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Temperature rises in the
north
By Jean-Christophe Peuch
PRAGUE - With the war on Iraq entering its
second week, there is still no signs of large-scale
combat operations north of Baghdad.
For the past
six days or so, US warplanes and cruise missiles have
been pounding Iraqi positions around the industrial
cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, southwest of the country's
predominantly Kurdish region. The US Air Force has also
carried out several raids on Iraqi army bunkers near
Chamchamal, on the road that links Kirkuk to the Kurdish
town of Suleymaniah.
Further east, Kurdish
peshmergas (fighters) and US Special Forces have
been battling against a small, hard-line Islamic group
allegedly linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist
network. Ansar al-Islam, also known as Pishtiwanani
Islam la Kurdistan, is holding a string of villages
located between Halabjah and the Iranian border. Last
week, the group reportedly suffered a number of
casualties inflicted by US bombing. Another Islamic
group, Komala Islami Kurdistan, also came under
coalition air raids, which eyewitness say claimed the
lives of up to 100 people.
Despite an increasing
military presence, it seems that Washington has decided
to put the capture of Mosul, Kirkuk and their large oil
fields on the back burner. The military command of the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), one of the two main
factions that have been effectively running Iraq's north
since the end of the 1991 Gulf War, has said it has no
immediate plan to cross the demarcation line that
separates the region from Baghdad-controlled areas.
Press reports coming from the region suggest the
peshmerga rank-and-file, who earlier this week
sounded upbeat at the imminence of a northern assault,
are getting frustrated at the delay.
Phillip
Mitchell is a retired British career officer who now
works as a ground-forces analyst at the London-based
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He
says that one of the main missions assigned to US forces
is to assist PUK fighters in attacking Ansar al-Islam's
positions in Khurmal, near the Iranian border.
Another aim, Mitchell believes, is to plan and
carry out sabotage raids against Iraqi positions south
of the demarcation line. "With the special forces in
that area, what [the Americans] will be able to do is to
carry out guerrilla raids using the Kurds for local
knowledge of both the Iraqi locations and terrain,
harass [Iraqi soldiers], keep them on their toes, and by
doing this, by destroying bridges, command-and-control
sites, and that sort of things, hopefully, prevent them
from reinforcing the Baghdad area," Mitchell said.
Ellie Goldsworthy runs the UK Armed Forces
Program at the London-based Royal United Services
Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI). This former army
commanding officer believes coalition troops posted in
northern Iraq will make an important contribution to the
upcoming battle. "I think that one way or another these
troops are going to contribute to an element of
surprise, whether that is deception, diversion or
whatever it is. But it is going to contribute to the
problems that Saddam is going to face when the [battle]
for Baghdad happens," Goldsworthy said.
Goldsworthy believes that contrary to what
scarce reports coming from northern Iraq suggest, the
area is the scene of intense military preparations. In
confirmation of Goldsworthy's comments, the Pentagon
said that some 1,000 paratroopers had been dropped south
of the Turkish border. Tanks and armored vehicles will
follow soon to reinforce what a US official quoted as
"the first sizable force in northern Iraq".
The
possibility of an airlift operation was suggested
immediately after NATO member Turkey earlier this month
(March 1) denied the US authorization to deploy tens of
thousands of troops on its soil. Opening a second front
from neighboring Turkey to take the heat off a primary
invasion from Kuwait was part of Washington's original
war plans.
Confronted with Ankara's refusal,
however, the Pentagon had to adjust, diverting dozens of
warships anchored off Turkey's Mediterranean coast to
the Red Sea and recalling most of the military equipment
it had amassed north of the Iraqi border. The 4th
Mechanized Infantry Division, which was originally set
to enter Iraq from Turkey, is expected to deploy in the
Persian Gulf region in the coming days. Putting a bold
face on Turkey's surprise rebuke, US defense officials
have been saying that they have alternative northern
options, including plans that entail airlifting troops
from other countries in the region.
IISS analyst
Mitchell said an airborne assault on Iraqi positions
theoretically remains on the table, although he believes
any tactical aim would be difficult to achieve under
present circumstances. "There is a possibility that [an]
air-assault division will be used, but that's predicated
on all the Iraqi air defenses being almost totally
destroyed. We've seen in the past that the Iraqis have
substantial quantities of 'triple A' - anti-aircraft
artillery - and if it is still operational, that would
take a heavy toll, and probably a disastrous toll, on
any airborne forces or on any attempt to drop airborne
troops into that area. So it is problematical. I have my
doubts, but it is possible," Mitchell said.
Pressed by the White House, Turkey on March 21
reluctantly opened its airspace to US warplanes and
cruise missiles for strikes on Iraq. Much to
Washington's dismay, Ankara has been considering sending
a large military force into northern Iraq, officially to
stem any influx of refugees and prevent armed militants
of the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) from
crossing the border.
In the 1980s and 1990s, the
Turkish army led a successful, though costly, campaign
against outlawed PKK militants in southeastern Anatolia.
Many separatist fighters have sought refuge in Iraq,
prompting the Turkish army to carry out cross-border
forays and maintain hundreds of troops in northern Iraq
on a more-or-less permanent basis with the assent of
local Kurdish factions.
Ankara fears that, with
war in Iraq, PKK fighters might attempt to infiltrate
Iraqi Kurdish refugees to reignite separatism in
Anatolia. It is also concerned at the prospect of Iraq's
Kurdistan gaining official autonomy - a development it
says might politically impact on its 12 million-strong
Kurdish minority.
US-Turkish talks on Ankara's
planned troop deployment have so far yielded no result,
causing worry in Washington, which fears possible
clashes between peshmergas and Turkish soldiers
if Ankara beefs up its military presence deep into Iraqi
territory.
Turkish Army Chief of Staff General
Hilmi Ozkok has reiterated that Turkish reinforcements
will enter northern Iraq strictly for humanitarian and
security purposes and will not fight unless they are
fired at. He also pledged that any troop movement will
be coordinated with Washington.
The RUSI's
Goldsworthy said that all the US can hope for is that
Ankara does not enter the region before Baghdad is
secured and Saddam's regime collapses. Otherwise, she
said, Washington's northern plans might be disrupted.
"If Turkey pushes its forces more into Kurdish areas in
northern Iraq, that could cause problems for [US forces
positioned there] because instead of facing forward -
facing southwards and concentrating on Baghdad - they're
going to have to look over their shoulders to see what
they've left behind and to put troops in the rear. That
would tie up some of the American forces," Goldsworthy
said.
Goldsworthy believes that Washington will
be able to concentrate on coping with any new situation
rising from Turkish troop deployment in Kurdish areas
only after the fall of the Iraqi capital. "But at the
moment," she said, "it would be an unfortunate diversion
for the battle for Baghdad."
Copyright (c)
2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
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