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Basra: Trojan Horse awaits
Saddam
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
AMMAN, Jordan - Before the 1991 Gulf War, Basra
was called the Venice of Iraq because of its beautiful
Shatul Arab River, which flows through the city. Now
this exquisite beauty of the past is likely to become
one of the focal points of the upcoming war.
Basra is the center of a southern Shi'ite belt
of rebellion. Officially speaking, the Shi'ites in Iraq
form 52 percent of the population, but in fact they are
closer to 60 percent, and in the south, they are an
overwhelming majority - almost 90 percent of the
population. They also retain good ties with Iran. During
the previous Gulf War, when US forces attacked Basra, it
was the Shi'ite population that immediately welcomed
them as they oppose the Sunni-dominated government of
Saddam. They attacked Iraqi military installations and
the offices of the Iraqi Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party,
and looted the houses of minority Sunnis and Christians,
who make up the main Ba'ath support base. Saddam
brutally crushed the rebellion, and even reportedly used
chemical and other weapons on the Shi'ite population.
Sources say that at a time when another war on
Iraq seems inevitable, Basra has taken on a main role as
a strategic point for both US troops and Saddam's army.
The south will play a more important role than the
north, from where US army units have already landed.
Basra is the only port city of Iraq and
therefore the main financial artery.The Bikar oil
terminal is a floating jetty in the Arabian Gulf. It is
the last point where Saddam is in control. After this
point, 65 miles away, US warships are present to attack
Iraq.
On February 12, US planes made
extraordinary flights over Basra, which is a no-fly zone
for Iraq, hitting, for the first time in months, a
surface-to-surface missile assembly [see Harbinger
of war in Basra, Feb 14]. According to a local
resident, overflights are normal in this city, but in
the past several days these flights - occurring at very
high altitude - have tremendously increased.
Although Saddam is concerned with the situation
in the south, no overt military activity is visible in
the city. On the city's outskirts, Saddam's palace is
situated near the shore of the Shatul Arab river. On the
other side of that palace, farms of date trees begin
which extend all the way to shore. Before the first Gulf
War, 486 varieties of dates and and more than a million
trees were fed by an exemplary canal system. Today the
farms still show partial damage from the bombings that
ensued. There is evidence of recent cuttings made
apparently to pave the way for Iraqi tanks and heavy
artillery. This is the point where Iraq has mainly
concentrated its installations to retaliate against US
forces.
Inside the city, fear prevails -
especially among the minority Sunni population, which
has a previous bitter experience of Shi'ite retaliation.
The Sunnis are cognizant of the fact that Basra Shi'ites
remain in contact with the Iranian-based dissident Iraqi
leader Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, and that they would
likely stand up against Saddam once the US attacks.
These Shi'ites in the south will be the main foot
soldiers against Saddam when US planes begin dropping
bombs, a prominent businessman in Basra told this
correspondent.
As a result of the situation, the
Sunnis of Basra hold regular weekly meetings every
Thursday to discuss means for surviving and controlling
the majority Shi'ites in case of rebellion, the
businessman added.
Basra is just 600 kilometers
from Baghdad; strategically, it is an easy target for
the naval and air assaults designed to incite rebellion
in the south. Although the urban Shi'ite population in
Baghdad is said to be loyal to Saddam, it is in
outskirts such as Sora, in the east, where Saddam fears
rebellion. Iraqi intelligence is already tracking
connections between the Shi'ites of Sora and Baqir
al-Hakim in Iran and expect a rebellion once US wages
war, just as happened in 1991.
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