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THE ROVING EYE
Brave new
(Middle Eastern)
world
Part 1: The Saudi
equation
By Pepe Escobar
DUBAI
- There are few more privileged places to gauge popular
opinion on the American jihad against Iraq than this
gargantuan emporium - one of the world's definitive
crossroads. Lebanese still dream of their golden days,
but after the devastating Lebanese civil war, it was
Dubai that eventually prevailed as the late 20th
century, and now 21st century, high-tech equivalent of
Venice in the 15th, or Amsterdam in the 17th.
Fly and buy. Anything. Universal commerce. A WTO
dream come true. This is a vortex that feeds a much
larger region than the whole Middle East - from the
former Soviet Empire to the Maghreb and the whole Indian
subcontinent, and at the same time provides the oil-rich
of the Arab peninsula all the luxury items they crave.
Cohiba cigars, Bentley convertibles, Chanel parfum, Sony
Vaio computers, Mediterranean fusion cuisine: from the
archaic to the hyper-post-modern, Dubai has it all. And
if you are an Indian or Pakistani with info-tech savvy,
you can make a killing.
Dubai is all about
ultra-high-tech urban design superimposed over a
timeless world of bedouins and pearl catchers. The
glorious ancient cities of Palmyra (now in Syria) and
Petra (now in Jordan) were not much different. They
turbocharged into history after a few years of
commercial prosperity. They copied the urban tissue of
Rome and Athens, they copied their rules of urban
design, they increased their populations with a majority
of go-betweens and slaves with no civil rights
whatsoever, and they were prosperous for centuries.
The modern slaves in Dubai are Pakistani
construction workers. Karachi is only two hours away by
plane - and for the homesick, a mini-Karachi is cloned
in the Deira district of Dubai anyway. They work day and
night under the floodlights. They have no right to
strike and no social protection. They make around US$300
a month. Half is sent back to Pakistan. They survive on
the other half, paying the rent and living on a strict
diet of rice, cooking oil, tea and sugar. In
overpopulated Pakistan they would be jobless, or mere
madrassa fodder recruited by smart ulemas.
In this Las Vegas with Arab subtitles but no
topless bars, everywhere there's an array of clocks
showing local time next to the time in New York, London,
Moscow, Baku, Mecca, Teheran, Tashkent, Bangkok, Hong
Kong and beyond. Discos ooze with Uzbek, Caucasian,
Filipino or Bengali hostesses. Romanians trying a few
words of Spanish man the reception desks of five-star
hotels. Arabs from all over the peninsula sit in
California-style cafes smoking cigarettes, drinking
whisky in their dishdash - the long traditional white
robe. According to the way they wear their turban or
keffiah, it's possible to determine whether they are
from Saudi, Oman, the Emirates, Bharain or Qatar.
The commercial flux through the Persian Gulf is
non-stop, still operated by the famous dhows of the
Pirates Coast - as the British called the region to
better justify its conquest, according to a historical
book published by the emir of Sharjah. Today the dhows
are manned by Iranian and Pakistani crews. Huge boxes
are filled with second-rate merchandise baking in the
sun traverse the Gulf - old air-conditioners, old vaccum
cleaners, beat-up cars; everything the new rich from
Arabia get rid of is immediately recycled to the poorer
societies on the other side of the warm waters.
Sometimes the boats are attacked by Baluchi or Persian
pirates. But the real action is really at Dubai airport
- where an endless stream of Russian, Ukrainian,
Bulgarian, Algerian, Indian and Pakistani planes, like
wild electrons in rotation, transport merchandise at
unbeatable prices. The Taliban were hip: all their
customized, machine-gun-friendly Toyota Hi-Lux had a
blue or white Emirates license plate.
The Burj
Al Arab - designed to resemble the extremely graceful
sails of an Arabian dhow - is arguably the only
seven-star hotel in the world. In this mega-luxurious
vertical boat made of steel and glass it's possible to
find the creme de la creme of the Arab world. They come
from all over the Emirates - and beyond. They are
successful businessmen. They enjoy very good ties with
Saudi Arabia. They've been many times to the West. They
speak at least one Western language. They are not
exactly practising Wahhabis. But they are definitely not
anti-American. They love gold Rolex watches and they
love smoking Cohibas. Their wives clicking their sexy
high-heeled Gucci sandals may spend fortunes on golden
bracelets and luxury Western goods at the City Center
megamall, but they are still covered head-to-toe by a
black chador. And they are not allowed to work.
After a sumptuous seafood dinner in one of the
Burj's sub-aquatic restaurants - under the curious gaze
of a baby shark named Wally - by dessert it's time to
talk seriously about Iraq and the Arab world. Our
interlocutors obviously do not want their names
disclosed - but they are willing to talk freely. As one
of them puts it in a juicy metaphor, for the Americans
"Iraq is like a ripe fruit just waiting to be plucked."
