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Groundpounders to the war
zone
By David Isenberg
It
took over four months, but the war debate is over. No,
not the question of whether or not to invade Iraq. The
idea that the United States would not seek to invade
Iraq was never seriously in doubt. But what was how to
do it - whether to use either large numbers of ground
forces or some variant of special operations forces
combined with native opposition forces, plus air power,
a la the Afghan model.
And the winner is ... the
groundpounders, and General Tommy Franks, head of the US
Central Command, which would run any military campaign
against Iraq.
According to an article in the
November 10 New York Times, the same paper to which
details of the original war plan were leaked in early
July, the plan, approved well before the UN Security
Council's unanimous vote on November 8 to disarm Iraq,
calls for massing 200,000 to 250,000 troops for attack
by air, land and sea.
Such numbers push back the
start of an invasion to next year. The US-based Global
Security.org calculates that an invasion would begin not
later than February 22. Previously, it had predicted
that military operations could begin as early as
November 28. The revised assessment takes into account
the unanimous UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which
gives Iraq fixed timelines for acknowledging the
resolution by November 15, declaring its weapons
programs by December 9, and setting a 60-day period for
re-admitted UN weapons inspectors to report on progress.
While US conservatives publicly grumble about
the UN, the Security Council resolution is actually
helpful to the Bush administration. According to an
analysis by military analyst William Arkin in the Los
Angeles Times, "The inspections process will improve the
political climate for eventual action and buy time for
the Pentagon to get ready. The war that Bush and his
team think is necessary and inevitable will thus come
with the approval of both Congress and the UN.
Meanwhile, one of the main practical obstacles to war
with Iraq will have been dealt with: the enormous
infrastructure needed to supply and sustain today's
armed forces against Iraq is being constructed on the
foundations of the system created for the war in
Afghanistan."
According to the plan, United
States and coalition forces could seize territory and
operate out of forward bases in northern, western and
southern Iraq. This is similar to the notion of the
three-pronged attack described in the earlier war plan.
In western Iraq, troops would seek to prevent
Iraqi missile attacks on Israel and other neighbors. In
the northern Kurdish territory, where Iraqi opposition
leaders say that the CIA and possibly Special Forces
troops have already scouted out airfields, troops would
set up staging and refueling bases. In the south, troops
would move in from Kuwait to seize key facilities around
the port of Basra.
The large number of forces
tracks closely with a scenario outlined in the
March/April issue of Foreign Affairs, which called for
an invasion force involving four to six divisions
totaling 200,000 to 300,000 troops plus supporting
troops, 700-1,000 planes and anywhere from one to five
carrier battle groups.
Even with large numbers,
though, the war is unlikely to be won easily or without
consequences. A war game held on October 23 by the Saban
Center of the Brookings Institution found that with "the
deployment of an overwhelming force of nearly 300,000
troops, the US "won" the war. However, under the
constrained political circumstances in which the United
States was forced to fight the war, Iraq's counterattack
efforts strained US capabilities and created problems
elsewhere in the region deleterious to US interests."
But regardless of the total number of troops
involved, military preparations for the war have been
steadily continuing. The fact that deployments of
personnel and equipment have been taking place while the
UN Security Council debated the resolution shows how
eager US military planners are to have all their pieces
in place.
Currently, there are over 35,000 US
soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines in the Persian
Gulf area, and more are arriving. Most US troops are
stationed in Kuwait, either in a series of desert tent
camps strung along the Iraqi border or in Camp Doha,
with an estimated 10,000 troops, which acts as the army
command base. A few hundred are in Saudi Arabia and in
Qatar.
In the desert near Kuwait's border with
Iraq, military convoys and helicopters are sighted
regularly. They are believed to be ferrying troops and
equipment into the new "military zone" recently declared
along the border. Covering almost a quarter of Kuwait,
the zone has provided a closed arena for US troops to
begin exercises before an invasion of Iraq. In early
November a brigade combat team of the 3rd Infantry
Division moved out of Camp Doha into the desert for a
extensive series of exercises that will culminate in
live firing by Abrams tanks later in the month.
