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Six-party talks will test regional
security
By James Goodby and
Donald Gross
(Used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS)
North Korea is a weak and isolated
country, but it recently rebuffed demands by the
United States, Russia, Japan, China and South
Korea to return to the six-party talks on
eliminating its nuclear-weapons program. North
Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, says Pyongyang might
participate in these negotiations "when conditions
are suitable".
What's going on? It is one
thing for North Korea to supply nuclear weapons to
rogue states or terrorist groups; it's another for
it to say "no" to the most powerful nations on
Earth. The time has come for these five countries
to act together to contain the immediate North
Korean threat and address other threats that are
emerging in Northeast Asia.
The six-party
talks are a test of whether these countries can
collectively deal with regional security concerns.
The answer to that question is even more
significant for the future of peace and security
in Northeast Asia than whether Kim Jong-il sends a
delegation to Beijing.
Each day it becomes
clearer that dangerous balance-of-power politics
have begun taking hold in Northeast Asia to offset
the rising power of China. Japan has been moving
simultaneously to improve diplomatic relations
with Russia and to align itself more strongly
against China on the incendiary Taiwan issue.
Some nationalists in South Korea have
called for their country to move closer to
Beijing, allowing China to reassume its historical
"big brother" role to Korea. They foresee conflict
with Korea's traditional enemy, Japan, and an end
to the US-South Korea alliance.
On the other side of the ledger, the US
increasingly is being excluded from broader
movements toward multilateral cooperation, especially
in the economic sphere. Washington has not
been invited to the first East Asia Summit, scheduled
to take place in Malaysia next December, when
participants will consider forming an East Asian
economic community. Already, in the so-called
"ASEAN + 3" process, Japan, South Korea, and China
regularly join with Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) countries to address regional
economic and diplomatic concerns.
To
prevent competing alignments from forming and to
ensure its role in the region's expanding
multilateral diplomacy, Washington should move
swiftly to convert the six-party talks into a
broader regional security mechanism focused on
stabilizing relations among the five, or
preferably six nations, if North Korea chooses to
end its isolation. This organization should be
supported by a small secretariat. It should
periodically hold meetings of cabinet-level
officers to coordinate policies.
The
agenda for the broader multilateral security
discussion should be organized around three areas:
security, economics, and humanitarian issues. In
the security basket, the parties should develop
and implement new transparency and
confidence-building measures. Nuclear issues
should be included, including plans for
modernization and missile defenses.
Talks
on North Korea's nuclear programs should continue
in this forum if Pyongyang agrees to resume the
suspended discussions. If it does, the talks
should also include discussions on a peace
agreement for the Korean Peninsula to replace the
1953 armistice, recognizing that these talks would
be limited to the parties directly involved in the
Korean War.
In the economic basket, the
parties should promote regional development. In
particular, they should discuss plans for
constructing natural gas pipelines to meet
pressing future energy needs and consider forming
an energy cooperation network.
In the
humanitarian basket, the parties could discuss
alleviation of problems arising from poverty and
lack of adequate medical care, as well as
assistance to refugees. They should also address
ways to end the pervasive trafficking in women and
children. Family reunification should be high on
the agenda, if North Korea participates.
Steps toward a multilateral security
mechanism built on the foundation of the six-party
talks would strengthen prospects for successfully
managing the North Korea nuclear issue. For this
reason - and to prevent North Korea from thwarting
the promise of the six-party-talks - the US should
urge Japan, China, Russia and South Korea to
establish a stronger and more extensive
multilateral security structure, even if North
Korea at first refuses to take part. In so doing,
the US will best advance its own long-term
interests in Northeast Asia while also creating a
framework for resolving fundamental political and
security issues on the Korean Peninsula.
James E Goodby, a former US
ambassador, is a public policy scholar at the
Woodrow Wilson Center. Donald G Gross, a former
State Department official, is a consultant on
Asian affairs and an international lawyer in
Washington. They can be reached at goodby@starpower.net
or
DonGross617@hotmail.com.
This article was made available by Pacific Forum CSIS. |
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