No matter the spin, every grain of sand in not
only the Arabian desert but the whole planet now knows
"regime change" in Baghdad is all about oil. "And this
is really why Saudis are opposed to an American
invasion. Saudi does not want to lose such a good
client. Don't forget that the Americans in Washington
who are urging an attack against Iraq are the same ones
who are delivering the most vicious attacks against
Saudi Arabia - its government, its culture. But this is
all a smokescreen. What the Americans really cannot
stand is that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran
are now much better. And they cannot stand Saudi
Arabia's interest in really solving the Palestinian
problem."
Jordan will not be a problem for
America: "The Americans know that most of the Jordanian
population supports the Palestinian intifada. And most
of the Jordanian population supports Iraq. The Americans
also know that Iraq is a big economic help to Jordan.
Jordan can be a barrier between Iraq and Palestine, but
Jordan can also be a communication link between Iraq and
Palestine. The Americans know that if things change in
Baghdad, Jordan will have to follow whatever the
Americans want to do with Palestine. The solution for
the Palestinian problem in the end will be an
American-Israeli solution. And Jordan will have to
accept it."
Asia Times Online readers may
remember how a few months ago the Bush administration
was tinkering with the idea of making some concessions
regarding Palestine - as long as Arab regimes would give
a green light for America to attack Iraq. But in the end
the dreadful escalation of violence between Israelis and
Palestinians and Ariel Sharon's wasteland "policies"
have in fact facilitated the conditions for an attack
against Iraq. Our interlocutors fall silent on the fact
that "the Arab street" - and their governments - were
absolutely ineffective to confront the Israeli
offensive.
Next on the menu is Iran: "The
Americans have waged their war against terror with some
help from Iran. But then they tried to exclude Iran and
they even named it as part of the Axis of Evil. They
don't want Iran to have a role in the Middle East."
Everybody agrees that an attack against Iraq would reach
the American goal of having Iran totally encircled - and
this is exactly what Teheran fears. The extremely
complex battle between conservatives and reformists has
reached a crucial stage in Iran. Washington hawks think
that under pressure the whole structure will collapse.
"So to get Iraq would be a first step for the Americans
to finish once and for all with the Islamic revolution
in Iran."
Our interlocutors also agree that
America will try its best to cut communication between
Iran and Syria - and then try to provoke a "regime
change" in Damascus as well. "The Americans don't like
relations between Iraq and Syria. Now they both work
more or less in tandem: Syria is able to breathe
economically because of Iraq, and Iraq has some sort of
political life thanks to Syria." Both regimes are led by
two incompatible branches of the Baath Party. "If the
Americans try to change things in Syria, Lebanon would
be in trouble. It would not be an asset to Syria
anymore, but a liability. And the Americans could easily
manipulate the deep Lebanese resentment in certain
quarters against Syria."
Our interlocutors
worryingly agree that this Brave New Middle East will
breed an isolated Egypt - and would give Israel a free
hand to do anything it wants. The Americans may tolerate
some chaos in the periphery of Iraq. "But what they
really want is to control the central government in
Baghdad, and control all its decisions regarding oil."
Although America will remain in Central Asia - implanted
in a cluster of military bases - our interlocutors don't
believe the Americans will be able to control
Afghanistan. "Nobody can control Afghanistan. They
always expel any of their invaders." But they all agree
America's ultimate aim is to get its hands on all
crucial oil reserves in both the Middle East and Central
Asia.
The main piece of the puzzle is
undoubtedly Saudi Arabia. It´s fascinating to hear our
interlocutors talk about the birth of what we know today
as Saudi Arabia. The crucial year was 1774. That is when
a warlord and a religious reformer became allies in the
Arabian peninsula. The warrior was Muhamad bin Saud -
the founder of the still-ruling Saud dynasty. The imam
itching to restore the purity of Islam was Muhamad bin
Abdulwahab - the founder of Wahhabism.
Wahhabism
is essentially a warrior-like, strict and literal
reading of the Holy Koran. The soldier and the servant
of Allah both desperately needed each other to reinforce
and extend their own power. The whole
political-religious history of Saudi Arabia revolves
around this meeting of the minds.
For more than
two centuries, this warrior version of Islam - which
openly preached hate of Christians and Jews and
comdemned Muslims who were not as strict - flourished
only inside Saudi Arabia's walls. You could wage jihad,
but only with government authorization. So Saudi Arabia
was "respectable" in the eyes of the world. The West did
a lot of business with it: large industrial contracts,
hugely lucrative weapons sales. The West's bogeyman at
the time was Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. Americans
feared that the Iranian Shi'ite Revolution could be
exported. Wahhabism was a revolution as well - but only
for internal Arab consumption.
One day this cozy
arrangement exploded with a big bang. The Soviets
invaded Afghanistan and America re-invented jihad - to
present the Soviets with their own Vietnam. The most
radical Wahhabis ran wild. After the victory against the
mighty Red Army, many Wahhabis thought they could win
against the US as well. But then came the Gulf War. The
Saud dynasty allowed American troops - or "infidel
armies" - onto Saudi soil. Wahhabi doctors of law were
in panic. For the ulemas, faithful to the throne, this
decision was absolutely impossible to justify. Others
decided to totally comdemn it - like one Osama bin
Laden.
