Hatoyama to Nanjing, Hu to Hiroshima?
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - With the world economy's center of gravity shifting from the West to
the East, led by China's rising economic and corresponding political power, the
year 2010 may witness a series of epoch-making events in Asia.
A grand rapprochement between Japan and China could be one such happening, and
the idea has been recently floated through the media by some anonymous
diplomatic sources in Tokyo and/or Beijing, attracting a lot of attention among
experts worldwide.
The French newspaper Le Figaro reported from Tokyo last Wednesday that the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had
delivered to the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) the script of a
spectacular reconciliation this year between the two countries. The report said
the CCP had proposed that Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama begin the
process by going to Nanjing, where a mass killing of Chinese civilians by the
Japanese Imperial Army took place in December 1937 and subsequent months.
This first visit to Nanjing by a Japanese prime minister since the war would
present to the Chinese people Tokyo's official apologies without ambiguity,
easing lingering anti-Japan sentiment among the Chinese public. In return, some
months later, on August 15, the anniversary of the Japanese surrender in 1945,
Chinese President Hu Jintao would go to Hiroshima, the first city to experience
atomic bombing, and declare the three non-nuclear principles: China will not
make a nuclear first strike, will not attack any non-nuclear country and will
not export nuclear arms. The French paper named as its source only "our
information".
Meanwhile, the Yomiuri, Japan's largest daily newspaper, also reported from
Beijing on Wednesday that China had unofficially sounded out Japanese
government sources on a visit by Hatoyama to Nanjing, likely around the time he
goes to the Shanghai Expo's Japan Day on June 12, with Hu visiting Hiroshima
around the time of the November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit
to be held in Japan. The Japanese paper said reciprocal visits would aim at
improving feelings between the two peoples. Still, unlike Le Figaro, the
Yomiuri mentioned nothing about apologies or nuke promises. It cited "several
Japanese and Chinese sources".
China's Foreign Ministry denied the Yomiuri report on Thursday, with a ministry
spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, saying the media rumors of a Nanjing trip were
"groundless". But she also said, in what sounded like a non-denial-denial, "It
is too early to confirm the details." On the same day, Japan's chief cabinet
secretary, Hirofumi Hirano, also denied the reports, saying "at this point, we
are not considering" a visit by Hatoyama to Nanjing.
"I have not heard of any such plan," a top Foreign Ministry official also told
Asia Times Online, speaking on condition of anonymity. "My guess is that some
persons involved might have presented their wish list to have better relations.
There is nothing concrete about it." This official's comment suggests that such
talks are still going on either at lower government-to-government levels or
through party-to-party channels.
The reports by Le Figaro and the Yomiuri, however, followed a similar report in
November by the Japanese business magazine, Weekly Toyo Keizai. It reported a
secret diplomatic schedule being prepared by relevant Chinese and Japanese
players. It predicted that the visit to Beijing one month later by Ichiro
Ozawa, secretary general of the DPJ, accompanying more than 600 people,
including 143 DPJ lawmakers from the upper and lower houses of the Diet
(parliament), would be the first of several Japan-China exchanges. The visit
was conducted as part of regular exchanges between the DPJ and the CCP, whose
general secretary is Hu.
The media reports have triggered strong reaction. After Le Figaro's report,
China's Global Times posted a questionnaire about this possible Japan-China
grand rapprochement on its Chinese-language website. More than 30,000 Internet
users have responded.
When asked whether the Japanese leader should apologize at the Memorial for
Compatriots Killed in the Nanjing Massacre by Japanese Forces of Aggression,
95.1% said "yes". Only 1% said "no". When asked whether the Japanese leader's
apology would lead to Japan-China reconciliation, 24.7% said "yes" and 29.5%
said "no".
Japanese leaders' visits to this memorial are nothing new. Hiromu Nonaka, then
acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, visited the victims'
memorial in Nanjing on May 9, 1998, laying flowers at the site and becoming the
first leader from his party to do so. In the same month, former Japanese prime
minister Tomiichi Murayama visited the site.
Even if speculation over Hatoyama's visit to Nanjing and Hu's visit to
Hiroshima turns out to be nothing, it is still intriguing, as it may indicate
that Japan's shift toward Asia, especially China, and away from the United
States, is taking shape.
China seems to have refrained from using the Japan historic card to control its
own people since 1996, when then-prime minister Shinzo Abe chose Beijing for
his first overseas visit out of a desire to strengthen ties with the leaders of
Japan's important neighbor. Historically, the CCP's one-party regime has been
legitimized, in part, by its struggle against the Japanese invader.
Why then does China want Hatoyama to visit Nanjing? There are conflicting views
among Japanese experts. Some say that in preparation for a succession of power
in 2012 and beyond, Beijing's secret battles are intensifying. A faction of
ex-president Jiang Zemin, who annoyed Japanese leaders by bringing up the
history issue during a banquet with the emperor, has been gaining ground
recently. Others believe Beijing wants to settle historic issues once and for
all, to enable the two nations to build a future-oriented relationship of
mutual trust, much like the Franco-German reconciliation that president Charles
de Gaulle of France and West German chancellor Konrad Adenauer started by
signing the Elysee Treaty in 1963, a foundation of Franco-German cooperation
that led to European integration.
Some US officials and experts, especially right-leaning military planners, may
be displeased to see Tokyo's approach to Beijing at a time when the relocation
issue of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa prefecture has been
deadlocked.
In a commentary titled "Japan's risky rapprochement with China" published on
December 21 by The Wall Street Journal, Kelly Currie, a non-resident fellow of
the Project 2049 Institute, a think-tank in Washington, wrote:
Prime
Minister Hatoyama will likely continue his promised efforts to "rebalance"
Japanese relations with the US and China, but now that he's actually
responsible for governing, Mr Hatoyama needs to ask himself: Which country
would ultimately keep the Japanese people's best interests at heart -
democratic America or authoritarian China? If the prime minister answers the
latter, then the Japanese public - and the Obama administration - really will
need to start worrying.
Well, the relationship between Japan
and China has been rapidly improving since Hatoyama's China-friendly
administration was inaugurated last September, as is the relationship between
Beijing and Taipei since the mainland-friendly administration of President Ma
Ying-jeou took office in Taiwan in May 2008. The US administration of Barack
Obama has followed suit.
Every country, driven by economic and political pragmatism, is rushing to cash
in on China's huge consumer market. Japan is no exception. As a result,
Japan-China-US trilateral relations are giving off a lot of heat in the
unsettled state of affairs of Northeast Asia.
Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based journalist. Besides Asia Times Online,
he writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. He can be contacted
at letters@kosuke.net.
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