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Japan's ambivalence on war with Iraq
By Axel Berkofsky
Is Japan
ready to support a US military strike against Iraq? This
question came up recently during what was supposed to be
a secret meeting of Japanese Foreign Ministry and
Defense Agency officials.
Despite the
government's earlier "read my lips" statements that
supporting US military action to remove Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein by force would not be part of the
"unconditional support" Prime Minister Koizumi promised
US President George W Bush after September 11, Japan is
now reportedly considering continuing to refuel US
warships in the Indian Ocean in the event of a US
military strike against Iraq.
Under the Japanese
Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law enacted last October
29, Japan's Self-Defense Forces have sent naval vessels
and 1,500 troops to the Indian Ocean to refuel US and
British warships as Japan's contribution to the US-led
war in Afghanistan. In April, Japan's mission was
extended for another six months after the US
administration "convinced" Koizumi that sailing home was
not an option just yet, now that, according to
Washington, the war on international terrorism had only
just begun.
While political commentators in
Japan concluded that officials must have been out of
their minds to invite the United States to put
additional pressure on Japan to get involved in a war
against Iraq, the Japanese government countered that the
officials' getting together was nothing more than part
of a "checking all the options" procedure and an attempt
to "balance the relationship with the US and Arab
oil-producing nations".
Not much of a balance,
however, can be expected when bombs start falling on
Baghdad with all Arab nations opposing military action
against Iraq.
Supporting military action against
Saddam when nobody else does is surely the kind of
spirit the Pentagon expects from its junior ally,
although some political commentators in Japan suspect
that policy makers got carried away daydreaming about
becoming a "real" US ally, securing Japan a place on
Bush's list of "best friends".
Applauding US
military action, however, seems to go only so far even
in Japan, and officials were careful to tone down their
rhetoric at their not-so-secret meeting, concluding that
Japan's decision to support a strike against Iraq would
depend on the "purpose" of such an attack as well as on
responses from European and Arab countries.
While Bush has repeatedly made clear that
getting rid of Saddam once and for all is on the agenda,
the Japanese officials set another precondition for
logistical support for the US military that is unlikely
to be taken seriously by the Pentagon when the bullets
start flying:
"Japan would continue to provide
logistical support for the US military against Iraq only
if the US promises not to use Japanese fuel for military
operations against Iraq," announced the officials in yet
another ill-fated attempt to explain why self-declared
pacifist Japan can have a clear conscience contributing
to US-led wars.
Then again, contradictions and
military scenarios that qualify as unrealistic at best
are hardly new in Japanese defense-policy discussions,
although trying to make sure that Japanese fuel will be
used for "peaceful" reasons might turn out to be too
much of a challenge even for the country's
policy-makers. US ideas for Japanese support in the
fight against international terrorism have comprised
more than refueling US and British warships in
non-combat zones for some time, and every once in a
while US government officials, including Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage, show up in Tokyo
urging Koizumi to dispatch Japan's high-tech AEGIS
warships to the Indian Ocean and move on to the Persian
Gulf when the time comes.
Although flattered by
so much US comradeship and constant "we are in this
together" reminders coming from the White House, Koizumi
has so far resisted US pressure to deploy the AEGIS
destroyers to the Indian Ocean and beyond. The Japanese
Navy, on the other hand, seem keen on the idea of
sailing toward danger zones and has done its own share
to increase the pressure on the government to send the
sophisticated destroyers closer to the potential action.
This May it was revealed that high-ranking
Japanese naval officers secretly encouraged their US
counterparts and US government officials to ask Tokyo to
dispatch the AEGIS warships, which are equipped with
weapon systems and radar that closely complement US
weaponry. Even when it turned out that prime minister
Koizumi was the last to know about the Japanese Navy
taking over Japan's defense policy, he casually advised
the Japanese press not to make too much of "navy pals
chatting off the record".
Ironically enough, it
might be Japan's anti-terrorism law itself that prevents
Japanese vessels from sailing into the Persian Gulf; the
law only authorizes Japanese engagement if the al-Qaeda
terrorist network is the target of US military
operations. Hence, as long as there is no clear evidence
linking al-Qaeda and the September 11 attacks with the
Iraqi government led by Saddam, Koizumi would have to
call his troops home and get ready for another round of
Japan-bashing in the United States. Given the skills of
US secret services, linking Saddam to international
terrorism and al-Qaeda will be the easy part, and
critics in Japan suspect that it might not be too long
before Koizumi and Japan's defense establishment will be
standing alongside Bush pointing the finger at the "evil
folks" in Iraq.
In order to silence the critics
and avoid possible legal problems, some in Koizumi's
cabinet and the Defense Agency advocate an additional
anti-terrorism law that would enable the Self-Defense
Forces to provide logistical support for a US military
operations in Iraq and all over the planet. Whether
Koizumi will opt for a new anti-terrorism law,
"reinterpret" the current one or back off altogether
remains to be seen, although he can always count on
Washington helping him to make up his mind sooner or
later. Unlike in the United States, sending troops off
to war does not boost the government's public approval
ratings in Japan, and wanna-be-international-big-shot
Koizumi might instead find himself replaced one day soon
if his rhetoric on reforms remains empty and the
country's economy stays paralyzed. Bush, on the other
hand, is eager to avoid this fate by any and all means
and seems ready to strike before domestic scandals and
economic woes take over the headlines.
GETTING SADAM - A series starting
Monday, July
29
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Japan navy's salvo
catches politicians off guard
