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THE ROVING
EYE
Clues from ancient
Babylon
By Pepe Escobar
CAIRO
- All the Arab capitals - as much as Washington - wish
he would just go away. He won't. As an unusually
exasperated diplomat remarked in Geneva: "It's not about
Iraq. It's not about inspections. It's not about oil.
It's about one man really. Why doesn't he just ...
disappear? Osama bin Laden - yesterday's villain,
untraceable, uncatchable - remains in the shadows, like
a specter. Saddam Hussein - unlike Osama - is in your
face, our face, everybody's faces, everyday on Iraqi TV,
a creepy, stony remake of a Babylonian emperor chairing
meetings with army officers and security agencies.
Osama bin Laden has not lost his gift for
timing. Even before George W Bush, with religious
exaltation and crusader spirit, talked about the State
of the Union, Osama, with religious exaltation and
crusader spirit, was purportedly talking about the state
of the umma. He has sent a 26-page text with his
"trademark secret signature" to the Islamic Center for
Studies and Research in Pakistan. The text was obtained
by the Saudi-owned newspaper Al-Sharq Al Awsat, and the
story was published on January 26. In the text, Osama
stresses that Muslims should "enter into the blessed
obligation of jihad by highlighting the importance of
unity and eliminating differences of opinion".
It's not a coincidence that this call for unity
happens just as the war against Iraq seems inevitable.
Millions of angry and frustrated Muslims - especially in
the Middle East - are bound to echo Osama when he asks:
"When will Muslims wake up from their long sleep, and
when will they distinguish between their friend and
enemy? When will they direct their own arrows that they
use to fight each other to their external enemy that
steals and loots its fortunes and its resources?"
Dictatorial Arab regimes tremble when they hear these
words. They know "regime change" is not applicable to
Osama, but they also know Osama wants to apply his own
version of "regime change" to them.
As far as
Washington is concerned, in the absence of Osama, Saddam
Hussein remains the next best option. Colin Powell
himself recognized after a meeting with Pakistan's
Foreign Minister that Saddam's exile - along with his
family and the leadership of the Revolutionary Command
Council (RCC) - plus immunity, would be the ideal
solution. Powell even hinted that if the UN approved it,
the US might go for it. A few days before Powell, Donald
Rumsfeld had already said that an arrangement like this
"would be a fair trade to avoid a war".
Washington wants something that Baghdad will
never deliver. Egyptian politician Farouq Goweida says
why: "The US is probably aware that if Saddam dies under
American bombing, he will become a symbol of resistance
for the Arab world. So obviously they will refuse him
the privilege. That's why his only way out is to remain
in Baghdad." On January 17, Ali Hasan Al Majid, aka
"Chemical Ali" (he is the alleged mastermind of the
gassing of Iraqi Kurds in 1988 and one of Saddam 's
cousins), visited Syria. "Chemical Ali" is as close to
the leader as you can get: he manages Saddam's personal
affairs. Obviously he dismissed all the speculation
about exile as "absurd".
Mohsen Khalil, Iraq's
ambassador to Egypt, in an analysis that could have been
penned by Osama himself, also dismissed the rumors as
"another example of US propaganda and lies where they
leak information that is not true so that they can
create a rift between Arab leaders". And in another echo
of Osama's call for unity, the ambassador said that
"Arab leaders refuse to interfere in the internal
political affairs of other nations, because they know if
it happens in Iraq, it will happen to them next".
Colin Powell certainly does not believe in the
exile option, and is now getting ready for the pitch of
his life next Wednesday at the Security Council, the new
key date set by Washington. President Bush is very
clear: the US will consult with the UN, but if Saddam
does not disarm, in the name of security and peace, the
US will lead a coalition and go to war.
George W
Bush has not declared war, not yet. But he has announced
it. He didn't lay down an ultimatum. But he formulated
it. With one stroke, Bush smashed the importance of the
meeting this past Wednesday where the inspectors's
report was discussed at the Security Council; smashed
the importance of the new report to be presented on
February 14 (a German proposal); and imposed on the UN
his own calendar - faster, and with a very clear
objective. The date that matters now is February 5, when
Powell presents the alleged new evidence capable of
convicting Saddam's regime. Very important: Bush never
pronounced the word "resolution". This means that as far
as Washington is concerned the war won't depend on a UN
vote in a new resolution; the war depends on a clear
choice by Saddam Hussein, right here, right now.
