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Kim rains on 'Sunshine
Policy'
By Jaewoo Choo
SEOUL - North Korea's announcement last
week that it possesses nuclear weapons has dealt a
devastating blow to South Korean President Roh
Moo-hyun's government. Ever since entering the
Blue House in 2003, Roh has vigorously pursued a
lenient, and to an extent benign, policy toward
the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il,
even to the detriment of his own nation's
half-century-old alliance with the United States.
The South Korean president has on numerous
occasions emphasized that his North Korea policy
remains in line with that of his predecessor, Kim
Dae-jung, known as the "Sunshine Policy" of
openness and engagement with the North.
Will this policy shine as brightly for Roh
as it as it did for Kim Dae-jung, crowning the
latter with the Nobel Peace Prize? Will the
continuation of the Sunshine Policy generate its
intended consequences, inducing the North to
emerge bereft of nuclear weapons, thus leading to
the reunification of the two Koreas? Under the
current circumstances, the prospects for sunshine
for Roh of for the intended results do not seem to
be bright at all. So what is causing Roh to pursue
such a policy?
'Independent and
autonomous'
In terms of strategy, rather
than relying on a unilateral approach in inducing
Pyongyang to change its position toward the South
by pouring in economic and humanitarian aid, Roh's
government claims to have adopted a pragmatic
approach. Many South Korean people, however, are
not too clear about what such an approach actually
means. However, based on its endeavors thus far,
we can make an educated guess that it means a
persistent development of a friendly relationship
with Pyongyang regardless of the nature of the
troubles inflicted by that regime.
The
consequences of Roh's pro-North Korea stance are
vividly reflected in the fragility of the current
US-South Korea alliance, and a rising lack of
confidence and trust in Seoul by Washington. In
addition, for the first time in more than a
decade, Roh's government succeeded in renouncing
North Korea as the "main enemy" in its recently
published Defense White Paper. Furthermore, Roh
and his aides are still working hard to forge an
opportunity for high-level talks and/or a summit
meeting with Pyongyang irrespective of what is
regarded by many in the region as a "crisis" due
to the North's unyielding nuclear ambitions and
despite its declaration last week that it does
indeed have nukes and is suspending participation
in disarmament talks.
All this has been
camouflaged by Roh's so-called "independent and
autonomous" foreign policy. From this perspective,
Roh's North Korea policy went far beyond the scope
and range of what the original Sunshine Policy had
intended. It shifted the fundamental orientation
of the Sunshine Policy, taking sides with the
North and China, while diverging from the United
States.
Roh's government has struggled to
remain consistent with its North-oriented policy.
Such efforts have sometimes invited great
controversy at home and abroad. En route to Chile
to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) meeting last November, for instance, Roh
delivered a controversial speech before a US
audience in Los Angeles. In his speech, he
explicitly stated his understanding that the North
was pursuing nuclear weapons and long-range
missiles for security reasons, in order to deter
threats from the outside. His statement was in
total congruence with Pyongyang's recent
justification and rationale - security from a
hostile United States - when it officially
announced last Thursday that it possesses nuclear
weapons. In his California speech Roh went
further, expressing his opposition to any kind of
sanctions against the North, implying his
opposition to taking the case to the United
Nations Security Council.
Whether his
efforts will deflect the US from hardline measures
(after official US statements about Pyongyang as
an "outpost of tyranny" and the need for regime
transformation) remains to be considered.
Despite Roh's recent emphasis on the
importance of South Korea's relationship with the
US in an attempt to mend the already fragile
alliance, his words do not match his deeds.
Although he reiterated the success of the
six-party talks as a prerequisite of the summit
meeting with Kim Jong-il, he is very much
preoccupied by the goal of such a summit.
Quest for the summit
In the
midst of the current "crisis", Roh's government is
searching for every possible way to have Kim
Jong-il accept the Russian invitation to attend
the 60th anniversary of the Allied victory in
World War II to be held in May in St Petersburg.
The occasion is widely perceived to provide a
natural opportunity for an inter-Korean summit.
The prospect for this is very dim, however,
because the North would not view the occasion with
the same respect as either the South or Russia.
The end of World War II is perceived by the North
as a victory for the imperialists, in which Korea
had no part. In other words, there is a lack of
justification for Kim Jong-il to attend such a
ceremony.
However, the efforts of Roh's
government do not stop there. Last month at the
World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, for
instance, the minister of unification in his
speech extended an invitation to Kim Jong-il to
attend the APEC leaders' meeting to be held in
November in Busan, South Korea. This month in
Shenyang, China, a couple of South Korean national
assemblymen in their roles as representatives of
the Korean Council for Reconciliation and
Cooperation, a non-governmental organization that
was founded in 1998 for improving implementation
of the Sunshine Policy, met the Northern
representative of the same organization to discuss
the possibility of co-hosting a celebration in
August of the 60th anniversary of Korea's
liberation. Although these national assemblymen
were from an opposition party, their intentions
and actions are provoking quite a debate in South
Korea because their party has yet to join the
organization officially, and they acted as
individual members. Details of the proposed August
event have not been revealed but there is
speculation it would include an official meeting
at the highest level, including the leaders of the
two Koreas.
In addition, Roh's government
has indicated continued support for the current
inter-Korean economic cooperation, despite the
North's rejection of the six-party talks for an
indefinite period. Seoul has continued to insist
that the current standoff will not affect the
economic issues, emphasizing the humanitarian
aspect of the South's economic assistance.
Furthermore, it pledged continuing operation of
South Korean companies in Gaeseong Industrial
Complex across the border in North Korea, as well
as more visits by South Korean tourists to Mount
Geumgang in the North. The government's rhetoric
is widely interpreted as indicating its wish to
avoid offending Pyongyang, thereby keeping alive
its hope to lay the ground for the summit meeting.
For Roh to realize his wish to meet with
Kim Jong-il, he needs to find some good reasons
and justifications for such a summit. Otherwise,
meeting with a man perceived by most of the world
as a tyrant - and one who has admitted possessing
nuclear weapons to boot - would only backfire and
undermine Roh's already low public support, which
currently stands in the low-20% range. Roh,
therefore, is becoming particularly edgy, as the
clock is ticking to his disadvantage - he is
already in his third year of a five-year
presidency. If he does not handle the situation
and his allies adroitly, his wish may never be
fulfilled. This is not 2000 - George W Bush is not
Bill Clinton and Roh Moo-hyun is simply not Kim
Dae-jung.
Jaewoo Choo, PhD, is
assistant professor in the School of International
Relations and Area Studies, Kyung Hee University,
South Korea.
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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