JERUSALEM - Israel has been put on a
partial war footing ahead of the imminent United States
attack on Iraq. The government has called up reservists
and urged people to prepare sealed rooms in the event of
a chemical or biological attack by Iraq.
Defense
Minister Shaul Mofaz called the instructions routine.
But Israel has been preparing for months for a war in
Iraq, and the government has welcomed the US ultimatum
to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The cabinet is due to
convene soon to assess further the danger to Israel in
the event of a war.
Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles
at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War. They caused some
damage but few deaths. They were all armed with
conventional warheads. Experts say that there is little
likelihood of such missiles reaching Israel this time.
On the other hand, if Saddam does fire weapons into
Israel, they are more likely to be armed with chemical
or biological warheads.
"Saddam Hussein has
nothing to lose now," says Efraim Inbar, head of the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel's
Bar-Ilan University. "If he does manage to fire missiles
at Israel he is much less constrained than in 1991 to
use chemical or biological weapons."
But Inbar
says that the chances of any Scuds reaching Israel are
lower now because Israeli anti-missile defenses are much
better equipped with the new Arrow anti-missile system
and improved Patriot missiles. Also, Saddam is thought
to have only a few Scuds left.
Washington has
reassured Israel that preventing the firing of Scuds
will be a priority. "The Americans will do everything to
keep Israel out of the war," says Inbar. The US has also
said that it will expect Israel to retaliate if it is
attacked. The Israeli army did not respond in 1991. That
led to an erosion of Israel's deterrent capacity, says
Inbar. "Because we did not do anything last time, it is
much more likely we would retaliate this time."
Some local reports claim that Israeli special
forces are already operating in western Iraq to prevent
the launch of Scuds. Reports last week that Iraq was
positioning Scud missiles to hit Israel turned out to be
unfounded. But Israelis are taking few chances. The
tell-tale cardboard boxes containing gas masks have
started to appear again. People are stocking up on
water, plastic sheeting and tape to seal off rooms.
As in 1991, the greatest danger seems to be
panic rather than Iraqi missiles. Three people have
suffocated to death already in a sealed room. A mother
and her two children sealed a room and went to sleep
with a coal-fired stove on. The Israeli Home Front
Command has given no instructions to people yet to move
into sealed rooms.
People in the Palestinian
territories are getting as worried as in Israel, but the
Palestinian Authority has not issued gas masks. Israelis
who effectively control most of the West Bank have not
taken any steps either. Palestinians can buy gas masks
but they are expensive. A pharmacy in El-Bireh near
Ramallah is selling them at US$200 each. Masks are
distributed free in Israel. Tourists and immigrant
workers can get them for $50, of which $25 is a
refundable deposit.
Palestinians are worried
that Israel will take advantage of the focus of the
world's attention on Iraq to take more measures against
them. Israeli and Palestinian peace activists have
established a joint committee to keep an eye on the
government during a war in Iraq.
"The emergency
committee was established in view of the fear that the
[Ariel] Sharon government will take advantage of the war
on Iraq in order to implement its long term objectives,"
the group said in a statement. The activists point out
that the situation in the Palestinian territories has
deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. This and
other political groups are working to restrain the
Israeli government. The Hizbollah movement in the north
is expected to be restrained by its Syrian and Iranian
patrons.
