US and Japan build a new Silk Road
By Joseph Ferguson
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has begun her first overseas
tour with visits scheduled for China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.
To the relief of the Japanese government, she first touched down in Tokyo,
where she is expected to re-affirm the US-Japan alliance as the bedrock of US
policy and strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
One aspect of Clinton's trip that has received little attention in the media is
the potential for expanded US-Japanese cooperation in Afghanistan. In fact,
this issue is likely to be near the top of her agenda in Tokyo. If the Japanese
government can increase its participation in the campaign in Afghanistan, then
it will surely score points with the Obama administration at a time when many
in Tokyo are concerned that a Democratic White House will bypass Tokyo for
Beijing when it comes to discussion of the crucial strategic issues in Asia.
Over the past few months, there has been much hand-wringing in Tokyo and
Washington about Japan's role in the so-called "war on terror", particularly
concerning operations in Afghanistan. In December, the Japanese Diet passed a
bill amending the Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law, giving a one-year
extension of the Maritime Self-Defense Force's (MSDF) refueling activities in
the Indian Ocean.
Although this was seen as a victory for conservative and pro-US members of the
Japanese political elite, it was a temporary one. The vote was an override of
an earlier Upper House rejection, and because the refueling mission is still a
year-to-year deal, there is still a cloud over Japan's contributions to the war
in Afghanistan. In fact, MSDF refueling missions peaked in 2002 (when 184,400
kiloliters of fuel were delivered) and have since decreased annually (as of
November 2008, the total was 10,940 kiloliters for the entire year).
In a recent interview with the Asahi Shimbun, outgoing US Assistant Secretary
of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs James Shinn expressed the
disappointment in Washington about Japan's contributions: "Japan's refueling
mission in the Indian Ocean is a very limited contribution. It's regrettable
that Japan cannot do anything more. Among the Group of Seven [G-7] nations,
Japan is the only country that has not sent troops to Afghanistan."
Last summer, the Bush administration asked the Japanese government to deliver
$20 billion for the Afghan campaign over a five-year period. The Pentagon
suggested that Japan could do more, such as supplying transport planes and
helicopters, as well as placing Japanese individuals on Provincial
Reconstruction Teams (PRT) operating across the country. The Japanese
government announced in January that it would dispatch volunteers for Afghani
PRTs, but this issue and the larger issue of the war is still a political hot
potato in Japan, as was demonstrated by the shooting death last August of a
Japanese NGO representative in the eastern province of Nangahar.
Meanwhile, after a flurry of activity in the region during the period
2004-2006, Japan's robust Central Asia initiative seems to have tapered off. In
August 2004, then-Japanese Foreign Minister Kawaguchi Noriko initiated a
minister-level dialogue with colleagues from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (Turkmenistan participated as an observer) known as
"The Central Asia plus Japan dialogue". Former prime minister Hashimoto Ryutaro
launched Japan's "Silk Road Diplomacy" in the region in 1997, and between that
time and Kawaguchi's visit to the region in 2004 Japanese loans and development
assistance programs totaled more than $2 billion.
Prime minister Koizumi Junichiro became the first Japanese leader to visit the
region in August 2006. Much of the media attention has been focused on Japan's
desire to access natural resources (oil, gold, and uranium), as well as Japan's
attempt to balance against increasing Chinese influence in the region. But an
overlooked aspect of Japanese investment and loan projects in the region is
Japan's assistance with infrastructure development, particularly airports,
roads, and rail-lines.
The Japanese government has assisted the government of Tajikistan in building a
road into Afghanistan. Afghanistan shares a 2,000-km border with Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan has been a particular focus of
Japanese development assistance projects, and Japan has helped with airport and
railroad construction there. But since Koizumi's visit to the region in 2006,
Japan's Central Asia development and infrastructure projects have largely
dwindled.
The United States and NATO have been flummoxed in recent months with
transportation and logistical problems associated with supplying 50,000
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops, spearheaded by NATO and
US Central Command (CENTCOM). Most essential military goods are flown in by
transport planes, but non-military goods have to be trucked in through Pakistan
and across the Khyber Pass.
