ADELAIDE - The question of whether the long-term rule of the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) will finally come to an end at Japan's next general election - to
be held sometime before October - is being hotly debated. The answer at the
moment is an unequivocal "yes".
The LDP is fast losing popular support and the principal opposition party, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is confident of victory. Preparation
throughout Japan is well underway for a "regime change", a much-awaited event
in Japanese politics.
Since it was formed in 1955, the LDP has held power for more than half a
century, except for a brief period in 1993. The change in power was short-lived
and the LDP bounced back after less
than a year in opposition, taking the helm of government through
coalition-building.
When Junichiro Koizumi became prime minister in 2001 on a platform of reform
and reconstruction, and then convincingly won re-election in 2005, the LDP
re-emerged as an invincible force. But things have changed substantially in the
three years since Koizumi's retirement in 2006.
The party has returned to its traditional style of using factional-driven
backroom negotiations to form policy, with little consideration for change or
urgent social and economic issues. The result has been three prime ministers in
three years, with none able to get the party's act together. The LDP faces
electoral defeat now as it did in 1993.
But 2009 will be very different from 1993. Today's opposition, led by the DPJ,
is much more robust than the coalition of seven political parties hastily put
together in the aftermath of the LDP's 1993 defeat. Many of the leaders in that
opposition camp had recently migrated from the LDP, including Morihiro
Hosokawa, who became prime minister.
While many members of the DPJ were previously members of the LDP or other
political parties, they have been in the DPJ long enough to identify themselves
more with this party. The DPJ has established itself as a viable alternative as
it has already emerged as the largest single party in the Upper House of the
Diet, the parliament.
If a DPJ government were to be formed, which seems likely, there is a real
chance that a two-party system will replace the single-party system which has
dominated Japan for most of the post-World War II period.
Bad omens for the LDP
Bad news keeps pouring in for Prime Minister Taro Aso and his ruling LDP. Signs
of an LDP defeat are appearing everywhere and there is now hardly any time left
for the LDP leadership to rescue the party from its slump.
Last Sunday, at mayoral elections in Tokyo's neighboring city of Chiba, the
DPJ-supported candidate, 31-year-old Toshihito Kumagai, thrashed the LDP-backed
63-year-old Kojiro Hayashi, who was serving as deputy mayor. Kumagai has now
become the youngest mayor in Japan's history.
This was a third major blow to the LDP at mayoral elections in the past two
months - the other two being in Nagoya and Saitama, both, like Chiba, major
urban centers.
A most important barometer of the political trend will be next month's
elections to the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA), at which 127 members will
be elected. At the last TMA election in 2005, the LDP had a landslide victory
on the back of Koizumi's popularity, and the DPJ's performance was dismal.
However, this time the DPJ aims to become the single-largest party in the TMA
by fielding more than 50 candidates. DPJ president Yukio Hatoyama said at a
meeting in Tokyo, "The metropolitan assembly election is extremely important.
The victor in Tokyo likely will prevail in the national battle." If the DPJ
emerges as the single-largest party in the TMA, it could be the final nail in
the coffin for the LDP.
Many national polls conducted by Japanese newspapers and wire services indicate
that the popular support rate for the LDP is declining fast. In the most recent
Yomiuri Newspaper survey carried out this week, some 42% said they would vote
for the DPJ, while only 25% opted for the LDP. When asked their preference for
prime minister, 46% chose Hatoyama while only 26% backed Taro Aso.
Leadership in the DPJ
When Ichiro Ozawa refused to resign as the DPJ president after a scandal broke
earlier this year involving questionable political contributions made to him in
the 1990s, it seemed the DPJ was headed in the wrong direction. But its
leadership quickly recognized voter sentiment and Ozawa resigned last month.
With his resignation as party president, there seems to be renewed trust in the
DPJ. Hatoyama as the new party president is gaining popularity and is set to
become Japan's next prime minister. (See,
Hatoyama gets his chance, Asia Times Online, May 18.)
The new government in Tokyo would need to move quickly on some of the most
pressing domestic issues, especially in economic and social areas.
Japan faces huge budgetary deficits and its public debt accounts for about 170%
of its gross domestic product, much higher than most other industrialized
nations. How is the DPJ going to manage this?
Its leaders have announced they would introduce tax cuts and spend money on
households and social welfare rather than going for huge infrastructure
projects, symbols of wastage under the LDP. While sensible spending will be
welcome, the DPJ has not quite clearly spelled out where the money is going to
come from.
One source of new revenue could be an increase in the consumption tax, that
stands currently at 5%. Raising it to 10% or even higher has not been ruled
out. Without additional revenue, Japan's level of debt will grow bigger and its
deficit will further swell. People in Japan are ready to embrace this new tax
hike, but the DPJ needs to be honest and announce its position on this crucial
issue as soon as possible.
DPJ or chaos
Japan's political scene has reached a stage where the LDP retaining power is
unthinkable and impractical. There is no sign of the LDP winning a majority in
the Lower House. It is impractical because a new LDP government with a reduced
majority in the Lower House would be unable to pass any legislation as the
Upper House is solidly controlled by the opposition.
True, the DPJ is not a cohesive party, many of its members formerly belonged to
the LDP and left-leaning parties and have different ideological and policy
positions. The party has not clearly stated its position on economic management
and social welfare. Yet, voters have no choice but to give it a chance to form
government. The LDP is well passed its use-by date.
If the DPJ fails for whatever reasons, political chaos will follow. It is hard
to think that the people of this highly developed society, which still has the
world's second-largest economy, would let themselves fall into such a chaotic
political situation.
The next general election will bring a real "regime change", a government whose
policy approach will be distinguishably different from the LDP. This will also
give the LDP a chance to sit back and reflect on how to restructure and renew
itself to give the DPJ a real fight at subsequent general elections.
Purnendra Jain is a professor of Asian studies at Australia's Adelaide
University.
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