Mixed welcome for new Iraq Study
Group By David Isenberg
ISG, it seems, is a popular abbreviation.
Up until last week it was generally thought to
stand for the Iraq Survey Group, the fact-finding
mission sent to Iraq after the 2003 US-led
invasion to find evidence of nuclear, biological
and chemical weapons programs in Iraq.
But
not anymore. Last Thursday the creation of a
"bipartisan Iraq Study Group" to provide a
forward-looking assessment of the situation in
Iraq to both the White House and Congress was
announced.
The group will examine four
broad topics: the strategic
environment in and around
Iraq; the security of Iraq and key challenges to
enhancing security within the country; political
developments within Iraq after the elections and
formation of the new government; and the economy
and reconstruction.
The group is being
organized by the US Institute of Peace with the
support of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), the Center for the
Study of the Presidency (CSP), and the James A
Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice
University. Congress will appropriate US$1.3
million to fund the group.
This is an
interesting selection of organizations. CSIS is a
very influential Washington think-tank known for
its close ties to conservative and Republican
Party policymakers. But thanks to its well-known
analyst Anthony Cordesman, it also produces some
of the most influential and critical analysis on
US military efforts in Iraq.
The Baker
Institute, while not nearly as well known, has
also produced some important analyses on US energy
issues and the United States in the Middle East. A
2002 report "Guiding Principles for US
Post-Conflict Policy in Iraq", which it
co-sponsored with the Council on Foreign
Relations, said: "There should be no illusions
that the reconstruction of Iraq will be anything
but difficult, confusing, and dangerous for
everyone involved."
The new Iraq Study
Group will be led by two co-chairs. They are James
A Baker III, who was secretary of state from 1989
through 1992 under president George H W Bush and
is honorary chairman of the James A Baker III
Institute for Public Policy, and Lee H Hamilton,
former congressman and director of the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Baker currently is a senior partner in the
law firm of Baker Botts and senior counselor to
the Carlyle Group. In 2004 Baker, as President
George W Bush's special envoy, was trying to
persuade the world to forgive Iraq's crushing
debts. This was at the same time the Carlyle Group
was secretly proposing to try to collect $27
billion in war reparations on behalf of Kuwait,
one of Iraq's biggest creditors, by using
high-level political influence.
Hamilton
is best known for being a co-chair of the National
Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United
States (also known as the 9-11 Commission), whose
585-page public report released on July 22, 2004,
managed to avoid assigning any blame to anyone
over the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
The report stated: "Our aim has not been to assign
individual blame. Our aim has been to provide the
fullest possible account of the events surrounding
9/11and to identify lessons learned."
The
group will be made up of five Republicans and five
Democrats. They include:
Robert M Gates, former director of central
intelligence and currently president of Texas
A&M University, after a tenure as interim dean
of the George Bush School of Government and Public
Service at Texas A&M from 1999-2001.
Rudolph W Giuliani, former New York City mayor
and current partner at Bracewell & Giuliani as
well as chairman and chief executive officer of
Giuliani Partners.
Vernon E Jordan Jr, former adviser to US
president Bill Clinton and current senior managing
partner at Lazard Freres & Co LLC.
Leon E Panetta, former Democratic congressman
and Clinton's chief of staff from 1994-96.
William J Perry, currently a senior fellow at
the conservative Hoover Institute and professor at
Stanford University, both in California, and
former secretary of defense, serving from February
1994 to January 1997. He also served as deputy
secretary of defense (1993-94) and under secretary
of defense for research and engineering (1977-81).
Perry also serves on the board of directors of
Anteon International Corp, a major Pentagon
contractor. Aneteon's contracts include helping
military forces train with virtual software for
urban combat missions in Iraq.
Charles S Robb, former governor of Virginia
and US senator, and currently a professor at
George Mason University Law School. Robb was also
a co-chair of the Commission on the Intelligence
Capabilities of the United States Regarding
Weapons of Mass Destruction, a panel created in
February 2004 to look into intelligence on WMD
programs in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as to
examine the capabilities of the US intelligence
community to address the problem of WMD
proliferation and related threats, which delivered
its report to the president last March 31. While
that report detailed many failings of the
intelligence community, it was considered flawed
because it avoided dealing with the "politics of
intelligence".
Alan K Simpson, former Republican US senator
from Wyoming who served from 1979-97.
Some
observers think it is unlikely the group will
produce anything useful. "I think it is a
whitewash group and nothing will come of it,
except that they may concoct some reason for the
US to stay the course in Iraq, with perhaps a
little more international support, like Germany
and Canada," said Washington-based writer and
analyst Wayne Madsen, publisher of
waynemadsenreport.com.
"The commission is
a whitewash because the members are all consummate
Washington insiders, many of whom have a political
and financial stake in the successful outcome of
the war. The longer the war goes on the more money
they make," said Madsen.
Others were more
supportive. Larry Korb, a senior fellow at the
Center for American Progress in Washington, DC,
and former assistant secretary of defense in the
administration of president Ronald Reagan, said:
"It reminds me of the wise men that [president
Lyndon] Johnson brought in after the Tet Offensive
during the Vietnam War. The question is whether
anyone will listen." Korb noted that Simpson is
close to Vice President Richard Cheney, which may
make it more likely that the commission's report,
when completed, is actually read and acted on.
Panel members said another prominent
Republican will join the group but declined to say
who it is. Reportedly a congressional Democratic
leadership aide identified that person as retired
Supreme Court associate justice Sandra Day
O'Connor.
David Isenberg, a
senior analyst with the Washington-based British
American Security Information Council (BASIC), has
a wide background in arms-control and
national-security issues. The views expressed are
his own.
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