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Assassination: All eyes on
Syria
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The assassination on Monday of
former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri, who opposed
the Syrian military occupation of Lebanon, places
the spotlight firmly on Syria, a safe haven for
Palestinian militant organizations.
An
explosion in front of Beirut's St George Hotel
killed nine people in the well-protected motorcade
in which Hariri was traveling, in addition to the
62-year-old billionaire politician. A previously
unknown terrorist group (al-Nasr wa al-Jihad fi
Bilad al-Sham - 
Victory and Jihad in Palestine,
Jordan, Lebanon and Syria) has claimed
responsibility.
Hariri, a Sunni
Muslim, held office for 10 out of 14 years in
the post-civil-war period starting in 1992, winning
three elections and serving as premier from 1992
to 1998 and again from 2000 to 2004. A self-made
billionaire who helped rebuild his country after
decades of war, he recently moved to the
opposition after a dispute with Syria.
He
strongly backed United Nations Resolution 1559,
which calls for the withdrawal of the
approximately 17,000 Syrian troops stationed in
Lebanon - based mainly east of Beirut and in the
Bekaa Valley - a demand unacceptable to the
government in Damascus. Hariri had strong
connections with the Saudi royal family; he even
held Saudi nationality in the 1980s.
"Sooner or later we will hear an
accusation from Washington that Syria was behind
the killing of Rafik, and then new controversies
will be carved out which will question the Syrian
presence in Lebanon. Of course, the situation will
finally force Syria to pull out its troops, and of
course a vacuum will be created, which will be
filled by NATO [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization] troops once again in the region,"
said veteran Palestinian writer Samir Allawi, who
is an expert on Middle Eastern affairs.
"The plot seems to be multi-faceted to fix several
issues," Allawi elaborated. "It is aimed at
both Syria and Lebanon, which are a permanent pain
in the sides of Israel," he said. "Syria is the
only home left for the three top powerful militant
groups - Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah
- and Syria unofficially serves as a strategic
back yard for the Palestinian resistance
movement. Pressure on Syria will be used as a
bargaining chip to minimize the presence of these
organizations until their operations become null
and void [as previously happened in Jordan].
"There are groups in Lebanon which are in
favor of the presence of Syrian troops in the
region, including among the rulers, but there is a
powerful opposition as well. Rafik Hariri's
killing will ignite controversies concerning the
Syrian presence and thus create divisions in
society, which will finally give the US a role in
this region in the shape of a NATO presence and a
chance to manipulate Lebanese internal and
external policies," Allawi maintained.
The main Israeli-US concern in Lebanon is Beirut's
support of the Palestinians' right to return to
their homeland. Despite repeated pressures
and assurances of aid packages, Beirut has refused to
give Palestinians in Lebanon citizenship. If this
happened, they would lose their right to return to
their homeland once and for all. At present, they
are refugees in Lebanon and retain the right to
return, a dangling sword on Israeli interests.
In Syria, government spokesman Buthaina
Shaaban said Syrian-Lebanese relations had
"nothing to do with what happened". "Maybe this
horrendous crime is a beginning to a new
conspiracy that we need to alert the international
community [to]," Shaaban said. "This is all part
of the imperialistic conspiracy that the region
has been suffering from for years."
Apart from the political implications of
Lebanon granting 700,000 Palestinian refugees
citizenship, it would disturb the ethnic balance in
the country, making the Sunni Muslim population
the majority. At present, Sunnis represent 35% of
the 3.5 million population. Christians comprise
about 38%, while Shi'ites account for 27%. Keeping
this divide, according to Lebanese law, the
president of Lebanon must be a Christian and the prime
minister a Sunni, while the Speaker of parliament must be a
Shi'ite.
