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Military buildup, by the
numbers
By Ian Urbina
It is
extremely difficult to attain solid and dependable
numbers for the deployment of United States and United
Kingdom military personnel in the Middle East currently
positioned for an invasion of Iraq. These figures are
also constantly shifting as troops are being
supplemented daily. Nevertheless, it is possible to
offer a snapshot with some rough estimates at the
present moment.
US buildup
Within the
last week and a half, the US Department of Defense
reported that the total force strength in the relevant
arena known as Central Command (also called CENTCOM) as
211,000, with roughly half of those numbers in Kuwait.
Over 1,000 total aircraft (across different military
divisions) have already arrived for duty. In prior
years, the theater of operations surrounding Iraq has
seen on average between 20,000 and 25,000 soldiers at
any given time, and 200 aircraft.
The air force
has seen a marked increase. Before the "war on terror",
there were roughly 6,200 personnel in the area
surrounding Iraq, with 1,700 based at Incirlik in
southeastern Turkey. Presently, the air force has over
23,000 personnel in place, with more than 500 aircraft
of widely varied types.
The army presence is
also considerable, with an estimated 64,000 soldiers.
The number normally mobilized in the region is 3,700.
Most of all, though, it is the navy that has
witnessed the biggest spike. A total number between
8,000 and 15,000 troops have been positioned in the area
throughout the 1990s. At present, there are 125,000 navy
personnel waiting for duty.
As of late February,
there were five Carrier Battle Groups in the area, each
with an associated Carrier Air Wing, usually consisting
of 11,000 sailors. There were also two large amphibious
groups on the ready, each with about 1,700 sailors,
1,500 Marines and 700 Marine aviators.
These
total navy units also possess about 500 helicopters and
aircraft, and nearly 2,142 Vertical Launch System cells
available for Tomahawk cruise missiles. This is roughly
three times the average number of Tomahawk cells
deployed in recent years. More than 1,000 Tomahawks are
already ready for launch, and these numbers can be
increased on very short notice.
British
buildup
Great Britain has said that it will place
a total of 45,000 military personnel in the field, drawn
disparately from the army, the Royal Air Force (RAF),
and the navy. At present, Operation TELIC, as the
buildup is named, is close to completion.
Overall, the British deployment includes a
17-ship naval task force led by the aircraft carrier Ark
Royal, 120 Challenger tanks (said to be the best
fighting tanks in the world), 100-odd fighters, bombers
and support airplanes, and 27 support helicopters.
The army already has 26,000 troops encamped in
northern Kuwait. In all probability, this is as many as
will arrive. Those British ground forces not based in
Kuwait are in Qatar for a land invasion of Iraq
alongside US troops and armor battalions. Some special
forces may also be waiting in northern Iraq and Jordan.
Of the RAF's 100 fixed-wing aircraft, many are
still en route. Squadrons will be stationed at airfields
in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Prior to the
commencement of Operation TELIC, the RAF already had 21
aircraft and 1,000 personnel in the Middle East region
generally. For the past several years there have been
roughly 3,000 British air force personnel involved in
patrolling the northern and southern no-fly zones of
Iraq. In February, the RAF announced that it would be
increasing the size of its presence to 7,000 personnel
and 100 aircraft.
The role of the navy,
currently on station in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of
Oman, is an amphibious task group, carrying Royal Marine
commandos, of which presently 4,000 are mobilized. These
marines may be used in an amphibious assault alongside
their US counterparts. The navy also transports the
Marine helicopters. Two British submarines currently
deployed can fire cruise missiles.
Despite being
miniscule in numbers next to the US presence, the
British deployment is quite noteworthy. Not only is it
significantly larger than was the British attendance in
the 1991 Gulf War, but it also runs a risk of
over-stretch as over a quarter of the entire British
military will be engaged in the invasion of Iraq. This
is especially unusual in light of the fact that Great
Britain also has large numbers of its military spread
across Afghanistan, the Balkans and Northern Ireland.
Iraqi buildup
The most certain thing
about Iraq's military is that it was considerably
weakened by the 1991 Gulf War. At the start of that war,
Iraq possessed the world's fifth-largest armed forces,
with nearly 950,000 troops. Iraq also possessed more
than 5,000 tanks and almost 4,000 artillery pieces. By
the end of the war, the Iraqi army was reduced to less
than 360,000 and the bulk of its hardware was
demolished. In subsequent years, the Iraqis were forced
to cannibalize many vehicles for the parts needed to
keep more advanced equipment in service.
The
present picture is opaque. There are an estimated
350,000 Iraqi soldiers, but their preparedness is an
open question. The country has 100,000 additional
reservists on call. Much of the army's lower ranks
consists of conscripts. Some US intelligence estimates
state that half of all of Iraqi army equipment lacks
spare parts.
The Special Republican Guard, which
consists of about 26,000 men, is overseen by Saddam
Hussein's son, Qusay, and these elite-trained and
highly-screened forces hold the specific
responsibilities of protecting Baghdad and safeguarding
Saddam’s government.
Iraq has 2,000 estimated
navy personnel with an unknown number of fast patrol
boats and 1 Soviet Osa I patrol craft equipped with
surface-to-surface missiles.
If intelligence
from the Iraqi National Congress is to be trusted, the
Iraqi air force has 350 operational aircraft, but US
intelligence agencies put the serviceability of the
Iraqi fixed wing aircraft at around 55 percent. The
total personnel number for the air force is around
20,000. Serviceability of helicopters is rated as poor
and senior pilots are believed to have no more than
90-120 flying hours, while junior pilots have as little
as 20 hours of flight time. In terms of fighter jets,
Iraq may have around 180 MiG-23s and MiG-25s, but only a
fraction still function, having received necessary parts
via Syria.
US and British forces will be hoping
to immediately take out all surface-to-surface and
surface-to-air missiles still in the Iraqi arsenal, if
indeed there are any. The estimated number of Scuds is
six, but the type and number of other sorts of missiles
is not specifically fully known.
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