OSAKA - Much has been made about the current
global redeployment plans of the United States armed
forces. With a preponderance of bases in Germany, South
Korea and Japan, the present positioning of the 197,000
US military personnel stationed overseas reflects more
accurately the Cold War landscape than today's strategic
realities.
Pointedly troop numbers in both
Germany and South Korea have borne most of the brunt of
the realignment, with the US Army being subject to the
bulk of the current shuffling.
But Japan, often
called the "Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier" for the US, in
effect the USS Japan, may be refurbished, so to speak,
and engaged in weightier missions.
Judging from
the reactions of some sections of South Korea's media
one would almost be forgiven for thinking that
Washington had forsaken its ally, was in the process of
totally disengaging from North Asia and/or readying
itself for a potential strike on Pyongyang. The reality
however is more nuanced and raises significant questions
for the role of Japan in America's global military
jigsaw puzzle.
The Pentagon has argued for some
time, and demonstrated in Iraq and Afghanistan, that the
new generation of military engagements requires more
mobile forces and a reliance on air power, advanced
naval platforms and special-forces. As Douglas Feith,
undersecretary of defense for policy, put it, "Key
premises underlying our forward posture have changed
fundamentally ~{!-~} their purpose is to project power into
theaters that may be distant from their bases."
Both Germany and South Korea are home to a large
US Army presence: 56,000 and 28,000 troops respectively.
This is noteworthy. US Forces in Korea is essentially
primed for one mission alone: a heavy ground-based
artillery, tank and infantry-style assault against North
Korea. Nobody in the Pentagon is seriously talking about
leaving South Korea unprotected, but stationing large
numbers of US forces - especially heavy Army units - on
bases far from the location of likely future conflicts
is neither an economic nor efficient use of US military
power in today's world.
US military personnel in
Japan total about 42,000, including just 2,000 Army
personnel - an unusually small number. It is tasked
primarily with logistical and support roles for US
Forces Korea. More pertinently the Army presence also
includes the current darlings of recent US military
exploits: one special-forces battalion. The rest of the
40,000-strong US Forces Japan is composed of Navy, Air
Force and Marine personnel: services far more in sync
with the Pentagon's vision of a "Revolution in Military
Affairs".
In a recent interview Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated cryptically that
upcoming talks between Washington and Tokyo about the US
military's redeployment will be "completely satisfactory
to Japan, as well as the United States". What this
satisfactory arrangement will be, nobody is quite sure
of yet. However, with a reduced presence on the Korean
Peninsula, the US presence in Japan is likely to be of
increased importance in America's global military
posture.
A favorable
environment Despite (rapidly eroding)
constitutional restraints on use of military force,
Japan is perceived as a solid US military ally, having
contributed to operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Japan
is thus perceived to be a favorable environment for a
continued forward-based US military presence.
Revealingly, Douglas Feith stated last December
in a speech to the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, a US think-tank, that alongside
Australia "we are developing a more robust US-Japanese
alliance", while Washington was focused on developing
"an up-to-date US-South Korean alliance". It is no
coincidence that US military cooperation and presence in
both Australia and Japan are increasing, while a not
uncommon Pentagon view is that Seoul is an increasingly
unreliable ally.
One of the central tenets of
current revisions in America's overseas military
presence has been ease of deployment to new and
unforeseen trouble spots across the globe. The Pentagon
has thus put a premium on US forces being able to move
in and out of host nations with ease. Japan certainly
appears to fall into this category with its generous
host nation support and participation in developing a
missile defense shield. Moreover, the recent enactment
of a raft of new military contingency bills by the
Japanese Diet further contributes to the favorable
operational climate for the US military. Crucially, one
of the new bills updated the acquisition and
cross-servicing agreement, allowing Japan's Self-Defense
Forces (SDF) to provide not only water, fuel and food to
US Forces Japan, but also ammunition.
