Japan eyes eased ban on military
exports By David Isenberg
Japan is not known for making bold, radical
moves on military and foreign-policy issues, but over
the past several months there have been signs that it is
contemplating modifying one of its sacrosanct policies:
the prohibition on the export of weapons, or any
hardware or technology that could be defined as having a
military purpose.
On July 20 the Nippon
Keidanren, or Japan Business Federation, called on the
government and opposition in a position paper to review
the ban and consider amendments, while still adhering to
United Nations bans on exports to certain countries and
those involved in international conflicts.
Some
observers suggest that growing public acceptance of
Japan's need to bolster its military capabilities raises
the chances that the export ban will be amended this
year when the government revises its mid- and long-term
defense policies.
The current ban, in place
since 1967 in the administration of prime minister
Eisaku Sato, is a result of Japan's constitution, which
renounces "war as a sovereign right of the nation and
the threat or use of force as means of settling
international disputes", as well as an earlier
parliamentary decree from the 1960s.
Japan has
adhered to guidelines prohibiting arms exports to
communist states and countries subject to any embargo
under United Nations Security Council resolutions, as
well as those involved in or likely to be involved in
international conflicts. Over the years, there have been
minor amendments to the ban. In 1976 prime minister
Takeo Miki expanded the ban to include arms exports to
other nations. In a major but not unexpected change, in
1983 prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone decreed that Japan
could provide arms technologies to the United States.
But the current government has adopted a more
flexible interpretation of the pacifist constitution
than its predecessors, as evidenced by sending the
Japanese Self-Defense Forces to southern Iraq in what
has been described as a humanitarian mission.
In
its appeal on July 20, the Japan Business Federation
said that because of the curbs, the country's defense
industry had been left out of international military
hardware and technology trends and markets. "While
respecting the basic principle of [the ban] rather than
an outright restriction [on exports] it is necessary to
rethink export management, technology exchange and
investment in light of our national interest."
Of course, Japan's military-industrial complex
is far from being a heavyweight contender in the world's
weapons-production arena. The 2002 list of the world's
top 100 arms-producing companies, compiled by the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, listed
only five Japanese companies. The United States had 41.
The real motive: Not to be left
behind If the ban is modified - and an act of the
Diet (parliament) would be required - Japanese and
foreign observers do not expect Tokyo suddenly to start
flooding the market with weapons systems. Observers
point out that the real motivation is a desire not to be
left behind as military technology marches on.
Critics of the ban say that unless it is
reviewed, Japan will fall woefully behind in defense
technology. They point out that advanced military
systems are increasingly being developed through joint
programs and that if Japanese companies are prohibited
from participating in international joint development
projects, their technology will fall behind global
standards.
Specifically, the Keidanren's main
concern is that the ban prevents Japanese contractors
from participating in joint development efforts such as
the US-led 13-nation development of the Joint Strike
Fighter.
Japanese military contractors are under
pressure after the government's move to cap
military-equipment spending, while shifting 100 billion
yen (US$902 million) out of annual procurement of about
700 billion yen to a missile defense system to be
imported from the US.
In fact, the missile
defense system is an important influence on the move to
modify the ban. Last December, when the government
decided to introduce the missile defense system, then
chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda said a review of
the principles of non-export "should be considered".
One aspect of joint development of the missile
defense system means that Japan will provide weapons
parts to the United States. Japanese officials have said
it is likely that the Pentagon would place orders for
covers on the tips of anti-ballistic missiles and other
components.
Yet the Japanese military-industrial
complex is far from having to declare bankruptcy. As an
industry it benefits from a military budget that, in
purely monetary terms, is surpassed only by those of the
United States, Russia and China. This fiscal year alone,
total military spending will amount to the equivalent of
$45 billion.
Some independent analysts are
supportive of the move. Christopher Preble, director of
foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute in
Washington, DC, and author of a forthcoming study on
Japanese security policy in regard to the US, said in a
telephone interview: "In general I was encouraged by the
news. The Japanese are becoming more like a normal
country. It is an expression of willingness on the part
of Japan to assert their independence." He noted that
this was another sign of Japanese willingness to assume
a greater role in world affairs. "There is a growing
domestic political dynamic moving to reexamine a whole
range of restraints that have been imposed on Japan. It
is easier to make that case now with the rise of a new
generation."
Export ban could be eased this
year The government will revise its mid- and
long-term defense capabilities this year, and the ban
could be amended and eased.
Already this year a
committee on defense policy headed by Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi also recommended reviewing the ban.
Shigeru Ishiba, head of Japan's Defense Agency (JDA) and
minister of state for defense, said the ban should be
lifted to allow Japanese companies to develop advanced
weapons.
The ban is to be revisited this year
when an advisory panel and a JDA panel release reports
on Japanese defense. By mid-December, the government is
planning to endorse the first new defense guidelines in
a decade.
In March, a subcommittee of the
Liberal Democratic Party's National Defense Division
proposed a new set of principles to provide greater
export latitude. This would limit the weapons ban to
nations branded by United Nations resolutions and others
as harboring terrorists and abusing human rights, to
nations singled out by UN resolutions for a ban on arms
exports, to regions of ongoing international conflict,
and to nations whose trade-control systems are woefully
inadequate.
Ironically, lifting the ban could
also expose Japan's protected industry to international
competition, possibly harming the 1,000 companies that
provide the JDA with military-related products.
David Isenberg, a senior analyst with
the Washington-based British American Security
Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in
arms control and national-security issues. The views
expressed are his own.
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