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Shi'ites raise new battle
cry
By Hooman Peimani
Contrary to US hopes, the killing of Saddam
Hussein's sons has not helped curb attacks on the US
troops occupying Iraq. The Americans therefore should be
concerned about a seeming increase in such attacks,
which they attribute to "pro-Saddam forces". However,
the growing radicalization of Iraqi Shi'ites, as
reflected in the creation of the "army of al-Mahdi",
heralds the widening of the anti-occupation movement
beyond the expectations of the US government.
 Last Thursday, about 10,000 young men reportedly
showed up in the holy city of Najaf to join the "army of
al-Mahdi". The volunteers had responded to a request by
Muqtada al-Sadr, a 30-year-old anti-American cleric with
an expanding following among the dissatisfied Iraqi
Shi'ites. The cleric has been trying to establish
himself as the leader of the Iraqi Shi'ites since the
fall of the Saddam Hussein regime.
His army is
named after Mahdi, the 12th Imam of the Shi'ites, who is
believed to have disappeared about 1,200 years ago.
Being a descendent of the Prophet Mohammad, the imam
will reappear to save the world when corruption and
oppression dominates, according to the Shi'ite faith.
His reappearance will therefore end tyrannical and
corrupt regimes. This concept of the promised savior (or
messiah) has existed in other religions and different
Islamic sects in various forms. Al-Sadr's choice of name
for his army indicates his intention to capitalize on
this belief's message, ie, fighting the oppressors, now
symbolized by the US occupying force. According to some
reports, an additional reason for this naming could be a
belief among some of al-Sadr's followers who consider
him as a Mahdi.
Using this concept to rally
people around an anti-occupation movement was tried in
another Islamic country, Sudan, in the late 19th
century. At that time, a cleric, Mohammed Ahmed,
declared himself the long-expected Mahdi and united the
Sudanese to fight the Egyptians and subsequently the
British, who became the de facto colonial power. The
poorly equipped and ill-trained Mahdi army's capture of
Khartoum guarded by the well-trained British troops was
a major defeat for the British in 1885 and who restored
their power only 13 years later.
As spelled out
by its leader, al-Sadr, the army of al-Mahdi will aim at
forcing US troops out of Iraq. On many occasions, he has
clearly demanded the end of the US occupation of Iraq as
a first step to give Iraqis an opportunity to choose
their desired political system, which he wants to be an
Islamic republic.
The army of al-Mahdi is yet to
become a military force to reckon with. Given the
growing opposition among the Iraqis, including the
Shi'ites, who account for 60 percent of the population,
there seems to be no shortage of recruits for this army.
In addition to those who showed up in Najaf, about 1,000
people from Baghdad's poor neighborhood of Saddam City,
now renamed al-Sadr City, responded to al-Sadr's call.
As for training and weapons, it is not clear how
the volunteers can be trained and armed given the US
concern about al-Sadr's followers. Sheikh Aws
al-Khafaji, al-Sadr's spokesman, refused to comment on
these issues and confined himself to stating: "I can't
say what weapons the army will have." However, he added,
"It will not fight with sticks, and it is not just a
large crowd of protesters. It is an army."
To
avoid any hostile US reaction, al-Sadr has declined to
declare war on the US troops since his emergence on the
political scene in the post-Saddam era. Until his call
last week for forming an army, his followers'
anti-American occupation activities had been confined to
demonstrations, apart from their extensive involvement
in relief work in cities such as Baghdad. Having the
mentioned concern in mind, "for the time being Muqtada
is not considering calling for jihad against the US
occupation", according to al-Khafaji, who added: "We
want to prove we are peaceful if [the Americans] are
peaceful." In addition to that concern, fear of
alienating ordinary people unprepared for an urban war
seems to be another reason for the peaceful policy.
"Muqtada wants [the volunteers] to get out of the
cities, but not out of Iraq now," stressed al-Khafaji,
who added: "Having troops in the cities frightens
people."
Peaceful methods are reportedly the
only current means for the al-Mahdi army to pursue its
objective. Yet it is not clear how this "peaceful"
policy can be compatible with creating an army, which,
by definition, should pursue a non-peaceful policy.
While there are many uncertainties about the future of
Iraq, it is quite certain that the deployment of US
troops is part of a plan for a long-term US presence in
that country. Given this fact, it is unrealistic to
expect them to leave in reaction to peaceful activities.
Even if the al-Mahdi army does not resort to arms, its
activities as part of the anti-American occupation
activities of al-Sadr's followers will lead to a
confrontation between the two sides at some point in the
future.
For the time being, both sides do not
see violence as an appropriate measure, for different
reasons. For al-Sadr, such a policy would inevitably
lead to a US crackdown on his followers for which they
are not ready. For the Americans, any attack on al-Sadr
or his followers would certainly lead to their
radicalization, an unwise scenario given the reported
significant backing for him among the Iraqi Shi'ites as
estimated to account for about 15 percent of the latter.
As the number of hit-and-run attacks on US troops and
their casualties increase, turning the al-Sadr followers
into active enemies would be unwise. Last month's show
of force of his followers should have convinced the
Americans of that point. Reportedly, a large crowd of
al-Sadr followers estimated at 10,000 gathered in Najaf
to prevent a few dozen US troops from detaining their
leader. The US troops' denial of that intention ended
the standoff peacefully.
Drawing on the massive
suppression of the Iraqi Shi'ites by the ousted Iraqi
regime, the Americans' hope for Shi'ite backing of their
occupation, or at least for Shi'ite neutrality, seems to
be an unrealistic expectation from a population under
occupation. As reflected in various demonstrations in
predominantly Shi'ite cities such as Najaf and Kerbela,
the growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among the
Shi'ites is preparing ground for widespread
anti-American attacks for which US troops do not seem to
be prepared. Although they are yet to become a military
force, the positive response of a significant number of
young Shi'ites to al-Sadr's call reflected their
community's potential to add a military dimension to its
expanding anti-American occupation protests.
Dr Hooman Peimani works as an
independent consultant with international organizations
in Geneva and does research in international
relations.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online
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