Currently two armored brigades are known to be
in the emirate, and Kuwaiti military sources say that
since June the tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and
other heavy equipment for one to two more armored
brigades have arrived. This would allow a further 10,000
GIs to fly in, link up with the heavy equipment, and be
ready for combat in 72 hours. Plans are under way to
move the heavy equipment for another US division, to
equip in excess of 18,000 troops, into Kuwait by
December.
On November 6, Kuwait's Ministry of
Defense confirmed that a refueling depot for helicopters
and fighter jets was being built within the zone, along
with a runway for aircraft carrying military freight. US
aircraft are in Turkey's Incirlik airbase, Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. B-2 bombers are also
being moved to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.
Two US aircraft carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS
George Washington, are already in the region. Although
the Lincoln and the Washington are scheduled to return
home by the end of the year, their deployment could be
extended by one month.
Another three, USS
Constellation, USS Nimitz and USS Harry Truman, are
expected to arrive in December and January, while the
carrier USS Kitty Hawk slipped out of Japan late October
for an undisclosed destination.
The USS Carl
Vincent aircraft carrier group began training exercises
well ahead of schedule last week and could be ready for
deployment to the Gulf in January. The accelerated
schedule means the US could have as many as five carrier
groups available for an attack on Iraq early in the
year.
Meanwhile, US army engineering units that
might be sent to Iraq are receiving portable fold-out
bridges, according to the Los Angeles Times. Such
equipment indicates that, unlike Desert Storm in 1991,
US forces may be preparing for a mass ground invasion of
Iraq, which would require crossing the Euphrates River,
which traverses the country.
Three US Navy cargo
ships - USNS Bellatrix, USNS Bob Hope and USNS Fisher -
have also been sent to US ports to take on heavy combat
equipment, machinery and vehicles that may include
possibly tanks and helicopters.
Plans have also
been activated to call up retired merchant marine
sailors to fill gaps in what appears to be a huge
logistical transport operation to the Middle East by the
US military that would involve around 50 chartered
freighters.
According to Arkin, prior to
September 11, 2001, OPLAN 1003-98, Central Command's
blueprint for war with Iraq, calculated that 10
airfields and six seaports would be needed to sustain
air, ground and naval forces. As the plan has evolved,
force levels have grown and the requirement for
airfields and seaports has risen to 18 and 13
respectively. The plan calls for more than 60,000 short
tons in supplies a day, the equivalent of some 3,500
tractor-trailers driving the distance from Tampa,
Florida, to Savannah, Georgia, every day - or 5,000
flights by C-130 Hercules cargo planes.
To help
facilitate movement of all that, Kuwait has given
blanket permission for the use of its airfields, ports
and warehouses. US forces also have well-tended and
continually expanded bases in Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, and
Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Beyond the
Middle East, US bases in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and other parts of Central Asia add to the
capabilities against Iraq. The advanced state of the US
deployment leaves only a few last-minute touches before
US attacks could begin. These include Stealth bombers
taking off from their US bases, the rapid deployment of
helicopter-borne soldiers, and the call-up of thousands
of National Guard and reserve forces to cover for the
departed troops.
On November 8, the Pentagon
called for Army Reserve and National Guard commissioned
and warrant officers to step forward for active duty. It
wants at least 100,000 reservists available. Sources say
not all the troops activated will be sent to Iraq, since
thousands would be needed during a war to defend US
installations abroad and potential terrorist targets in
America.
In total, the Pentagon plans to
eventually mobilize more than 250,000 reservists. The US
has 870,000 military reservists who serve one weekend a
month at bases near their homes, and two weeks a year on
other assignments. It would take three weeks to a month
to properly train and deploy more than 100,000 soldiers
to various locations, Pentagon officials say.
Meanwhile US and UK forces continue to attack
Iraq from the air. On November 7, they bombed two Iraqi
air defense and command facilities near Al Kut, about 95
miles southeast of Baghdad. The jets fired
precision-guided weapons at an air defense operations
facility and integrated operations center.
In
the UK, the press is reporting that a 15,000-strong
fighting force will be mobilized in preparation for an
invasion of Iraq. Military reservists were given formal
notice to stand by for deployment to the Middle East.
Overall, the main British force would be its First
Armored Division. The British force will be led by the
7th Armoured Brigade - "Desert Rats" - and is expected
to include at least 200 tanks. The main base is expected
to be Kuwait. Along with its naval and air force
personnel its total deployed force would be about
30,000.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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