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Peace, but no
stability
By Erich Marquardt
In September, the Gallup Organization polled
Baghdad residents to find out their views on the United
States-led coalition. The poll found that 62 percent of
respondents believed that the removal of Saddam Hussein
had been worth the hardships suffered from the US-led
invasion; 30 percent answered to the contrary. On the
other hand, only 6 percent of respondents considered
Baghdad a safer place since the fall of Saddam.
Furthermore, 47 percent thought that they were
worse off at the time of the poll than before the fall
of Saddam; 33 percent thought the opposite. The somewhat
positive results from the poll led White House spokesman
Scott McClellan to say: "The Iraqi people have indicated
in a number of different ways, if you look at polls, if
you look at the Governing Council representatives, that
they want us to stay until the job is finished."
The Gallup poll results confirmed that the
majority of Iraqi society did not consent to the rule of
Saddam Hussein and his Ba'athist establishment. Yet
despite the positive aspects of the poll, there were
certainly many causes for concern, especially the fact
that 94 percent of respondents considered Baghdad to be
much more dangerous since the fall of Saddam. In light
of these concerns, the main goal of the US-led coalition
since September should have been to increase safety and
stability in Iraq in order to address and rectify the
most negative aspects of the September Gallup poll.
Judging by the results of the latest poll taken
in Iraq, the US-led coalition has failed to resolve the
vital security and stability problems. This should act
as an alarm bell for policymakers in Washington. Oxford
Research International, together with Oxford
University's Department of Sociology, conducted the poll
in the months of October and early November. The poll
found that Iraqis are quickly becoming disenchanted with
the US-led coalition.
The failure of the
coalition to bring safety and stability to Iraq has
caused massive disillusionment within Iraqi society. The
poll found that 78.8 percent of Iraqis have little or no
confidence in the US and British forces. Instead, Iraqis
trusted their religious leaders far more than coalition
forces; 70 percent of respondents had trust in their
religious leaders.
Surprisingly, while less than
1 percent of Iraqis lament the fall of Saddam, about the
same number believe that the US-led reconstruction is
what Iraqis need most in the next 12 months.
Furthermore, only 1 percent of Iraqis fear a withdrawal
of US-led forces. These results led Christopher Sahm, an
Oxford University sociologist who coordinated the poll,
to say: "The very troops which liberated Iraqis from
Saddam are the most mistrusted institution in Iraq
today." Indeed, when asked to rate their confidence in
11 listed organizations - such as the Iraqi Governing
Council, the new Iraqi army, and the United Nations -
the US-led coalition garnered the least support out of
the 11.
In line with these trends, Iraqis seem
to disagree over what the priorities of the Iraqi
government should be. While the US has been scurrying to
set up a war crimes tribunal in Iraq, 91 percent of
Iraqis consider dealing with members of Saddam's Ba'ath
Party to be "of no priority at all". Instead of dealing
with members of the former government, a majority of
Iraqis - standing at 67 percent - believe that restoring
public security should be the number one job of the
current authorities.
Security is a pivotal issue
for Iraqis because many of them fear a civil war between
the different ethnic groups within the country, and the
Sunni Shi'ite divide. The Oxford poll found that 36
percent of respondents fear that Iraq might drift into
civil war within the next year. Nevertheless, a majority
of Iraqis believe that it is up to them to "work this
out", and not the responsibility of the US-led
coalition.
The results of subsequent polls in
Iraq, up to the most recent one conducted by Oxford
Research International, need to be studied by Bush
administration policymakers in order to curtail the
growing alienation and disillusionment felt toward the
US-led coalition. Since Washington has no immediate
plans to pull US forces out of Iraq, it will need to
address the most pressing issues affecting Iraqi
society, such as the security situation.
Published with permission of the Power and
Interest News Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the
globe. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com
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