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ANALYSIS
High-risk dash - Baghdad by Wednesday?
By Marc Erikson
"We have not seen on the battlefield a single coherent [Iraqi] military move
... We will be in the vicinity of Baghdad shortly," said US Centcom briefer and
deputy commander of allied forces Lt Gen John Abizaid in Doha, Qatar,
headquarters on Sunday. "We will lure them into a deadly quagmire around
Baghdad and extinguish them," retorted an Iraqi spokesman.
Nothing surprising in either statement. The ambush of a US army rearguard
supply unit near Naziriyah notwithstanding (with gruesome film footage of US
dead and captured later displayed on Iraqi and al-Jazeera TV), US forces'
high-speed advance on Baghdad is on target. Iraqi plans of mounting principal
defenses around and in Baghdad are well known. The question is how exactly this
will play out. On this, some bits of ancient as well as more recent history
might serve as a useful guide.
In the battle of Cannae (216 BC), invader Hannibal faced numerically superior
Roman forces. Both sides lined up in traditional fashion, infantry at the
center, cavalry on the flanks. As the superior Roman legionnaires advanced in
the center, Hannibal's infantry deliberately fell back while his cavalry,
supported by flanking infantry, enveloped the Romans and attacked them from the
rear. The battle turned into a rout. During the first Gulf War, Tommy Franks,
now Centcom chief in charge of the Iraq campaign, was assistant divisional
commander of the US 1st Cavalry, the officer responsible for division
maneuvering. He confronted two Republican Guard divisions (Nebuchadnezzar and
Tawakalna) and - along with the US 24th Infantry - enveloped and defeated them
Cannae style. Franks later called it a tough battle - but it was over in less
than 48 hours.
We have been treated to a TV spectacle of the advance of the US 3rd Infantry
from Kuwait to the environs of Baghdad at record speed. Nowhere and at no time
in history has mechanized infantry with major tank elements covered 300 miles
in less than 48 hours or anywhere near that time. Brigades of the 3rd Infantry
will likely start engaging Republican Guard brigades near Karbala in the course
of Monday local time and expect tough going. But will that be the major battle
ahead? It will likely make headlines. Meanwhile, however, it's of greater
interest what happens elsewhere. If it occurs at all, frontal assault at
Karbala, one of Shia Muslims' holiest cities, will be accompanied by flanking
actions to the west and east and a possible polar opposite drive from the north
by US and British units we have not seen on TV for 48 hours, but have hardly
been sitting still. These include the main force of the US 1st Marine
Expeditionary Force (with about 180 Abrams tanks), the British 1st Armored
Division (116 Challenger 2 tanks), the US 101st Airborne Division, a brigade of
the 82nd Airborne, and possibly the 173rd Airborne Brigade from Italy. Nor is
it likely that the US 4th Infantry is still sitting patiently on vessels in the
eastern Mediterranean waiting on the Turkish parliament.
The US/UK campaign to date has demonstrated an extraordinary degree of
flexibility, making use of each and every element afforded by the "revolution
in military affairs" (RMA) due to integration into US armed forces of advanced
technological means in intelligence, reconnaissance, precision targeting, and
individual and unit mobility and fire power. New as well is the extensive use
of Special Operations and CIA paramilitary forces, which adds punch, precision,
and the ability of force multiplication through enlistment of local allies and
irregulars. Norman Schwarzkopf, allied commander during the Gulf War, had a
strong aversion to the "snake-eaters" and made little use of them. Tommy Franks
saw them operate successfully in Afghanistan and relies on them for execution
of key tasks. Overall, the campaign so far has deviated markedly from the
Powell doctrine of methodical employment of overwhelming force and cautiously
sequenced use of air power and ground forces. G-day (commencement of ground
operations) preceded A-day (beginning of air strikes). Total ground forces
deployed number less than half of Gulf War troops. This makes "Operation Iraqi
Freedom" a much higher-risk undertaking, but calculated and calibrated to be
concluded in closer to two weeks than the six weeks of the Gulf War campaign.
After a weekend of some headline grabbing events marking US-led forces'
setbacks, but routine developments on the military front, Monday will see
further positioning for the battle for Baghdad. That battle could be joined as
early as 48 hours from now. Certain only is that it won't shape up as merely or
even mainly the old-fashioned armored-units collision at the "Karbala gap" the
talking TV heads tell us to expect.
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