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The hallmarks of an al-Qaeda
attack
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Over the past year, several cities
have been the victim of terror attacks, and although
al-Qaeda has been the prime suspect, the group itself
has not yet been definitively connected to any of them,
as with Thursday's twin attacks in Istanbul. However,
the attacks have such a powerful al-Qaeda "seal" on them
that there is no need for any formal announcement.
According to the latest reports, the suicide
bombing of the British consulate and the HSBC's
headquarters in Istanbul have left at least 25 people
dead and more than 400 injured. British consul-general
Roger Short was among at least 14 people killed in the
attack on the consulate.
The explosions follow
hard on last Saturday's suicide bomb attacks against two
synagogues in Istanbul that killed 23 people.
Many in the global intelligence world have
concluded after interrogating arrested al-Qaeda suspects
that al-Qaeda would target areas where it was not
normally known to be a player. This is true, but the
reason is not to rely on the element of surprise, but
because there is a clear purpose.
After
September 11, 2001, two of the weakest links in the
United States chain of global influence were Afghanistan
and Iraq, but they have both been occupied by US-led
forces, although the resistance movements in these
countries are keeping the US-led forces under siege.
However, the hardcore members of Osama bin Laden's
International Islamic Front (IIF) have no reason to
meddle in these regions as the seeds of discontent have
already been sown and local elements can adequately
further their own agendas.
Other weak links in
the US chain of influence include North Korea and Iran,
but these have either been subdued by heavy US presence
in their region, or diplomatically "contained".
Therefore, there remains no need for the US to keep them
on its immediate target list, so there is no immediate
need for al-Qaeda involvement.
In fact, the real
al-Qaeda aim is to target the strongest US links
in that country's chain of interests among Muslim
countries, such as Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and
Turkey.
Thus, terror attacks over the past year,
apart from the recent ones in Turkey, include: Bali,
Indonesia (202 dead, 88 of which were Australians);
Casablanca, Morocco (24 people dead after attacks on the
Belgian consulate, a Jewish center and a Spanish
restaurant) and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on May 12 (23 dead,
including eight Americans, in attacks on a housing
complex favored by Westerners.)
It should be
noted that although some of these attacks might have
been undertaken by local radical units, such as Jemaah
Islamiyah in Indonesia and Jazeeratul Arab in Saudi
Arabia, they take orders from al-Qaeda's military
committee. In the case of the Turkey bombings, though,
it appears that al-Qaeda was directly involved.
It should also be noted that the most recent
attack in Riyadh on November 8, which claimed the lives
of at least 17 people, was not, the work of
al-Qaeda (See Asia Times Online, November 21, House of Saud plays a radical
card.)
This correspondent has held
detailed discussions with the key members of many
radical groups, including some wanted people in
underground organizations. Without fail, such people are
contemptuous of what they call the "religio-political"
parties, notably in Turkey, where the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) - which has Islamist roots -
swept to power with a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Further, the radicals deplore the manner in
which the West, and especially the United States,
supports authoritarian rulers in Muslim countries,
notably in Saudi Arabia, which, they say, distorts the
true face of Islam in the populations of these
countries.
The contempt of religious Islamic
parties diluting themselves in the political system has
its roots in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood over
half a century ago decided to enter mainstream politics.
Several groups, such as the Hizbut Tehrir, the
Jamaatul Jihad and Takfeer group, born as they were in a
belief in radical Islam, condemned the Muslim
Brotherhood, which in turn lost mass support.
In
this context, the terror attacks in Indonesia, Morocco,
Saudi Arabia, Morocco and now Turkey appear aimed at
allowing radicalism to prevail.
Major blow on
Western economic interests
The terror attacks
also aim to segregate the Muslim world from the rest of
the world, if nothing else in economic terms.
According to the Institute for Research: Middle
Eastern Policy Research (IRMEP) July-August policy
brief, the US share of world merchandise exports to the
Arab Middle East slid from 18 percent in 1997 to 13
percent in 2001. This occurred during import demand
growth averaging 1 percent per year and voracious demand
for high value-added capital goods among Arab economies.
The hardest-hit US export sectors include civilian
aircraft, agriculture, heavy transportation, as well as
telecommunications and industrial equipment.
On
the demand side, the broad US export downturn is driven
by growing Arab boycotts against US consumer and
industrial goods. These occur as a response to the
perceived loss of US regional foreign policy legitimacy
as seen through the eyes of Arab buyers.
On the
supply side, the increasing restrictions on Arab
business travel to the US, and surging US fears,
xenophobia and legal campaigns leveled against Arab
business are positioned to accelerate the toll on future
trade, according to the IRMEP, which estimates that
America has already lost US$31 billion in exports
between 1998 and 2002. If the trend continues, the US
stands to lose an additional $63 billion through 2007
for a 10-year export loss of $94 billion.
Understanding al-Qaeda
The US
Federal Bureau of Investigation website has posted
pictures of several captured al-Qaeda operators in what
it claims as major victories in the "war on terror".
Consider, though:
Most al-Qaeda operators belong to North African
nations, and they are still there.
During the Afghan war of the 1980s, the US Central
Intelligence Agency and Pakistan's Inter-Services
Intelligence jointly helped the Hezb-i-Islami
Afghanistan of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to launch Islamic
radical parties in Central Asian states, then part of
the former USSR, to defeat socialism at its roots. These
parties later on forged ties with the Taliban and built
bridges with the International Islamic Front.
These Central Asian radicals have made inroads into
Turkey.
These factors have largely been ignored
in the "war on terror" as focus has been given to the
traditional "hot beds" of Afghanistan, Pakistan and
Yemen.
Conclusion
From attacking the
Twin Towers in New York to bombing the British consulate
in Istanbul, there is no need to wait for an al-Qaeda
announcement to affirm its involvement. It is only
needed to look for its "seal", characterized by a
divorce between Muslim and Western society; creation of
a special kind of anarchy in which all Islamist
"democrats" will be forced to either abdicate from the
Islamic system or throw their weight behind radicalism;
and last but not least, the complete eradication of US
economic interests from Muslim societies.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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