Page 2 of 2 SPEAKING
FREELY Alternative energy: It's not for
everybody By Michael G
Gallagher
hawking weaponry may be,
it's not going to be able replace Russia's
reliance on pumping oil.
The Russians are
certainly aware of their heavy dependence on fuel
exports. In April, the government announced that
it was planning to spend $1 billion over the next
three years to develop a nanotechnology industry
with the aim of eventually reducing Russia's
over-reliance on energy exports. But despite their
recognition of the problem,
the Russians may find it very difficult to wean
themselves from the easy money provided by
petroleum exports, not to mention weapons sales.
Kalashnikov rifles and MiG fighters are more the
symbols of Russian industrial prowess than kinder
and gentler products such as mobile telephones and
notebook computers.
Disruptions in the
political and economic life of oil-producing
nations could follow closely behind any major
switch by their customers to alternative energy
technologies. Divided between a Muslim north and a
Christian south, Nigeria simply has no reason to
exist as a united country without its oilfields.
Russia, without the massive cash flow
provided by its oil and natural-gas reserves,
would be forced to rely for its continued economic
existence on the far skinnier profits generated by
other raw-material exports and its
none-too-competitive factories. Sliding incomes
could drive the Russians to peddle their military
hardware at fire-sale prices in trouble spots
around the world.
Doing the big switch to
alternative energy is often described in the West
as one of the best ways to pull the teeth of
Islamic radicals. "Starve the beast" is the phrase
often used when talking about using new energy
technology to counter the jihadis' ready access to
Middle Eastern oil money.
But mortally
wounded predators don't die easily, and any
large-scale switch to renewable fuels may cause a
violent backlash from the jihadis as they see
Islam's only real claim to importance in world
affairs relegated to dusty exhibits in a science
museum. The jihadis see themselves as the only
true defenders of Islam. They aren't going to sit
back and do nothing as the culture they've sworn
to defend with their lives is transformed into a
vast theme park frequented largely by infidels.
And the switch to alternative energy
doesn't have to be anywhere near 100% to put a big
crimp in the finances of most oil-producing
nations. Even a scenario where just 20% of the
world's gasoline consumption is replaced by
biofuels is going to induce a bad case of chills
in the economies of many oil-producing states.
Another ugly fact that will become more
apparent as time goes by is something that was
mentioned earlier - most fossil-fuel-exporting
countries are technology consumers, not technology
producers. Even if the developed countries banded
together to give energy producers such as Algeria
free hydrogen fuel cells and solar panels, those
states still aren't going to have anything to sell
that will compensate for the shutting off of the
oil spigot.
By 2025, many people in Iran
or Algeria may have safe, clean reliable sources
of energy for their tarpaper shacks.
The
only way to ease the transition to an
alternative-energy economy for today's
fossil-fuel-exporting countries might be some type
of international agreement that allows for the
controlled phase-in of the new energy
technologies. Stretched over a substantial period
of time - let's say 15 years - such an
orchestrated introduction of new energy tech might
give fossil-fuel-exporting nations time to adapt
to the new energy economy and develop their own
technology sectors, which would give them the
means to create products that would provide them
with the income to survive the transition to
renewable fuels.
The big problem with this
idea is that once a new technology reaches a
certain level of maturity coupled with reduced
costs, it can spread very rapidly. In 1908, Henry
Ford began mass production of his famous Model T
automobile. By the time the last Ford Model T
rolled off the assembly line in 1927, 15 million
of the ugly-duckling cars had sent the buggy-whip
manufacturers straight into the history books.
The domination of the skies by commercial
jetliners happened even more quickly. The first
successful passenger jet, the Boeing 707, entered
service in 1958. The last commercial airline
flight of the propeller-driven Lockheed
Constellation, one of the mainstays of commercial
aviation before the arrival of jets, took place in
1967.
The idea of a controlled, gradual
phase-in of renewable fuels also suffers from
another problem that is closely tied to the rapid
spread of any new technology: the desire of those
who expect to benefit most from the introduction
of a new technology to adopt the new way of doing
things as quickly as possible. It's difficult to
imagine any corporation willingly agreeing to an
international treaty that dents its ability to
make money, or a nation voluntarily limiting its
economic freedom for the sake of another,
particularly if the other country is viewed as a
potential enemy.
The
birth of an alternative-energy economy is
necessary from the twin standpoints of
environmental protection and international energy
security. But don't be too surprised if there are
many people who will refuse to wish the new baby a
long and happy life.
Michael G Gallagher works and lives
in South Korea as an English instructor in the
general education department, Namseoul University.
He has a bachelor of arts degree in history from
Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, and
master's and PhD degrees in the field of
international studies from the University of Miami
in Coral Gables, Florida.
(Copyright
2007 Michael G Gallagher.)
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