TOKYO - The August 30 elections in Japan could be the most important in a
generation, as many voters are dissatisfied with the political status quo under
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has held power almost
continuously for more than half a century.
Polls show the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) poised to win a
decisive victory, and as an anti-incumbency sentiment grows, the current
buzzword is "change". The voters sniff blood, making it a real possibility that
many LDP heavyweights may be ousted from office.
"If the DPJ comes to power and is able to implant many of its reform proposals,
it could have the potential to lift the country out of its prolonged period of
social and economic malaise," said
Weston Konishi, adjunct fellow at the Washington-based Mansfield Foundation.
"Much like the 2008 US presidential elections, the Japanese elections are about
change," he said.
However, Jeffrey Kingston, Japan expert at Temple University's Japan Campus,
said there are mixed feelings on whether the DPJ can deliver real change. There
are concerns, for instance, that the DPJ's proposed spending plans will
considerably worsen the nation's public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of
nearly 200%, he said.
He said that the party's proposal to eliminate highway tolls "will harm
regional fiscal problems" and increase pollution, "raising questions about how
it intends to achieve its ambitious goals of cutting carbon emissions".
"The ruling LDP looks like dead-enders with no vision or fresh ideas to meet
Japan's serious problems, ranging from the current economic despair to social
welfare, pensions and aging," he said. "That's why they will get a resounding 'sayonara'
[goodbye] on election day. The DPJ will win, not because of its manifesto of
promises but because it is not the LDP."
The public has not warmed to Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the DPJ and
candidate for prime minister of Japan and only one-third of the people support
him to replace Taro Aso, said Kingston. "To me that is surprising and shows how
skeptical the people have become, for very good reasons, of the ruling
political elite," said Kingston.
Hatoyama has to restore the credibility of the government and rebuild trust
among the people, notes Kingston. He also has to mitigate the consequences of
the soaring misery index and do all of this while inheriting a sick economy.
To many observers, Hatoyama will have a lot to prove and the DPJ will be under
close scrutiny. There are widespread doubts that the party can hit the ground
running and wrest power over policymaking from the bureaucracy, as it promises.
Hiromi Kobayashi, an English translator with two sons in university, agreed the
nation needs change, but said that everyone believes the DPJ will probably
fail.
"If you study Japanese history, you will know that Japan takes forever to
change, but when it does, it changes with a degree and speed that is quite
mind-boggling," she said. "There is almost no real debate among the populace
because people do not discuss these things with each other, in spite of the
raucous and opinioned arguments on television. We tend to mull things over
ourselves, in private."
The Japanese realize they can't improve things unless there is a huge shake-up,
and dismissal of people who are too set in their ways to even comprehend
change, she said. "Japanese people hate risk and will only take risk when
there's no other way - and I think everyone feels now that there is no other
way."
LDP politicians have been given ample opportunity to change things, but they
have proven to be incapable, some voters say. It is not because they are
incompetent but because they are limited as a result of the way they have been
raised as politicians, said Kobayashi.
"Watching [qualified] politician after politician struggle, I find myself
thinking that whether you take the best peaches in the world or the lowliest
peaches from the wild, if you place them in a sunny place for a long time,
they'll both rot," she said.
People will be freer to criticize the DPJ in a way that they could not the LDP
because of their influence and power. According to Kobayashi, many Japanese
voters form opinions based on the influence of major media sources.
In the lead-up to Sunday's general election, the media have played a big part
in influencing the average person, with a clear bias in favor of the
opposition. Even NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corp), a state network, has made it
customary to show Prime Minister Taro Aso lashing out one or two phrases,
followed by a calmer and more rational sounding Hatoyama.
As a result of media hype, a number of polls have indicated that voter turn-out
in the upcoming elections will be among the highest ever.
Shinji Yoshida, a 28-year-old car dealer, said he will vote for the DPJ since
Japan needs to make a change for its future. "The problem is that the DPJ will
not be able to make changes, because they don't have the infrastructure or the
money to do it. The DPJ has proven to be a threat, which will force the LDP to
make changes in the future."
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