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Story and pictures
by Iason
Athanasiadis
TEHRAN
- Iran's presidential election headed into an unprecedented second
round, two-man run-off on Friday, fueled by
accusations of electoral malpractice and given an
extra edge by tense anti-government rhetoric from Washington
and a shock poll predicting that the dark
horse, hardline candidate could claim the presidency.
Conservative Mahmud
Ahmadinejad (pictured above), a former
mayor of Tehran, is up against Ayatollah Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president.
Iranians were lining up at still-closed
polling stations in the conservative stronghold of
south Tehran to vote for Ahmadinejad who, more
than any other candidate in recent elections, has
polarized Iranian society between haves and
have-nots, populists and intellectuals.
"We can all hear the footsteps of
fascism," Mohammad Atrianfar, a staunch Rafsanjani
aide and publisher of the liberal newspaper Shargh
warned. "If we create a united front for a
national coalition, we will win Friday's
election."
One of the losers in last
Friday's first round of elections, Mehdi Karoubi,
resigned from his post at the powerful Expediency
Council and quit as an adviser to Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei, vehemently accusing him of not
stopping the military and other conservative
forces from interfering in the election.
"Just like you banned the military from
being involved in the economy, I asked you to
prevent a part of the Revolutionary Guards and
Basij [civilian militias] from engaging in
political activities, which is far more
dangerous," he wrote in a letter to Khamenei,
prompting a warning not to overstep the
boundaries.
On Thursday, the state-run
news agency announced that a military figure and
at least 25 other people had been arrested for
suspected election violations during the first
round of voting, bolstering Karoubi's claims of
malpractice.
The election to the runner-up spot last week of the
most conservative of the eight presidential
candidates cleared by the unelected Guardians
Council to run in the first round came hot on the
heels of one of the most liberal election
campaigns to take place since the establishment of
an Islamic theocracy 26 years ago.
In
the almost completely religious-free atmosphere that
surrounded campaigning, favored candidate
Rafsanjani filmed a video in which he appears
taking off his turban, and his campaign posters
showed him bareheaded, prompting a flurry of
speculation that he will further marginalize the
role of the clergy in Iranian society if he is
elected.
Before political activities
ceased on Thursday to mark a 24-hour cooling off
period, the tense time between the two rounds of
voting climaxed with extraordinary political
displays across Tehran. These included spontaneous
demonstrations between supporters of Rafsanjani
and Ahmadinejad amid jam-packed traffic. In the
main squares across Tehran, including Tajrish
Square - north Tehran's main hub - hundreds of
Iranians debated over the candidates, while others
openly exhorted them not to vote at all and hasten
the demise of the Islamic Republic.
"Have
we fought for the past eight years so that this
man [Ahmadinejad] comes back and destroys
everything we built?" one man exhorted a group of
listeners just meters from a group of watching
policemen.
A middle-aged woman with
dyed blonde hair peeking out from under her white
veil described how her newly-religious son had just
returned from pilgrimage to Mecca and was
haranguing her to pray, something that she was not
happy with but supported as a free choice.
"Just pray to God that four years from
now, if your candidate comes out, we'll be able to
stand here and debate as openly as this," she
urged a young Ahmadinejad supporter.
On
Fereshteh Avenue - Iran's most liberal street and
lined with coffee shops habituated by young women
stretching the sartorial boundaries of the country
to their seams - a recently opened Ahmadinejad
center caused passers-by to stare. Standing just
outside it and handing out ice-cream and fruit,
campaign representatives tried to engage the
neighborhood's traditionally high-rent crowd in
debate, and promised that an Ahmadinejad
presidency would not mean crackdowns on social
liberties.
Two hundred meters further down
the same street, Rafsanjani campaigners plastered
late-model cars with election propaganda and
danced to techno music or chatted on their mobile
phones. But even at the infamous party-tents that
attracted foreign journalists as much as they
repelled conservative voters, pushing them towards
Ahmadinejad's message of simplicity and social
justice, the formerly light mood had changed to a
growing sense of urgency.
Throughout this
past week, the middle class and wealthy parts of
Tehran that largely abstained from voting in the
first round began buzzing with rumors that
Ahmadinejad might institute separate male and
female sidewalks, lifts, even cemeteries, while
banning all Islamically incorrect interactions
between men and women. A tidal wave of
anti-Ahmadinejad text messages surged across
Iran's mobile phone network, prompting the
hardline judiciary to issue an order banning
election-related text messages, even as his
supporters complained that they were the targets
of a vilification campaign.
But continuing
his amazing surge in popularity, a new poll
released on Wednesday appeared to show Ahmadinejad
passing Rafsanjani. Ahmadinejad's rapid climb up
the opinion polls reveals the deep social fissures
in Iranian society and popular opposition to
rampant corruption.
"You have eaten, but
our children haven't eaten yet, they're hungry!"
one woman shouted on Wednesday evening at a group
of Rafsanjani supporters hanging out of a
poster-plastered jeep.
Should Ahmadinejad
edge out Rafsanjani for a shock victory, it will
cement the dominance of a new, second-generation
revolutionary elite shaped by the Iran-Iraq war of
the 1980s and whose thinking owes more to the
military than to clerical circles.
"This
second generation was alive during the Shah's
regime [before the revolution of 1979] but most of
them were students in university at the time and
matured mentally during the Iran-Iraq war, instead
of the revolution," said an Iranian academic.
"They matured in big organizations such as the
Revolutionary Guards or ministries during the
Iran-Iraq war. Both [the first and second
generation] believe in Islam and Ayatollah
[Ruhollah] Khomeini, but the second generation
also look to MIT [Massachusetts Institute of
Technology] and Jack Welsch [former GE CEO] for
expertise."
Some commentators express
concern that an Ahmadinejad victory would bring
about a more military-dominated government, as the
new president would be expected to place his
former colleagues from the Revolutionary Guards in
influential positions. It would also presage
greater military control over the state, in an
echo of the Turkish or Pakistani system whereby
the army oversees civilian institutions and
safeguards the stability of the state.
But
a Rafsanjani government - bringing together
cautious economic openings, moderate social reform
and an unyielding position on national security
issues - would not be all rosy either, according
to a formerly high-ranking Iranian official with
close ties to Rafsanjani.
"Rafsanjani will
arrest workers who strike and those intellectuals
who address protest letters to him," a former
deputy foreign minister told Asia Times Online.
"The reformists are supporting Rafsanjani blindly.
They don't have any future with a Rafsanjani
government, rather they would do better with an
Ahmadinejad government because he doesn't have the
power to exclude them."
Late Wednesday night,
parts of north Tehran were strewn with election
leaflets and posters as rival supporters continued
to drive around promoting their candidates.
Ahmadinejad's strong showing in wealthy north
Tehran indicated the deep, economic malaise that
afflicts the oil-rich country.
"Ahmadinejad has got economic programs, he
subsidizes housing, he gives financial support. If
he comes out, you will no longer see 36-year-old
unmarried men," one supporter said.
With
Iranian society so deeply polarized, it appears
that the forecast "Le Pen" effect sweeping
Rafsanjani to victory in a wave of fear over an
Ahmadinejad crackdown on social freedoms will not
automatically materialize. Iran's election has
been transformed into a classic contest of the
haves against the have-nots.
"The future
of Iran is very complicated," the former deputy
foreign minister concluded.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)
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