BEIJING - Kim Jong-il is dead. Now, what's going to happen in North Korea?
That's the question the world is thinking aloud, trying to peep into North
Korea. But they are wrong. They should look at South Korea - what happens next
will be pretty much determined by the South Korean government's strategy and
its reactions.
With Kim Jong-il no longer around - his death at the age of 69 was officially
announced in Pyongyang on Monday morning - many experts will look at China,
which has been touted as wielding more influence on the reclusive nation than
any other country in the world.
But this time, it's South Korea that holds the key in managing the course of
the situation in North Korea. South Korean presidential
advisers might see this as an "opportunity". Depending on how they interpret
that opportunity, the trajectory of the Korean Peninsula will be dramatically
different.
Any thought of "regime change" on the part of President Lee Myung-bak's
security advisers will hold more risks to the peninsula than opportunities to
goad the country into a soft landing.
Kim Jong-il actually died on Saturday morning. During the 48 hours until North
Korean state TV's official announcement, what North Korea might have done
remains a key to understanding the Hermit Kingdom's internal situation.
Unfortunately, very few people know about it. It's only an educated guess that
Pyongyang firstly broke the news to Beijing and the two have likely to come up
with a strategy to "manage" the situation. By Monday afternoon, Beijing had
made no official comment.
Yet the fact that Pyongyang decided to go on TV and publicly announce the most
earth-shattering news (since Kim Il-sung's death in 1994) indicates that
Pyongyang doesn't want any trouble. This signal should be carefully grasped by
Seoul.
Pyongyang's elites will closely monitor South Korea's reactions.
Miscommunication could happen. It's especially the case under Lee's helm. For
the past four years, the rival duo's relationship has been the worst in
decades. And the two reportedly did not have a reliable top-level communication
channel.
Today is South Korean media's heyday. But being cool and staying calm and
self-restrained is required of them more than any other time. South Korean
media outlets are famous for their robust nature, but any hyping of South
Korean military's alertness and dwelling on sensationalism could clearly do a
disservice at this critical juncture.
It's especially the case since they produce the majority of reporting on North
Korea and the world gets the temperature of the degree of the Korean
Peninsula's volatile nature through them.
There are already cases of people canceling air flights bound to South Korea,
fearing an outbreak of war. The temptation is that South Korean media outlets
could capitalize on such news, believing that they did it in the past but
nothing happened.
But North Korea is in unprecedented uncertainty now, with Kim Jong-il's young
son and anointed successor, Jong-eun, still in his 20s; he will have to juggle
the complicated power dynamics among different factions.
South Korean media don't have to give certain factions a rationale to believe
that Seoul is planning a war or an attempt for regime change in North Korea,
capitalizing on the current situation.
Monday is President Lee's birthday. Some South Korean pundits are already
saying that he is the luckiest president in South Korea. Sure, Lee got the
biggest birthday present ever. Clearly, this is his opportunity in many
different senses. His strategists, including those from the military, will
suggest how he cut the birthday cake. And it's Lee alive, not Kim dead, who
holds the knife.
Sunny Lee (sleethenational@gmail.com) is a Seoul-born columnist
and journalist; he has degrees from the US and China.
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