The violence in Afghanistan and the inability of the Pakistani government to
guarantee the safety of supply convoys have forced NATO and CENTCOM to open new
routes through the Caucasus, across the Caspian Sea, and into Afghanistan via
the nations of Central Asia. In 2009, at least 20,000 more US troops are to be
dispatched to Afghanistan, causing even more strain on supply routes.
But Washington's relations with the transit nations have always been difficult,
even more so since the government crackdown on dissenters in Andijan,
Uzbekistan in 2005. Underlying all this is the increasing tension in US-Russian
relations over the past five years. As the region's de jure security guarantor
(through the Collective Security Treaty Organization), Moscow's approval is
vital for the success of the trans-Central Asian supply corridor. Many
observers see Moscow's machinations behind the recent and sudden announcement
by the Kyrgyz government forcing the evacuation of the vital US airbase at
Manas by the end of this coming summer.
The ISAF desperately needs help in Central Asia. This is where Japan could step
in. The Japanese government has been looking for ways to support ISAF and to
become more of a player in Central Asia. By helping the United States and NATO
troops with the overland transport corridor, Tokyo could kill two birds with
one stone. The Japanese government would have fewer constitutional issues,
because the supplies trucked over the northern route into Afghanistan are
non-military (primarily food, fuel, and building materials).
Furthermore, the Japanese government could offer to help pay for these supplies
and the transportation costs, alleviating NATO and the United States of this
burden. Japan could also offer to step up its road-building (as well as
railroad) and road-maintenance programs in the region to assure that delays are
minimized.
One of the main objectives of the "Central Asia plus Japan dialogue" is the
promise of "cooperation between Japan and Central Asia with respect to both
regional issues and issues having international dimensions". Japanese Prime
Minister Taro Aso echoed this sentiment in a speech he gave as foreign minister
in June 2006 to colleagues from the five Central Asian nations: "Japan would
like to improve access to transport for both goods and people, and in so doing
enable the people of Central Asia to have a broader view of the world ... ".
In the same speech, Aso spoke of the need to construct a road linking Central
Asia to the sea via Afghanistan and Pakistan. Tokyo hopes to eventually see the
construction of energy pipelines linking Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. Aso
also pointed out that Japan accounts for 30% of the development assistance that
goes into Central Asia by countries that are OECD (Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development) members.
Japan's desire to link Central Asia and Afghanistan was in evidence in November
2005 when Afghanistan was admitted into the Central Asia Regional Economic
Cooperation (CAREC), a grouping organized by the Japan-led Asian Development
Bank (ADB). Tokyo was instrumental in getting the five Central Asian nations
membership in the ADB prior to the year 2000. Unlike the United States, Japan's
image in the region is not generally politically associated.
In a poll conducted by Tokyo University across Central Asia in late 2005, Japan
ranked consistently high in popularity among the populace of the five
countries, and was identified as a "peace-loving" and "non-threatening" nation
by a large number of respondents. Japan also maintains very good relations with
Azerbaijan and Georgia, the two trans-Caucasus nations that mark the beginning
point of the overland supply route.
By helping realize a 21st century Eurasian transport corridor (a modern version
of the Silk Road), Japan can honor commitments to its ally Washington in the
"war on terror", and it can revitalize its Central Asian initiative. Regardless
of whether the Liberal Democratic Party stays in power, or whether the
Democratic Party of Japan forms the next cabinet, a re-energized role in
Central Asia - helping to fight the war on terror in Afghanistan - fits in well
with the vision of policymakers in both parties for an invigorated Japanese
diplomatic strategy in the 21st century.
Joseph Ferguson (jodyferg@earthlink.net) is a consultant for LMI,
a not-for-profit strategic consultancy (lmi.org), the author of Japanese-Russian
Relations, 1907-2007 (Routledge), and writes the chapter on US-Russia relations
in Comparative Connections.
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