The Syrian connection
The Syrians sent troops to Lebanon during the civil
war between 1975 and 1990 on the request of the
Christian-dominated government. The war ended with
the Taif Agreement, negotiated in the Saudi city of
that name by members of Lebanon's parliament. The
agreement covered political reform, the ending of
the war in Lebanon, the establishment of special
relations between Lebanon and Syria, and a framework
for the beginning of Syrian withdrawal from
Lebanon. It was signed on October 22, 1989.
By then Syria held sway over most of the
country through its military presence, through
alliances with militias such as Hezbollah in the
south, or through the control that its security
services exerted. Under the Taif Agreement, Syria
was to withdraw its troops and curtail its
influence in Lebanon, but it never completely did
either. This led to resentment among the Christian
minority, but also among large segments of the
Muslim population.
Things came to a
head last summer when Damascus forced the
Lebanese parliament, in an act of naked interference,
to reappoint the unpopular pro-Syrian president
Emil Lahoud for another two years. This led to
UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which
demands the total withdrawal of Syrian troops from
the country and stipulates an end to Syrian
meddling in Lebanon.
Hariri was prime
minister at the time, and opposed the move to
reappoint Lahoud, with whom he had clashed
frequently. But the Syrian leadership forced him
to back down. Several months later he resigned.
Hariri previously had good
relations with Damascus. He had many contacts in
Saudi Arabia, including among the royal family. These helped
smooth the way with the Syrians. Now, however, Hariri
was for the first time directly opposed to the
Syrians in the run-up to parliamentary elections that
were expected this May. He was said to have had a good
chance of leading the opposition to victory on an
anti-Syrian ticket.
This makes it all the
more likely that the fingers will point at the
Syrians or their proxies. The theory that
opponents of Damascus did it to create chaos and
force the Syrians out seems far-fetched. They
stood a good chance of striking a serious blow at
the Syrians at the ballot box, and did not need
such a throw of the dice at this point. Also, the
May elections have been thrown into doubt now
because the violence would afford Lahoud a perfect
excuse to cancel them.
In the short term
the effect of the assassination may be to
strengthen Syria's hand. Lahoud has authority over
the army. The Syrians can also use the unrest to
say that Lebanon is still unstable and therefore
in need of continued Syrian presence. This has
been a tactic in the past.
France has
called for an international inquiry into the
attack, but that is unlikely. It is doubtful in any
case that investigators will be able to untangle
Lebanon's Byzantine political and militia scene.
For Lebanon the blast means a throwback to
an earlier, uglier time. Uncertainty and tensions
along political and sectarian lines could once
again increase. Foreign investment, crucial for a
country as burdened with debt as Lebanon, is also
likely to suffer.
Syria is already the target
of US sanctions under the "Syria Accountability
Act" that calls for Damascus to stop supporting
terrorist groups. Washington is also upset with
the Syrians over alleged support to militant
groups in Iraq.
US officials said
Hariri's killing was an "ominous development" on
two counts: first, because it raised concern that
Lebanon could plunge back into the civil war that
it suffered throughout the 1980s; and second,
because it underscored growing US impatience with
the role played by Syria in the Middle East. Moves
are already under way for stiffer sanctions
on Syria, a development supported by the European
Union.
Reports from the southern Iraqi
cities of Najaf and Karbala say that copies of a
proposed Islamic constitution, written by Kadhum
al-Haeri, a senior Iraqi cleric who lives in the
Iranian holy city of Qom, are being distributed.
The proposal is based on the teachings of Muqtada
al-Sadr's uncle, a revered cleric, and are
prominent in many mosques. At the same time, the
US is busy arming private militias to stop the
spread of calls for "rule by the clergy" in Iraq
(see Asia Times Online, US fights back against 'rule by
cleric's, February 15).
Now, the high-profile killing of Hariri, right after
the conclusion of the Iraqi elections, could be the
spark to set off latent conflicts in the region.
(Additional reporting by Ferry Biedermann
of Inter Press Service in Amman, Jordan.)
Syed Saleem Shahzadis Bureau
Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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