TOKYO - Cracks in the North Korean monolith are emerging amid concerns about
the health of the nation's "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il.
Recent Japanese media reports, claiming that North Korea ordered its diplomats
abroad to be on standby for an "important announcement", have prompted yet
another round of intense speculation about the health, even the death, of
premier among Pyongyang watchers and intelligence communities worldwide.
Japan's biggest-circulation Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported on Saturday that
North Korean diplomats overseas were given a curfew which restricted their
business trips to await a vital message, possibly about Kim's health or North
Korea's ties with South Korea. A day later, the Sankei Shimbun, a conservative
Japanese newspaper, followed the Yomiuri article with a report that an
"important announcement" would be made on Monday, citing an unnamed Defense
Ministry source.
Those reports appeared to be misleading, as the Hermit Kingdom went about
business as usual on Monday. South Korea's Unification Ministry spokesman Kim
Ho-nyeon told reporters they had monitored nothing abnormal in the isolated
nation. A Japanese intelligence source told Asia Times Online on Tuesday there
had been no important announcements by North Korea recently.
"That kind of standby has been seen at North Korean embassies abroad for the
past two weeks," said Lee Young-hwa, a well-known expert on Korea and an
economics professor at Kansai University. "So, it could be preventive measures
to stop their diplomats from seeking asylum. North Korean diplomats, especially
in Europe, have been clandestinely knocking on Seoul's door to seek asylum for
more than half a year, even before Kim's collapse last month. The moves may
have accelerated further after Kim's stroke. It's as if mice are running away
before a big earthquake."
The South Korean government has largely ignored North Korean diplomats' asylum
requests, essentially because Seoul thinks they are no longer useful, said Lee,
who is also the representative of Rescue the North Korean People! (RENK), a
Japan-based citizens' group that has supported North Korean asylum seekers in
China since the early 1990s. Lee is an ethnic Korean whose family has lived in
Japan for three generations.
The Sankei Shimbun also reported the North has placed bans on foreign arrivals
and issued bans on overseas and domestic travel for members of the Chongryon
(the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan), an organization of
North Koreans living in Japan who for decades have boasted iron-clad solidarity
to their motherland.
"Pyongyang is increasingly concerned about the spread of [stories about] Kim's
health inside the nation," Lee said. "North Korean officials who welcome Korean
residents in Japan, are pretty much eager to know what Japanese media are
reporting about Kim's health. Then they take back information on Kim to their
own offices and bureaus. This penetration of information should have become
very annoying to Pyongyang, thus the placing of those bans."
Kim Jong-il, 66, allegedly remains paralyzed below the waist as a result of a
stroke, or possibly a brain hemorrhage, suffered on August 14. His condition
prevents him from making public appearances, Lee said, adding that he did not
believe a North Korean state media report on October 4 that Kim had attended a
soccer game, his first public appearance in more than a month. He is also
skeptical of photographs released of Kim inspecting military units, claiming
the images may have been taken earlier because the lush green foliage was
unlikely during the Korean Peninsula's current autumn season.
According to Lee, for the past year North Korea's important decisions have been
made by Chang Sung-taek, the brother-in-law of Kim, and Kim Ok, the Dear
Leader's current de facto wife and former secretary, now in her mid-40s. Lee
also speculates that Kim's personal staff, known as the Workers' Party's Office
of the Clerk, has decision-making clout. The head of this office is Kang
Sang-chun, Kim Jong-Il's classmate during his studies at Pyongyang's Kim
Il-sung University in the early 1960s.
Lee believes that Pyongyang is tightening its grip on the people, a hunch
supported by a report from the Daily NK, a South Korean organization working
for North Korean human rights, which said on Tuesday that Kim Jong-il may have
ordered public executions to prevent the spread of rumors related to his
health.
The Daily NK said the recent executions of four people in Shinuiju on September
28, and those of five people in Hoiryeong on October 7, resulted from a special
decree Kim gave to the People's Safety Agency, citing an inside source from
North Hamkyung province. Kim's decree to the agency at the end of September
aimed to strengthen national discipline, the national safety system, and the
social order, according to the report.
The report continued: "Report those who start questionable rumors and reveal
the circumstances under which one heard the rumor. The decree and the
executions seem to be nothing more than a ploy to prevent the spread of rumors
related to the general's [Kim Jong-il's] health."
Still, Kim appeared to be recovering and remained in control of the country,
Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing a South Korean intelligence source.
But history shows that leaders who lose their health subsequently lose their
grip on the leadership of their respective nation. This may prove especially
true in North Korea. Kim once said he would visit every single regiment of the
People's Army with active forces of more than 1 million. Now, the ailing and
aging North Korean leader may not have the stamina to make regular observations
of the military forces, on-site inspection tours or supervise inspections at
factories and power plants, all of which are intended to bolster the morale of
soldiers and workers and galvanize their unswerving loyalty.
Contingency plans
The United States, China, South Korea and Japan are all in a rush to prepare
for possible emergencies in the Korean Peninsula. The US and China have already
started talks about contingencies should the government in Pyongyang collapse.
The Japanese government is currently reviewing its existing plan, which
includes such steps as evacuating Japanese and American citizens from South
Korea, coordinating with US forces and managing refugees.
South Korea's Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee, joined by US Defense Secretary
Robert Gates at a news conference, said on Friday the US and South Korea were
monitoring the situation closely.
The minister said the state of Kim's health had "significant implications for
the security of the Korean Peninsula. And intelligence communities from both
Korea and the United States are monitoring the situation closely," he said.
News and speculation about Kim's health and whereabouts have raised tensions
throughout the region and thrown Asia's only communist dynasty into turmoil.
Nerves are already on edge.
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a
freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.
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