Lee rapidly falls out of favor
By Andray Abrahamian
The sinking of the corvette Cheonan, a conservative president and
elections have combined to create the most caustic online debate in South
Korea's history.
Immediately ahead of South Korea's June 2 regional elections, the shattered
hull of the Cheonan divided the nation.
This was a far cry from a few months earlier when the corvette, on duty near
the Koreas' maritime border, was apparently hit by a North Korean torpedo,
claiming 46 lives. Public opinion wasn't
split then as polls showed that more than 70% of the public supported President
Lee Myung-bak's North Korea policy.
Lee's canny handling of the situation looked set to translate into a broad
victory for his conservative Grand National Party (GNP), with large leads in
key elections. Instead, they lost several races and the Seoul mayoral race was
decided by a whisker. So what happened?
The large lead in the polls, combined with gorgeous weather and a day off from
work, may have lulled the conservative base that the Cheonan incident
had seemed to revitalize into being less committed on the day. Some editorials
suggested that perhaps a rare day out with the family took precedence over
civic duty. Others speculated that the polls were poorly conducted or not
answered honestly. Others speculated that "hidden votes", apparently
uncountable by polls, had somehow surfaced without warning.
But one thing is clear: not for the first time, there was an online war between
Lee and left-wing netizens. Lee lost again.
The run-up
Before the sinking of the Cheonan on March 26, the opposition labeled
the election as a "referendum on Lee's presidency so far". With a mishandling
of public opinion regarding US beef imports and mad cow disease, pressure on
Internet and press freedoms, as well as an unpopular plan for a grand canal
down the length of the country, this seemed like a good line on which to base
opposition candidates' talking points.
The Cheonan, however, reshaped the election. Lee campaigned for
president partly on a platform of reversing the "Sunshine" policy of the two
previous presidents. Under this policy, reconciliation with the North was the
main theme. South Korean investment and aid exploded in the 2000s, but with no
resolution to North Korea's nuclear issue, most voters supported Lee's claims
that the South had given too much, with nothing in return. He promised to take
a tougher line and link aid and trade with results on other issues.
Now, with his other faults shifted to the background, Lee had a chance to focus
on the issue that garnered him so much support in the 2007 election. Would the
public support his hard line in a time of crisis?
All the polls said they did. Lee, in terms of the domestic polity, handled the
crisis brilliantly. In the days immediately following the sinking of the Cheonan,
Internet chat rooms, coffee shops and news pages exploded with all manner of
debate, theories and criticisms. Everything was on the table, from US friendly
fire to hitting a rock to encountering an old mine.
The Lee administration was being reserved with information, cagey even, and
officials contradicted one another. This caused a degree of suspicion and
mistrust among the public, reflected in an eight-point dip in the polls for
Lee.
In early April, Lee began communicating more clearly. He got his defense
minister on the same page (he had been claiming North Korea almost right away)
expressing that it was too early to draw any kind of conclusions. The
investigation team assembled was international and included non-military
personnel. The government, little by little, began publicizing the suspicion
that the sinking was North Korea's doing. They leaked information as the
investigation went along, allowing public opinion to gradually adjust to the
conclusion, rather than fueling anger with harsh rhetoric early on.
Meanwhile, as the investigation continued, some candidates questioned in
advance what the findings would be. This came to an abrupt end when results of
the investigation were released on May 20. The displayed propeller and shaft of
a torpedo, with Korean writing on it, was evidence too strong to deny outright.
Most of the opposition candidates, unable to criticize the evidence without
implicitly accusing the Lee administration of some sort of fraud, returned to
other election issues. (Though they did vocally complain about the timing of
the report - less than two weeks before the election - and Lee's supposed
inability to guard the country.) The poll numbers for the Grand National Party
(GNP) incumbent for mayor of Seoul, Oh Se Hoon, continued to rise, becoming an
18-point lead. The GNP also had large leads in all the contestable races.
In the following days, Lee's strong response to the findings was made clear: a
cessation of all trade except the Kaesong Industrial Complex, no North Korean
vessels allowed in South Korea's waters, a more aggressive military posture
combined with a diplomatic push for more sanctions.
Polls said 71% of people trusted the results and only 26% thought the incident
was being misused for political gain. The GNP was aware of the danger of this,
too, as an internally circulated document warned of overusing the issue. Lee's
executive handling of the incident was well supported. The GNP's strategic use
of the timing to rally conservative voters without overdoing it was going well.
Then on election day, the opposition won 10 out of 16 races. The GNP won Seoul
by less than 1%.
Lee vs the Internet, again
With mainstream media unable to credibly criticize the evidence, the real
debate retreated to the Internet, where doubts about the investigation
blossomed. Blogs and message boards, the bane of Lee's presidency since the
2008 mad cow protests, blew up with self-reinforcing memes: "Lee is using the Cheonan
to push the North Korea agenda he always wanted," "the Americans and Lee are
covering up a friendly fire incident", "the writing on the torpedo is too new
and clean to have been underwater for almost two months". Someone even released
an iPhone application that superimposes the "1?" (number 1) on photos: "turn
anything you take a picture of into North Korean-made!" reads the product
description.
Somewhere among the doubts, rumors and mistruths a chord was struck with
independent and left-leaning voters - a chord that didn't show up in the polls.
Something about Lee's handling of the incident seemed dishonest. Perhaps his
counter-measures went too far. Perhaps the evidence was a little too good.
Perhaps Lee's chilling of relations contributed to the attack.
As the intensity of the Internet buzz continued unabated, at the last minute,
people who leaned towards trusting the government turned around and voted for
the opposition. Young people, who the left traditionally needs to motivate if
they hope to win, were probably most susceptible to the online rumor-mill and
seemed to have turned out.
For all of Lee's deft handling of the situation to date, the government's
biggest mistake may have been to announce that it was going to investigate
Internet users spreading false information through Internet bulletin boards and
blogs. The administration appeared to be overreacting and the fear was that
legitimate dissent would be swept up in the dragnet that was trawling for
libelous writers.
During the massive US beef mad cow protests of spring 2008, which were
initially organized in a leaderless, grassroots fashion online, Lee struggled
to appease public opinion. Later that year the government instituted the "real
name registration system", wherein netizens must register using their national
ID on websites with more than 100,000 users. This then aided in the 2009 arrest
and failed prosecution of a blogger called Minerva, who has an uncanny knack
for predicting economic events and was critical of the government.
Two days before the election, the Defense Ministry announced that it would
invite 70 influential bloggers to view the wreck of the Cheonan in order
to combat online rumor-mongering. This attempt to shift the tone of the online
debate came too late, however.
The election is now past and the results will make the GNP wish it had kept the
investigation quietly going into mid-June. Far from the reaffirmation Lee
sought on his North Korea policy, left-wing netizens found a way to get voters
to rebuke him.
Lee has always had a combative relationship with online critics. The Cheonan
and regional elections were the latest defeat in that battle.
Andray Abrahamian is a doctoral candidate at the University of Ulsan,
South Korea.
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