting wider regional developments.
These may prove costly in the long term, especially in regards to the balance
of Iranian and Saudi influence in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
While the House of Saud enjoys the backing of the United States and has
impressive resources, it - unlike the Islamic Republic - suffers from a major
legitimacy deficit. Iranian policymakers ought to beware of this and plan their
long-term approach to this declining monarchy accordingly.
Notes
1. "Jangeh ravaniye doshman va marooub shodaneh barkhi maghamat" (The
psychological warfare of the enemy and the surrender of certain officials), Dr
Hossein Kachouyan,
Raja News.
2. "Piyadeh nezamhaye janageh ravaniye Bush dar Iran" (Bush's
psychological-warfare foot soldiers in Iran), Qasim Ravanbakhsh,
Raja News.
3. Raja
News.
4. "US's smoking gun on Iran misfires", Gareth Porter,
Asia Times Online.
5. "Iran-Saudi strengthen ties despite US plot to sow division", Pirouz
Mojtahedzadeh, interviewed by Mahan Abedin,
Saudi Debate.
(This article first appeared in
SaudiDebate.com. Published with
permission.)
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