In a secret document titled "What does
disarmament look like", leaked in the beginning of this
week, the White House accuses Qusai, Saddam's youngest
son and heir, of organizing the dissimulation of Iraqi
means of production and storage of weapons of mass
destruction. According to the document, the Iraqi
organization put in place to aid the inspectors works as
an "anti-inspector corps". These "anti-inspectors" are
supposed to be scientists capable of protecting
sensitive installations from the UN operation. The White
House document says these scientists are much larger in
number than the inspectors, and they also get help from
"thousands of others, coming from all Iraqi security
agencies", in a mission to "hide documents and materials
from the inspectors". According to the White House
document, Qusai Hussein - the head of the Special
Security Organization (SSO) - controls the whole
operation. Normally, Qusai heads the Jihaz Al-Amn
Al-Khas (Special Security Service), created in 1984 and
listing some 5,000 officials charged with protecting
sensitive sites.
The White House document goes
even further, saying that a whole basket of security
agencies is engaged in preventing the UN from working
properly. These include operatives from the military
industry; the special division in charge of the security
of Baghdad; military intelligence (with as much as 6,000
agents); the Republican Guard; and the Special
Republican Guard (with as many as 100,000 personnel).
It's practically certain that Colin Powell will present
this kind of evidence to the UN next week, along with a
battery of Ikonos satellite images of movement of
sensitive material, and photos of recent mosques or
hospitals built inside or around military sites
considered to be certified bombing targets.
As
far as the al-Qaeda-Baghdad connection goes, things are
much more complicated. It's fair to assume Powell's
presentation will rely on confessions obtained by US
intelligence in Guantanamo, Cuba. European intelligence
agencies don't believe in the veracity of the
information, but American intelligence says al-Qaeda
"enemy combatants" confessed having received chemical
products from Iraq for their training. Al-Qaeda
operatives may have been to Iraq for training (very
unlikely), and Iraqis may have been to Afghan training
camps (very likely, as Asia Times Online confirmed in
August 2001).
Saddam Hussein, as expected,
remains defiant. According to a source inside Iraq,
Saddam said this week on Iraqi TV that everybody should
be inspired by the suicide-bombing of "our Palestinian
brothers". It appears that Qusai - now on TV every day -
along with army generals, has been charged by Saddam to
organize the key Iraqi defense around Baghdad.
Another US option would be to simply exterminate
Saddam: CIA and Special Forces operating in Iraqi
Kurdistan have authority to use lethal force. According
to a presidential order signed by Bush in 2002, it's now
legal for Americans to assassinate foreign leaders or
civilians. Many within the Bush administration believe
assassinating Saddam is an unrivalled option in terms of
cost-benefit.
It's unlikely the legal killer
brigade has reached the gates of Baghdad yet: At the
moment they are supposed to be training opposition
Kurdish and Shia leaders, and also scouting for
potential landing strips to be used in case of war.
Nonetheless they can rely on a massive armory of
satellites monitoring the phone calls and walkie-talkie
transmissions of Saddam and his generals. A converted
Boeing 707, called a RC-135 Rivet Joint, flies up to 10
hours a day at 35,000 feet over Iraq, intercepting all
phone calls and identifying callers' locations with a
minimal margin of error. Two satellites are dedicated to
tracking Saddam. The Micron Spy satellite, stationed
more than 33,000km above the Middle East, picks up phone
calls and sends them to a US listening base in
Yorkshire, England. The Trumpet satellite picks up
cellphone calls and sends them to a base in Colorado.
It's unlikely Saddam Hussein has been using a
phone, mobile or otherwise, these days. Nobody on the
planet can tell for sure how will he choose to exit from
History. When he delivered his speech for the 12th
anniversary of the Gulf War - known as "Mother of All
Battles" in Iraq - he compared the next Desert Storm to
the 1258 conquest of Baghdad by the Mongols. The Mongols
destroyed the city and killed Al-Mustasim, the last
Abbasid caliph. The caliph died fighting. The reference
matches Saddam's recent eulogy of Palestinian suicide
bombers.
But only a few days before this speech,
Saddam told his army commanders that Gilgamesh - the
legendary king of Uruk - decided to abdicate from the
throne and wander the earth "in search of the secret of
immortality". One thing is certain: Saddam is no Shah of
Iran. So how will he play it? As a martyr, like the last
Abbasid caliph? Or as a philosopher-king, like
Gilgamesh?
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