In 1998 Osama bin Laden issued his now
famous fatwa against Christians and Jews. Osama thought
that if the US could fall, states that only held on
because they were American client states would fall as
well. Foremost among theses states, according to Osama,
were Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Our interlocutors
suggest it is crucial to examine what Sheikh Yusuf
al-Qardhawi thinks about all this. The sheikh is the
host of a hugely popular TV program, "Al Sharia wa-l
Hayat" ("Islamic Law and Life"). This program -
broadcast by the Qatar-based Al-Jazeera cable network -
is the ne plus ultra of Sunni Islam in Arabic language
in the whole world. The sheikh is a former member of the
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. He was imprisoned by Nasser
in Egypt, fled to Qatar and got Qatari nationality - an
extremley rare distinction. He has been a spiritual
guide to everybody - from Egyptian Islamist students
under Anwar Sadat's regime to young militants in Western
Europe. He is a member of the Sharia board of the most
important Islamic commercial banks (the Sharia board is
their council of religious surveillance, charged to
verify that financial operations are in accordance with
the sacred texts. The intellectual pedigree of the
ulemas on the board is essential to attract important
clients). And to top it all the sheikh is of course a
huge TV personality - a Super-Preacher in a sacred
talk-show. He is a cold-booded ulema - and has a precise
answer for absolutely anything.
The system is
fascinatingly simple. People ask the sheikh's TV program
and his Internet site questions about a given individual
or social practice, and "Islam answers" - like in
ancient times when a pilgrim would consult a doctor of
the law in his mosque. The ulema then issues a fatwa - a
juridical advice based on the sacred texts. These
juridical-religious consultations can be about anything:
contracts, labor relations, war matters, leisure
matters, specific rites. The sheikh may ruffle a lot of
feathers, like once when he declared - live, on
Al-Jazeera - that cunnilingus and fellatio were admitted
by Islam.
It's crucial to learn what this
supreme Islamic eminence thinks of Osama bin Laden. The
sheikh thinks Osama is nothing but a wa'ez - a
sermonizer, the lowest rank in the hierachy of
preachers. Osama is not a doctor of the law, so he is
not authorized to issue any fatwa. He then made a
fundamental mistake by launching a jihad against the
West. For the sheikh, this is meaningless in the age of
Internet and satellite TV. The sheikh says that the
expansion of Islam can and should proceed without
violence.
But the sheikh at the same time is an
ardent believer in the concept of "defensive jihad".
Mullah Omar was right in Afghanistan to call for a jihad
against American bombing. But the Taliban could never
have called a jihad to defend themselves against their
fellow Muslims fighting for the Northern Alliance. The
sheikh points to Kashmir (Muslims against Indians),
Chechnya (Muslims against Russians) and Palestine
(Muslims against Israelis) as prime examples of
defensive jihad.
The massacre of innocent
civilians on September 11 is radically condemned. But
Hamas-sponsored suicide bombings in Palestine are
legitimate. Bombs in urban areas in Israel are
legitimate. The sheikh says Israel is a militarized
society; as there are no innocent civilians, everybody
is a legitimate target of the jihad.
Most
crucially, the sheikh thinks that Islam has been
devastated by two big blows. First when Saddam Hussein
invaded Kuwait in 1990, and then on September 11. These
big blows deeply divided the umma - the community
of the faithful - and have reinforced the power of the
enemies of Islam.
The sheikh would say there is
a direct link between the Wahhabi doctrine and Osama bin
Laden. But it gets much more complicated than that. Our
interlocutors stress that practically all the leaders of
most hardcore Islamist movements have three things in
common: they studied in Saudi Arabian universities; they
received a lot of Saudi financial support, public or
private; and they became military leaders by training in
Afghanistan. And now the New Jihadi - brought about by
al-Qaeda - is a new hybrid, a lethal cocktail: he has
had first-hand experience of the West, and he has been
radically re-Islamicized. Our interlocutors agree: there
is now a profound crisis in Saudi Arabia between
religious power and the power of the Saud dynasty.
From Dubai's sweaty mini-Karachi souk to
its air-conditioned American-style megamalls, the Iraq
issue is the chronicle of a war foretold. The consensus
is inevitable: America wants to scrap Saudi Arabian oil
reserves and get its hands on Iraqi's oil reserves.
"There used to be a marriage of money and convenience
between the US and Saudi Arabia. Now they are heading
for divorce." Without its 8 million barrels of oil a
day, Saudi Arabia long ago would have been branded by
America as a "rogue state", subjected to heavy
sanctions, international isolation, bombing, or, who
knows, even "regime change". There are absolutely no
common values between freewheeling America and the land
of a universal, uninterrupted jihad. But our
interlocutors stress that after the inevitable replay of
Desert Storm, there may be even more turbulence.
Faithful to its universal missionary tradition, America
- sitting on Iraqi oil - will certainly try to "reform"
Saudi Arabia. Iraq may turn out to be just a means to a
- higher? - end.
Tomorrow: Part 2: The
Iranian equation
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