Middle East

Iraqi exiles throwing elbows
By David Isenberg

As the world waits and watches to hear from UN weapons inspectors in Iraq, it is business as usual for the Iraqi opposition groups on the outside - that is to say, tumultuous, disorganized and mostly feuding.

The US military has begun training 5,000 Iraqi exiles to fight along with allied troops should an invasion finally occur. And, according to Zaab Sethna, a senior member of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), the political leadership of the Iraqi opposition abroad, a second group of 10,000 will begin training in a matter of weeks.

On Sunday, six exiled Iraqi opposition groups settled a feud that had delayed a meeting to discuss their possible role in toppling Saddam Hussein, according to an Iraqi dissident. In a US-brokered compromise, INC leader Ahmed Chalabi backed off demands to bring 300 more of his supporters to the meeting, expected to be dominated by his powerful political rivals.

Reportedly five US mediators from the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council worked out the compromise during meetings on Saturday in London. US Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman pressed the dissidents to speed up the convening of a broad conference on Iraq's future. Grossman said that the proposed conference should choose a committee to consult with all sectors of Iraqi society about the country's future should Saddam be ousted.

The sides agreed to bring just 40 more delegates to the meeting, said Hamid al-Bayati, a spokesman for the six groups. That means about 300 delegates will attend in all.

This opens the way for a November 22 meeting in Brussels - originally scheduled for September - which is supposed to serve as a showcase of emerging cooperation among opponents of Saddam. The delegates are expected to debate ways in which the six groups can help oust Saddam and form a possible government afterward.

But the opposition remains deeply divided and negotiations will be tough. The opposition groups have not held a unity conference since 1997. The main reason that they are holding one now is that the Bush administration has been encouraging them for several months to resolve their longstanding differences and to lay the groundwork for the creation of an interim government should, or when, Hussein be deposed.

But the latest dispute has raised new questions about whether the groups can ever work together and underscored the pitfalls of trying to create an alternative Iraqi government. The groups have deep ideological differences and mistrust of each other. Each side has accused the others of trying to use the conference to gain control of a post-Hussein Iraqi government.

The Iraqi opposition is split along sectarian, ethnic, clan and political lines. The rivalries have grown more intense with the prospect of a US-led war to oust Saddam. The Iraqi National Congress is also clashing with the State Department over US$8 million in funding for propaganda, humanitarian and other programs it is supposed to oversee. A much-heralded INC "information-gathering" operation inside Iraq has yet to get off the ground, the officials said, because of uncertainty in the Bush administration about the INC's ability to get and relay useful intelligence.

Meanwhile, according to a news report coming out of London, a confidential report setting out how Iraq should be run after the ousting of Saddam has divided the administration of President George W Bush and ignited a damaging row between exiles vying for power.

The report, funded by the State Department in Washington and drawn up by more than 30 Iraqi intellectuals, urges that Saddam and his inner circle be tried for war crimes, while mid and low-level officials from his ruling Ba'ath party face truth and reconciliation hearings modeled on South Africa's post-apartheid commission. It recommends an amnesty for those who join in opposing Saddam in the event of an American invasion. The proposals also include restitution of property confiscated by the Saddam government, along the lines of post-Nazi Germany.

While such measures are broadly supported by the main groups of Iraqi dissidents and by officials in Washington, the report's recommendations for a transitional government have become the focus of bitter controversy.

The proposals are contained in a draft document entitled "A Report on the Transition to Democracy in Iraq". It has been drawn up under the auspices of Kanan Makiya, an Iraqi writer and Harvard academic who has chronicled Saddam's reign of terror, and ally of Ahmed Chalabi, heads of the INC.

Makiya and his fellow authors have called for a transitional government to be elected by a conference of exiles. They say that this government, whose first priority would be to limit disruption caused by the disintegration of Saddam's authority, should be chosen on the basis of "professional and individual capability rather than political representation".

The report is scathing about the state of the Iraqi opposition, saying, "No Iraqi Arab political organization on the scene today has been tested and can be said to be truly representative." While the White House and the Pentagon are understood to support the proposals, the State Department is concerned that a transitional government of professional people chosen on merit would be dominated by the INC.

Chalabi supports the findings of the report on Iraq's transition to democracy, which envisages an executive and a national assembly. However, the smaller opposition groups, including two Kurdish parties, fear that their role would become marginal if the proposals were enacted, and are vigorously opposing them.

And last but not least is a report in the new issue of American Prospect magazine. It says that Chalabi is the "front man for the latest incarnation of a long-time neoconservative strategy to redraw the map of the oil-rich Middle East, put American troops - and American oil companies - in full control of the Persian Gulf's reserves and use the Gulf as a fulcrum for enhancing America's global strategic hegemony".

According to the article, once an occupying US army seizes Baghdad, Chalabi's INC and its American backers are spinning scenarios about dismantling Saudi Arabia, seizing its oil and collapsing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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Nov 19, 2002



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