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Time running out for Iraqi Governing
Council
By Charles Recknagel
PRAGUE - With United States administrator for
Iraq, L Paul Bremer, suddenly returning to
Washington on Wednesday for high-level meetings
concerning the political and security situation in Iraq,
there is speculation that the meetings are looking at
ways to accelerate the hand over of power to Iraqis as
one way to hasten the return of stability to the
country.
The meetings are reported to include,
among others, US Vice President Dick Cheney, National
Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld and - at times - President George W
Bush.
One news report speculated that one model
being discussed for Iraq's political transition
approximates that of which was used in Afghanistan. The
newspaper says that model is "to hold some form of
elections in Iraq, possibly in four to six months, to
select a new body that would write a constitution, and
an executive to assume sovereign powers in Baghdad".
With details vague and other options also
reported to be under discussion, it is too early to say
exactly what new strategies toward Iraq the Washington
meeting may adopt. But the high-level nature of the
talks, and the troubled relationship between Washington
and the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council (IGC),
suggest any changes will be substantive and not
cosmetic.
The meetings come after weeks of signs
that Washington is increasingly unhappy with the
council's inability to rapidly pave the way for the
country to become a democracy. Tensions reached a high
point last weekend as Iraq's interim foreign minister,
Hoshyar Zubari, said that due to Iraq's difficult
security situation, the council might not be able to
meet a key United Nations-imposed deadline next month.
The council is to provide the UN by December 15 with a
timetable and a program for drafting a new constitution
and holding democratic elections.
Fuad Ma'asoum,
chairman of the IGC-appointed Iraqi Constitutional
Preparatory Committee, told RFE/RL's Iraqi service that
work on the constitution cannot be rushed if the
document is to fully engage Iraqis in a new post-Saddam
Hussein order: "The constitution is not only for one
generation. It is for the next generations, as well.
Therefore, we can't ignore it or delay it. But at the
same time, we can't hurry with it. We should work
actively."
But any suggestion the IGC might miss
its UN deadline doesn't sit well with Washington. The US
administration sponsored the UN resolution last month
that set the December 15 deadline. It was part of
Washington's plans for obtaining greater international
participation in Iraq's reconstruction and reducing the
financial burden on America.
The IGC's
suggestion that it might not meet its deadline due to
the deteriorating security situation also highlights
tensions with Washington over another subject - the
council's continuing demands it be given powers like
those of a provisional government. The council has said
that doing so would improve the security situation and
thus speed the council's own work by encouraging more
Iraqis to fight forces trying to disrupt the country.
Mahmud Uthman, a member of the IGC, told
RFE/RL's Iraqi service last weekend that if the council
is disappointing US officials, much of the blame lies
with the Americans themselves for giving it too little
authority: "In my opinion, any failure can be blamed on
the American side. But, as I have always said, we in the
council must work very seriously, in accordance with our
authority, so we can make progress. Because if we fail,
the other side can blame it on the council."
The
council's frequent requests for more powers have
appeared to get little hearing from the Coalition
Provisional Authority (CPA), which retains the ultimate
political authority in the country. Press reports quote
US officials as saying privately that the council is
hobbled by infighting, particularly over the role of
Islam in the new Iraq and over how to hold elections
when a one-man, one-vote system would clearly favor the
majority Shi'ite community. Council members are also
said to be frequently absent from meetings as many seek
to protect or build their own local power bases.
However, if US officials have problems with the
council's divisions, they also have been surprised by
some of the decisions the unelected group has taken when
it does unite. Washington's plan to bring in Turkey as
the first Muslim country to help with peacekeeping in
Iraq was squelched by the council's opposition to the
plan. US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher
expressed Washington's reaction this way to Turkey's
announcement last week that it would not send soldiers
due to the council's position:
"Obviously, we
would have preferred if this had all worked out very
nicely to everybody's satisfaction," he said. "But let's
remember that the goal is stability in Iraq, and that
there is recognition on all our parts - the United
States side, Turkish, as well as the Iraqis - that maybe
this deployment at this time would not add to that goal
in the way that we had hoped it would."
At the
same time, the council has had serious differences with
the CPA over the pace of the planned privatization of
many elements of Iraq's non-oil economy. And Washington
has been unpleasantly surprised by the council's
reported interest in buying electricity from Syria and
Iran to ease Iraqi power shortages.
While
Washington now appears to increasingly believe its
political strategy for Iraq needs to be modified if
things are to work more smoothly, no US officials are
saying that the CPA intends to abandon the IGC entirely.
But some are suggesting that accelerating the country's
transition to a democracy might broaden political
representation in Iraq and help ease some of the
problems.
Reuters recently quoted one US
official in Baghdad as saying privately that the focus
now "is on getting the Iraqis to take over more and more
steadily according to the plan in UN Security Council
Resolution 1511". He added: "You can't do that by a
radical change in course, [but] that's not to say there
shouldn't be mid-course corrections."
UN
Security Council Resolution 1511, unanimously passed
last month, recognizes the IGC as embodying Iraq's
sovereignty during the transitional period and confirms
that Washington will turn over full power to Iraqis "as
soon as practicable".
Copyright (c) 2002,
RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut
Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
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