Okinawa
"a very helpful base" A downsizing of US
Forces Korea has also led to expectations in Okinawa
that US military installations on the island will also
be scaled back. Okinawans have long shouldered a
disproportionate burden of the US military presence in
Japan and unsurprisingly are keen for a more equitable
redistribution of the American footprint. Prefectural
Governor Keiichi Inamine has been particularly
vociferous, calling for 15-year time limits on the use
of new facilities.
What is most likely though is
that Okinawa will remain a key US military installation
for some time to come. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld
already said as much when he also called it "a very
helpful base". US military bases in Okinawa allow for
quick deployment to the Korean Peninsula as well as to
the Taiwan Strait, Southeast Asia and Afghanistan.
In fact, most Okinawans are reluctant to see a
total pull-out of US forces from the island; the local
economy is dependant not only on the bases but also
government subsidies to compensate islanders for the
burden of having military installations eat up 20% of
the island's land. Moreover, many Okinawans's
appreciation of the US presence acts as a good guarantor
of stability in the nearby Taiwan Straits.
This
is not to say that no realignment of the US military
presence on the island is neither being considered nor
warranted. There has been speculation that the Marines
may redeploy some units from their base at Camp Butler
in Okinawa to Hokkaido to ease the burden on Okinawans.
A partial relocation to Hokkaido would give the Marines
more room to train and allow for a quicker deployment to
the Korean Peninsula in the event of a Korean
contingency.
In fact, speculation that some
relocation of the 16,000-strong Marine presence on the
island is in the cards has reached a fever pitch over
the past few days. Unconfirmed reports over the weekend
suggested that Washington was considering shifting
around 2,600 Marines from Okinawa to Camp Fuji and Camp
Zama - the US Army's Japan headquarters. Both bases are
located on the main island of Honshu.
Two of the
apparent motives behind this proposal are that shifting
some Marines to Camp Fuji would forge stronger relations
between the Marine Corps and Japan's SDF, whilst a Camp
Zama move would foster greater service interoperability
between the Marines and Army. Even if the redeployment
of Marines to Camp Zama fails to go ahead the base looks
set to become a nerve center for the US military in
Asia. The US Army is lobbying for Camp Zama to become
the US Army's command center in Asia and the
headquarters of the Army I Corps once it finishes its
tour in Iraq.
Not just Okinawa ~{!-~} For
all its strategic significance, Okinawa is not the only
major US military installation in Japan. With around
20,000 personnel in Japan, both the Air Force and Navy
maintain significant presence in the country.
The US Air Force bases at Misawa and Kadena are
the largest installations of their kind in Asia, with a
combined value of US$9 billion. In fact, of the 67 US
Air Force installations in Asia, 44 are located in Japan
compared with 19 in South Korea. The naval base at
Yokosuka, home to the Seventh Fleet and the aircraft
carrier Kitty Hawk, is the US Navy's largest overseas
installation. The Navy also maintains a base at Sasebo,
which hosts an amphibious squadron, and a naval air
facility at Atsugi, southwest of Tokyo.
The
increasing emphasis on mobility and "lily pads" to be
used as logistics and routing hubs for US forces in the
event of contingencies means Air Force and Navy
installations in Japan will remain or increase in
strategic significance over the years. However, like US
plans to consolidate bases in Korea, there is
speculation that some of the smaller naval and air force
facilities in Japan may be closed down and rolled into
larger bases. The Atsugi naval air facility and Yokota
air force base in western Tokyo are said to be potential
candidates for closure.
With American officials
mulling over changes to US deployments in Japan, we can
expect some changes in the positioning of US forces.
However, with the lack of Japan-based heavy army units,
currently out of favor with Pentagon strategists,
massive cuts on the scale of Korea and Germany combined
with the favorable political climate will most likely
mean that Japan will continue to be America's
"unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the Far East for some
time to come.
Jamie Miyazaki is a
freelance journalist and political risk analyst
specializing in North Asia .
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