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Lebanon and its message
By Rabbi Moshe Reiss
Lebanon's elections are scheduled to start on May 29, and will continue for the
following three Sundays.
Lebanon is estimated to be 95% Arab. In the last election, in 2000, 50% of the
electorate voted for Christian parties. How much of the population is Muslim
and how much is Christian is unknown. Estimates range from slightly more
Christians than Muslims, to 2-1 favoring Muslims. The 450,000 Palestinians in
Lebanon are not counted as they have no rights and are forbidden to hold
citizenship. The last census was taken in 1932.
Lebanese are believed to originate from the ancient Phoenicians. King Solomon,
in building the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem approximately 3,000 years ago,
purchased timber from Lebanon, according to the Bible (1 Kings 5:30-31).
Later came the Armenians, who spoke Aramaic, the language of Jesus. The
Armenians claim to be the first Gentile group to convert as a result of
Constantine's conversion in the fourth century; they are still called the
Malkites. The word is Semitic and its Hebrew root is the word for king. The
Hebrew name for Lebanon is Laban, which also means "white". Laban was Jacob's
father-in-law for both of his wives (Leah and Rachel), and he is at times
called the Armenian.
More than twice as many Lebanese (7 million) are estimated to live in Brazil as
live in Lebanon; the number living in the United States (3 million) is
approximately equal to the number living in Lebanon. Most of those living
abroad are considered to be exiled Christians. More than 50% of the schools in
Lebanon use French as the vernacular language. The codes of the legal system
were originally written in French and only translated into Arabic in 1983; most
lawyers in court still cite the original French version of the law.
Inter-confessional marriages are not sanctioned by the clerics and take place
in Cyprus, after which they are recognized by the government. The same is true
in Israel.
National holidays include Christian and Islamic New Year's Day, Eastern
Christian and Western Christian Good Friday, Easter and Christmas, Ascension
Day, All Saints Day, St Marouns Day, Eid al-Fiter (end of Ramadan), Eid al-Adha
(Feast of the Sacrifice), Ashoura Day, Eid al-Mawled (the Prophet's Birthday),
Al-Isra' Wal-Mi'raj, and, of course, Independence Day.
Perhaps the most-known Arab literary figure, Gibran Khalil Gibran, author of The
Prophet, was Lebanese.
There are 18 religious and confessional communities in Lebanon. Each group
identifies itself first by its ethnic identity and second as Lebanese.
Sectarianism is the basis of the Lebanese state. Despite this, Lebanon is the
only Arab state that has had a democratic history, when Syria has not
interfered. The president and prime minister have changed by election, not by
the bullet. Religious freedom is constitutionally guaranteed. The president is
constitutionally a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni, the Speaker of the
House a Shi'ite and the deputy Speaker a Druze. The current parliament of 128
members is composed of members from the following groups: 34 Maronite
Christians, 27 Sunnis, 27 Shi'ite (11 Hezbollah, four Amal, an unknown number
associated with the Lebanese Ayatollah Mohammad Fadlallah), 14 Greek Orthodox,
eight Catholic Orthodox, eight Druze, and the remaining 10 from several smaller
parties.
So what will the composition of the parliament be after the May 29 elections?
(The French will vote on the European Union constitution that same day.) The
assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri has drastically changed political
dynamics in Lebanon. Lebanon was once treated by Syria as its surrogate, but
its armed forces now have left. What powers Syria still has are unclear.
Hezbollah, Lebanon's most important political faction, demonstrated its power
in March by having half a million persons march in Martyrs' Square, the center
of Beirut (Hezbollah's territory is southern Beirut). At the demonstrations,
Hezbollah flew the Lebanese national flag, not its own flag; that was
presumably very significant as to its intentions (see
Hezbollah enters the fray, March 10,
2005). The next week the opposition held its own large demonstration. Young
people were the strength of this and continuing protests; they represent 20% of
the population and have never voted before. Will they follow their fathers in
the upcoming elections?
Hezbollah has improved its electoral power in municipal elections in the past
two years. Will it receive more parliamentary seats than it has at present? If
so, at whose expense? Perhaps Amal's or other Shi'ite parties, though not
likely other communal groups.
