The US campaign to 'persuade'
Iran By Ehsan Ahrari
US pressure on Iran to give up its
uranium-enrichment program is taking shape in a
variety of ways, with Saudi Arabia emerging as an
important actor. However, like all pressure
tactics in that part of the world, there is an
element of subtlety that is not missed by Tehran,
which won't necessarily respond as Riyadh and
Washington would expect it to do. In this
instance, Iran can be equally subtle, especially
in soothing the security-related concerns of its
Arab neighbors.
Two developments in the
Persian Gulf region need to be watched
carefully. First, it has
been reported that US-led coalition naval
forces have moved into the
Saudi port of Ras Tanura. The stated purpose is to
ward off possible seaborne attacks from al-Qaeda
against the world's largest oil-loading terminal.
But Iran will be watching carefully to see how
much this US presence intimidates the Saudi
leaders. Second, the US - along with ships from
Bahrain, Australia, France, Italy and Britain - is
conducting exercises simulating inspection of
ships carrying illicit weapons-related materials.
Iran must understand that the purpose is to
intercept any nuclear- or missile-related
shipments from North Korea.
Perhaps in
response, Iranian state television has announced
that naval maneuvers - named "Great Prophet Two" -
would take place in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman
from Thursday. "The war games are aimed at
demonstrating the deterrent power of the [Iranian
Revolutionary] Guards against possible threats,"
General Yahya Rahim Safavi, commander of the
Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying.
No one should think that just because the
US has not invaded North Korea or used its air
power to neutralize Kim Jong-il's nuclear
facilities in the aftermath of his nuclear
explosion of October 9 it would behave as
passively toward Iran. While a "nuclear" North
Korea gradually became an acceptable reality for
the national-security community in Washington over
the past few years, the idea of a "nuclear Iran"
remains much more problematical, at least for the
hawks in and around the Bush administration. They
have ensured that the issue of Iran's nuclear
program is never far removed from the radar of the
American public, as well as the international
community.
President George W Bush,
frustrated and disappointed at the
ever-deteriorating security situation in Iraq,
does not miss a chance to blame some of these woes
on the Iranians.
Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad's intermittent strident anti-Israeli
rhetoric has strengthened anti-Iranian feelings in
the United States. And recent reports that the
Islamic Republic has successfully created a
cascade of 164 centrifuges adds more weight to the
argument of Iran's defiance. This is despite the
fact that Iran has repeatedly stated that its
program is for peaceful purposes and that it is
exercising its rights under the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty.
While examining
the US exercises in the Sea of Oman and the Saudi
decision to allow the US Navy into Ras Tanura
port, one has to keep the preceding developments
in mind.
The Saudi decision to rely on US
forces once again - even though it carries a high
risk of escalated resentment among Wahhabi
hardliners inside the kingdom - might have been
made for contradictory reasons.
First, the
Saudi regime is convinced that its fight with
al-Qaeda will only be resolved once one of the
parties is eliminated. Thus the Saudis brought in
the ultimate "big gun" - the US military- to
safeguard their oil facilities and, in the
process, possibly their own survival.
Al-Qaeda has already declared Saudi oil as
a target to bring about the ouster of the regime.
Given that the industrial world is seriously
dependent on Saudi oil, and given that the US has
no intention of witnessing the destabilization of
Saudi Arabia, a powerful quid pro quo
drives the Arab kingdom and the lone superpower
toward each other. For the Saudi government, this
might be the beginning of a revival of the
US-Saudi friendship that cooled after the Gulf War
in 1991.
Second, the Saudi government -
along with other Persian Gulf sheikhdoms - doesn't
want to see the emergence of a "nuclear Iran" in
its neighborhood. These sheikhdoms do not
necessarily share the frightening US and Israeli
scenarios of Iranian menace. But they are
concerned that their region will be further
destabilized if the US or Israel were to decide to
bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.
So the
Saudis might be hoping that the presence of US
ships in their port will send the "right" signal
to Iran that it had better rethink its
intransigence regarding its uranium-enrichment
program. If Iran does not respond the way the
Saudis anticipate, then US-led military exercise
might do its share in "persuading Iran".
So the Bush administration is regaining
the friendship of the Saudis and busy persuading
other Gulf emirates to create some distance from
Iran. However, Iran is not without friends, and
the US and the Saudis will not have it all their
own way.
Ehsan Ahrari is the CEO
of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria,
Virginia-based defense consultancy. He can be
reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online. His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
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