Page 2 of 2 US frets over Tokyo drift
By Peter J Brown
Since August's election in Japan brought to an end nearly 50 years of
continuous rule by the LDP, Suzuki says "there are too many things going on,
and defense [policy] is one thing that they [the DPJ] do not have to bother
with too much because stability is so important".
However, when it comes to Japan's defense budget, the DPJ and the JSDF might
find themselves in a very sticky situation.
"Although the Japanese military is willing to accept new changes [proposed by
the DPJ], their primary concern is how to protect the defense budget from any
huge budget cuts," said Suzuki. "However, Kitazawa maintains a good
relationship with the Japanese military, and acts on their behalf. So, senior
members
of the military [generally support the DPJ's efforts to create a new defense
strategy], but are holding firm against the budget cuts."
The outcome here is quite difficult to predict. Certain members of this new
left of center coalition government, especially the Social Democratic Party
(SDP), have consistently charted a pacifist course and almost automatically
endorse all reductions in defense spending. Still, the SDP has not resorted to
a spirited nor prolonged attack as far as Japan's plans for BMD are concerned.
"Although the SDP has never acknowledged that BMD is constitutional, it seems
that they find BMD to be acceptable within their idea of Japan's constitution,"
said Suzuki, who added that for the SDP to adamantly oppose everything on
Hatoyama's current defense agenda "would be suicidal".
"The SDP will not spread their front into lots of different issues as long as
there are specific issues that need to be solved. If the US adopted some
hawkish approach towards North Korea or China, the SDP may be a problem, but so
far, the Obama administration has not done so," said Suzuki.
While some point to the ranks of the former Socialist Party or coalition
members with close ties to academics on the left as those likely to seize upon
the BMD issue to help unravel US-Japan relations, the simple truth is that
anti-BMD sentiment has always been quite close to the surface within the ranks
of the DPJ itself.
In September, for example, soon after the election, one DPJ Lower House member
and DPJ deputy spokesman urged the new government to eliminate BMD altogether.
Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi branded BMD as "almost totally useless" and nearly set off a
political firestorm in the process. Yamaguchi objected strongly to a request
for more than a 50% increase in missile defense-related expenditures in next
year's budget.
"Regardless of the threat from North Korea, defense specialists must know that
no number of SM3s or PAC3s can directly protect us," Yamaguchi told Bloomberg.
"Even current Foreign Minister [Katsuya] Okada has expressed doubts about BMD
in the past. But the program is well established and has worked in field
testing and in surveillance of North Korean launches, so I do not expect any
serious setbacks," said Green.
Last month's successful completion of a joint tracking exercise, the final in a
series of four tests conducted by the Japanese destroyer, JS Myoko, is
the latest indicator of the continuing success of this joint collaboration.
"This is an increasingly proven capability that would benefit both sides. Given
the 'sunk costs' and prospective benefits for both sides, I doubt that
Hatoyama's policies would end or curtail BMD cooperation. Indeed, it is one of
the emerging success stories for the alliance," said Yoshihara. "This is not a
capability that Washington can withdraw or deny without consequences."
Beyond BMD, Green emphasizes the importance of the decision by the DPJ to not
oppose the JSDF anti-piracy mission which suggests the "normalization" of
Japanese security policy may not slow down that much under the DPJ.
"This involves two new precedents, including Japan's first overseas base in
Djibouti and Japan's first rules of engagement allowing the use of deadly force
to protect a third nation's vessels - though against pirates rather than
another state," said Green. "[Normalization] could even accelerate after next
summer's [Upper House] election clears out the socialists and other obstacles
to moving the government back towards the center of the ideological spectrum."
Hatoyama is well aware of the forces at work here, including external forces
that help to shape US-Japan relations over China, Taiwan and North Korea. In
Taiwan, President Ma Ying-jeou has recently accused the US government of being
too easily influenced by China as he declared that the US is stalling with
respect to the planned sale to Taiwan of 66 F-16 fighter aircraft. Ma knows
that he is irritating China enormously by even mentioning this sale, and he
also knows that if this sale goes forward, China will be furious with the US,
and will find ways to punish the US accordingly.
Certainly, North Korea does not appreciate the timing of new revelations in the
Japanese media these past few days concerning the abductions of Japanese
citizens by the North Koreans and the allegation that Kim Jong-il exercised
command authority over North Korean abduction operations starting in the 1970s.
When Kim met with prime minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2002, he denied any role
in these operations.
This almost guarantees that Pyongyang's volatility and confrontational stance
will be ramping up over the coming days, especially when Obama's trip to the
region already lent itself to exploitation by the North Koreans. Their rhetoric
concerning reprocessing and nuclear weapons-related matters of late, for
example, is definitely an indication that Pyongyang has more news flashes in
store for Obama's trip to Asia.
All of this noise from North Korea and increasing static in Taiwan elevates the
status of the BMD and gives the US-Japan alliance added weight, whether
Japanese politicians like it or not.
Hatoyama is engaged in a delicate balancing act here. As everyone mulls the
otherwise anemic economic rebound, he must closely monitor events in China,
Taiwan and North Korea while hoping that when Obama arrives in Tokyo, Obama
understands that the air is charged and that his every move in Japan and
elsewhere in the region could profoundly affect the stability of the Japanese
government and the future of East Asia.
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine.
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