The Lebanese opposition to Syria expects to win the elections. Who is this
opposition to the former pro-Syrian community: the Maronite Christians, the
Greek and Catholic Christians and the Sunnis. Will the Christian groups combine
with the Sunnis to form the next coalition government?
The election law was allegedly written by pro-Syrian legislators and approved
by pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. The League of Maronite Christian Bishops
has already complained that the election is rigged, before it has even begun.
Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former premier, with no political
experience, has announced he will form his own political party.
General Michel Aoun, a Maronite leader and former prime minister, left Lebanon
15 years ago and lived in exile in France. He was opposed to the Syrian
occupation and returned on May 7 (see
Michel Aoun comes home to roost, May 13).
His old friends and enemies are still in Lebanon. He has met with Hezbollah
leaders and is already being talked about as the next president. His friends
will no doubt soon compare him to Charles de Gaulle, his enemies to Napoleon.
'Not a nation, but a message'
A key to understanding Lebanon is the civil war that began on April 13, 1975,
between the Lebanese Christians and the Lebanese Muslims allied with the
Palestinians. The Israeli invasion in 1982 (a mistake in this writer's opinion)
was the result of this civil war. Many Lebanese argue that the 15-year war was
caused by the Palestinians, particularly their leader Yassar Arafat, who had
been expelled by the Jordanians for attempting to cause a civil war there. The
war began to end (despite continuing for another eight years) when Arafat was
expelled from Lebanon in 1982. None of Lebanon's confessional groups favors
giving rights to the Palestinian refugees. Permanent settlement by the
Palestinians is forbidden by the Lebanese constitution. The Palestinians are
known to be militarized within their refugee camps. They are also surrounded by
Lebanese armed forces. They are considered by nationalist Lebanese as "foreign
forces" under UN Resolution 1599 and are therefore required to disarm and/or
leave Lebanon. Recently, President Lahoud stated, "All the Lebanese people
agree that the permanent settlement of the Palestinian refugees is a time
bomb."
The Taif Accord of 1989, signed by the various communal representatives, can be
considered the end of the war. But Lebanon remains in a precarious position.
The late pope John Paul II said, Lebanon was "not a nation, but a message" of
Christian-Muslim coexistence, one that obviously Europe could learn from.
Maronite intellectual Georges Naccache said in French: "Two negations do not
make a nation."
The United Nations has demanded that Hezbollah (which has been called a state
within a state) disarm. Hezbollah has been supported by money and arms from
Islamic Iran and secular Syria for many years. The Bekaa Valley training camps
run by Iran have trained Hezbollah and other terrorists for jihadi operations.
Since April of this year Hezbollah has been sending air drones over Israeli
territory. The questions is, how will Israel react?
Maronite leader and Lebanese defense minister, Abdel-Rahim Morad, has said the
Lebanese army cannot fill the vacuum the Syrian soldiers have left behind. He
was suggesting that Hezbollah could fill that space. He did not say so
explicitly, but it is clear from his remarks that the most effective Lebanese
military force is that of Hezbollah. He did not mention who would fill the
vacuum on the southern border with Israel if Hezbollah is disarmed. But the
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said disarming Hezbollah is not in the cards -
though he had said two weeks earlier that Hezbollah ought to be disarmed. Even
the EU has designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
What changed Jumblatt's mind? One story is that the Shi'ite demonstrators
caricatured him in signs as an "Orthodox Rabbi"; he felt after Hariri's death,
his end was coming. His father, Kamal, was murdered after opposing Syrian
forces in Lebanon. On the other hand, a Lebanese Christian opposition figure
stated, "Jumblatt's head has gotten swollen. Everyone is courting him. He was
in Saudi Arabia, where he apparently got money, he is meeting with world
figures, he was in Egypt and met with [President Hosni] Mubarak. Suddenly this
man has become, in his own eyes, an omnipotent leader - according to his will,
the opposition will either exist or collapse. Suddenly he is [Hezbollah chief]
Hassan Nasrallah's friend." Both comments are from biased parties.
