Clouds over South Korea's president-to-be
By Donald Kirk
SEOUL - South Korea's fifth presidential campaign since adoption of the
"democracy constitution" two decades ago is roaring to a controversial climax
in which, for the first time, the outcome appears pre-ordained but the
aftermath extremely cloudy.
If public opinion polls are at all credible, the brilliant former businessman
Lee Myung-bak (M B Lee)is a shoo-in when voters go to the polls next Wednesday
to get rid of ten years of liberal, if not leftist, leadership during which the
country recovered from the
1997 financial crisis and began the difficult process of reconciliation with
North Korea.
Seemingly incontrovertible proof of the public's disillusionment with that kind
of leadership is that the far-and-away front-runner, M B Lee, is a conservative
whose greatest previous success was his dizzying ascent to the top of the
country's greatest builder, Hyundai Engineering and Construction Company.
The fact that Hyundai Construction almost went belly-up in the aftermath of an
economic crisis ten years ago in which the government had to ask the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) to put together a US$58-billion bailout
package to keep the economy from collapsing under the weight of the profligate
spending habits of the conglomerates or chaebol that dominate the
economy is largely forgotten.
All that most people seem to remember is the national humiliation of having to
agree to restraints on the chaebol. The sequence of talks and deals with
the IMF came to be known as "the IMF crisis", a put-down that reflected Korea
resentment of IMF intrusion into the heart of Korean business.
While Hyundai Construction remains in the hands of the bankers that took it
over, 65-year-old M B Lee, who skyrocketed to the chairmanship of the the
flagship of the mighty Hyundai empire at the age of 35, talks of the need to
loosen rules and regulations that he believes are responsible for plunging the
country to the brink of economic hardship, if not duress.
The economy expanding to the tune of annual growth increases between 4% and 5%,
but M B Lee believes under his leadership growth will increase to 7% and annual
income per capita will double from the present level of nearly $20,000 to
$40,000. He can play on one disturbing fact that no one can deny - unemployment
among recent college graduates hovers at about 20%, giving the impression of
economic stagnation easily blamed on the egalitarian policies of President Roh
Moo-hyun.
It's largely because of economic malaise, real or imagined, that the popularity
polls show the number of voters in favor of M B Lee at 41.7%, according to the
government-owned Korea Broadcasting System (KBS). JoongAng Ilbo, Korea's second
biggest-selling newspaper, puts his popularity at 44.7%, and Chosun Ilbo, a
conservative voice with the largest daily circulation estimates it at 45.4%.
Some skeptics question who's conducting the polls, whether they are accurate,
and if all those in favor of M B Lee will bother to vote. His lead, however, is
a terrible embarrassment to his two biggest challengers, the leftist Chung
Dong-young, the pro-government candidate and former unification minister, the
other the arch-conservative Lee Hoi-chang (H C Lee), who ran as an independent
after losing the last two presidential elections.
M B Lee, carrying the banner of the Grand National Party that was swept out of
power when H C Lee lost by an eyelash to Kim Dae-jung ten years ago, appears to
have enough support to beat both of them put together. The KBS poll showed H C
Lee with 16.4% and Chung with 15.4%, while both the JoongAng and Chosun polls
showed Chung slightly ahead of Lee.
The numbers, though, obscure only superficially the widespread sense that M B
Lee has a lot to hide. His bitterest foes promise to keep up a drumbeat of
criticism against him, hoping to entrap him either through a special
investigation by the courts or to edge out the Grand National Party in voting
for a new National Assembly next April.
But prosecutors seem to have secured M B Lee's victory by exonerating him of
wrongdoing in a scandal in which a Korean-American businessman allegedly
embezzled tens of millions of dollars from an investment fund named BBK. The
prosecutors accepted M B Lee's claim that documents produced by Lee's former
partner were forgeries.
The case, however, refuses to die. Members of Chung's United New Democratic
Party are attempting to "impeach" the prosecutors and are pressing for passage
of a law setting up a special investigation of M B Lee's finances. For the past
few days, the media in South Korea here have been full of reports and
statements by former journalists swearing that Lee told them in interviews
seven years ago that he was the BBK's owner. Hundreds of thousands of Koreans
have been gazing at the whole story on the Internet, mesmerized by the sense
that M B Lee knows and did a lot more than he's saying.
"Korea's BBK prosecution has raped the Korean people," a retired ambassador,
Lee Chang-choon, told this writer in a lengthy interview. "This is national
sleaze of lies and more lies. This country faces a deep conflagration."
Lee Chang-choon, a conservative, said that he has decided to support Chung
Young-dong after seeing him at his residence and trying to persuade him to
retreat from his ardent pursuit of reconciliation with North Korea. Chung, as
unification minister, led the charge for providing aid to North Korea, forming
cultural and economic contacts, while urging the United States to give up the
"hardline" outlook that dominated the early years of the presidency of George W
Bush.
Radicals and leftists have been staging candlelight demonstrations nightly in
central Seoul, shouting out condemnation of M B Lee, and they promise to step
up their campaign after his election - assuming, that is, that Chung fails to
accomplish what would indeed be a miraculous 11th-hour comeback. The tough
views of the activists undoubtedly set the stage for what may be some strong
confrontations with the next government.
For all their idealism, though, Chung's backers are disillusioned by the
lukewarm encouragement offered by the two figures whom they would have expected
to be completely on their side.
Roh Moo-hyun has said he opposes the bid to "impeach" the prosecutors and has
done little beyond offering perfunctory support for Chung, with whom he has not
been on good terms since Chung criticized his leadership after stepping down as
unification minister.
Kim Dae-jung's outlook is even more puzzling than that of Roh. "D J," as he is
widely known, warned early on that M B Lee's victory could lead to violent
clashes, maybe even a second Korean war, but he has muted such comments of
late.
The biggest puzzle of all, though, is the North Korean attitude. The Pyongyang
propaganda machine last year was full of vitriolic rhetoric denouncing M B Lee,
but lately the attacks have focused on H C Lee, who wants to turn the clock
back on most of the deals reached in the two inter-Korean summits, that of June
2000, when D J flew to Pyongyang to meet Kim Jong-il, and again in October of
this year when Roh Moo-hyun took his own turn in Pyongyang.
M B Lee has promised to "review" North Korean policy, and he has criticized the
government for giving away a great deal for very little in return, but he's not
expected to go back on ongoing agreements for building up the Kaesong economic
zone, opening rail services from South Korea, through North Korea, in time for
the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics and studying possibilities for building new
ports on North Korea's east and west coasts.
"North Korea has shifted its statements from criticizing the Grand National
Party to criticizing H C Lee," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of
inter-Korean relations studies at the Sejong Institute and an adviser to the
Unification Ministry. "That leads me to believe North Korea realizes Lee
Myung-bak is more moderate and will still be willing to talk."
Cheong predicts that after a year or two of M B Lee's presidency, "South Korea
will be able to stabilize its relationship with North Korea." The basis for
that belief, he said, is that M B Lee is "very market-oriented" and will want
above all to build up economic ties with North Korea rather than dwell on such
unpleasant topics as Kim Jong-il's dictatorship and human rights record.
M B Lee may, however, have more difficulty persuading South Korean activists -
and a lot of other people one encounters in the country - that he is the man
for the job, given the perception of his shady deals.
This suggests the real campaign for M B Lee's political survival and endurance
will begin after the final votes are counted.
Journalist Donald Kirk has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of
forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years.
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