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Saddam's northern
trap
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
BAGHDAD - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has not been
seen publicly for a long time now. However, he is not
holed up at any of his palaces. He is on the move, some
times within Baghdad, and at times in other Iraqi
cities, where he meets party leaders and officials and
also some religious leaders.
In the outside world,
there is an impression that Iraq has already been
besieged. In northern Iraq, US army units are already
inside the country, sitting and waiting for the attack
that will signal them to march on Mosul, Tikrit and
Baghdad.
Saddam knew several months ago that in
the event of war the north of Iraq would be the thorn
in his flesh. He has been thinking about this problem
for several months, and there are reports that he
believes that he has finally found a strong and
indigenous support system which may hinder US forces
marching on Baghdad.
The link between Saddam and
the anti-US elements in Kurdistan with whom he might
find common cause is Iraqi Deputy President Izzat
Ibrahim, who is believed to have contacted Sheikh
Mostafa in the Arbil governate in northern Iraq a long
time ago.
Sheikh Mostafa is a sheikh
(spiritual teacher) of the Naqshband school
of Sufis. From 1990 and onwards, some militant
strains became established in this Sufi school, especially
in Central Asia. As a result, the school forged its
influence among Afghans and Chechen fighters and also took
some Kurd leaders into its influence. This is one of
the reasons that Chechens and Taliban leader Mullah
Omar (both associated with the Naqshband school) became
allies and fought side by side. This is also one of
the reasons that Jalal Talabani of the Patriotic Union
of Kurdistan (PUK) - said to be a Mostafa disciple -
went to Afghanistan in solidarity with Mullah Omar when
the latter was ruler of Afghanistan.
Since
Sheikh Mostafa has the most significant position in the
Naqshband school of Sufis, not only in Iraq but all over
the world, many Chechen fighters have been seen in
northern Iraq over the years.
It may seem surprising
to many outside Iraq that Izzat Ibrahim, despite
being a member of the Iraqi Arab Ba'ath Socialist
Party, is at the same time a Sufi Muslim. Izzat
is associated with the Qadri and Rifai school of Sufis
and holds regular meetings twice a week (Monday and
Thursday) of his disciples. Initially Saddam opposed him
going to mosques on Fridays, as it apparently had a negative
impact on the party cadre. Later, he imposed a condition
that Izzat could go to a mosque only if he went
to a different mosque every time to prevent people
thinking that he was a religious person. However, Izzat
remains defiant of this condition - he still religiously
says his Friday prayers at the Sheikh Abdul Qadir Mosque
in Baghdad.
Sources contend that through Sheikh
Mostafa, Saddam has made links with Kurdish fighters of
the fundamentalist group Ansar al-Islam as well as a
circle of people loyal to Mostafa in the Kurdish areas.
With this strategy Saddam has tried to build pockets of
"in-house" resistance in northern Iraq with an eye
toward preventing the US army from reaching even
oil-rich Mosul easily.
From the beginning, the
outside world has imagined that northern Iraq would be a
vulnerability for Saddam: but perhaps the resistance
guerrilla force he is encouraging will create
difficulties for the US army. In fact, Saddam's real
weakness is in the southern zone of Shi'ite dissidents.
In the north, many surprises may be in store for the US.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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