On March 16, Nasrallah said, "Disarming the resistance will be up for
discussion, and we expect our partners [the opposition] to offer us
alternatives to defend the country and people." From whom? Nasrallah has
recently threatened the United States. The question had been asked in Arabic
newspapers whether Nasrallah has "lost his mind" (Kuwaiti Daily, April).
Will Hezbollah attempt to control Lebanon politically? Will Nasrallah have a
surrogate run for Speaker of the parliament? Or alternatively, will he use the
weapons, including missiles he has from Iran, to become the strongman of the
country? Could the latter cause another civil war?
Looking at Lebanon's surrogate parent
One cannot discuss Lebanon without reference to Syria, its "surrogate parent";
however the subject has already been discussed to the saturation point (see
The twists and turns of 'Syria first' ,
March 25). Syria claims Lebanon is part of Greater Syria. As in Egypt, where
there is no map that shows a State of Israel in Syria, the State of Lebanon is
not to be found on maps, just Greater Syria.
President George W Bush has not had a policy toward Syria, other than calling
it a "rogue state", a home for terrorists, and even accusing it of having
weapons of mass destruction. There is a Syria Accountability and Lebanese
Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003, which imposes strict sanctions against the
Syrian government. And the US is now considering imposing sanctions on Syria's
financial sector under the Patriot Act. Since 1979 Syria has been designated as
a state sponsor of terrorism by the US. But after 25 years, this approach has
not had any affect on Syrian behavior or strategic and tactical calculations.
Is Bush now inching toward a policy? Is it "regime change"? (It would be easier
than "regime change" in Iran, another possible candidate.) Whatever the case,
the US is likely to continue its demands that Syria democratize its government
as this dovetails with the Bush administration's overall policy of transforming
the authoritarian states of the Middle East into democracies.
Meanwhile, the Lebanon-Syria conflict has managed to reconcile the dispute
between the US and France, which have had problems since shortly after
September 11, 2001. Both countries have agreed to pass UN resolution 1599
demanding Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and Hezbollah's disarmament.
Another relevant party in any discussion of Lebanon and its surrogate parent,
Syria, is Israel. According to Flynt Leverett, a former US diplomat and author
of a recent book, Inheriting Syria, Washington told Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon of Israel not to agree to open a negotiating front with Syria over the
future status of the Golan Heights. Assad is willing - perhaps even anxious,
according to Leverett - to open negotiations on that issue. The US is in no
mood to offer any opportunity to Syria whereby it would gain any momentum
stemming from a potential breakthrough on the Golan Heights, which has been
under Israeli occupation since 1967.
Israel's policy was once invasion. That failed. The connection between the
Israelis and the Christian Lebanese who cooperated in that war is that both are
considered outlaws in the Muslim heartland.
Israel could defuse Hezbollah by returning a small enclave known as Sheba Farms
(200 square kilometers), which even the not-Israeli friendly UN agrees belongs
to Syria and therefore is part of a Syria-Israel peace process (if one
existed). However, Hezbollah claims Sheba Farms belongs to Lebanon; it is not
clear what the Lebanese government's position is. Hezbollah claims it retains
its arms to free this farmland. Given the Gaza disengagement, Israel is highly
unlikely to give up Sheba Farms despite its obvious advantage.
If Hezbollah decides to use its military power to suicide bomb Israelis or
attack them with rockets or even missiles that they have from Iran, will Israel
attack from the air and bomb Beirut or an electric grid or water dam? If the
anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon take control of a new government, can they
negotiate with Israel? What would Syria do? Israel signed a peace treaty with
Lebanon in 1983 during the civil war and Israeli occupation; Syria canceled it.
Will Syrian President Bashar Assad still have the power after the election to
control certain red-line events in Lebanon? Yes.
Rabbi Moshe Reiss is a graduate of Oxford University and was assistant
rabbi at Yale University. He was the first rabbi invited to teach in the
Department of Theology at the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium (founded
1425), and has lectured in various countries. He has posted three books on his
website on Judaism, Christianity and Islam. His book on Judaism is being
published by sections in the Jewish Bible Quarterly. He now lives in Israel.
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