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2 The coming Sunni-Shi'ite
showdown By Jason Motlagh
forgotten as the administration recasts
its Iraq strategy in the coming weeks. Incoming
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said at his
confirmation hearing that his chief worry if the
US "leave[s] Iraq in chaos" is that "a variety of
regional powers will become involved in Iraq", a
pointed reference to Iran, "and we will have a
regional conflict on our hands".
But since
troop levels are bound to be reduced to some degree
after
the 2008 US presidential elections, Saudi Arabia
is making contingency plans. Obaid wrote that
proxy war options "now include providing Sunni
military leaders (primarily ex-Ba'athist members
of the former Iraqi officer corps, who make up the
backbone of the insurgency) with the same types of
assistance - funding, arms, and logistical support
- that Iran has been giving to Shi'ite armed
groups for years". The Washington Post reported on
December 12 that young Saudis have already joined
the Sunni insurgency as fighters, with financial
aid streaming in from other Saudi citizens.
Additionally, Riyadh could raise its oil
production to cut the price in half on
international markets, according to Obaid. This
would slash Iranian oil revenues and Tehran's
capacity to support Shi'ite militias operating in
Iraq.
In a calculated attempt to project
solidarity and preparedness in the face of Iranian
saber-rattling, Arab states have said they will
consider starting a joint nuclear program "for
peaceful purposes" - echoing Iran's own suspect
claim. The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC)- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab
Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman - announced the
plan to "commission a study" on a "common program
in the area of nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes" on December 10, the day after Iran said
it had begun installing 3,000 centrifuges in an
expansion of its uranium-enrichment program.
Israel quietly embraced the GCC decision.
It remains to be seen whether open
cooperation will emerge between Israel and Arab
Sunni countries to confront a common enemy, but
Riyadh was conspicuously quiet during Israel's
heavy-handed campaign in Lebanon to root out the
Iran-backed Shi'ite Hezbollah militia. The latest
scene of hostilities is the Palestinian
territories, where Iran sustains Islamic Hamas
with suitcases packed with millions of dollars in
cash while the Saudis have reportedly promised
rival President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement
funding to pay salaries and gird security forces.
A series of tit-for-tat assassinations,
culminated by last Friday's attempt on Prime
Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, have Palestinian
factions sliding toward an all-out civil war that
may be an opening salvo of worse to come in the
region.
Jason Motlagh is deputy
foreign editor at United Press International in
Washington, DC. He has reported freelance from
Saharan Africa, Asia and the Caribbean for various
US and European news media.
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2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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