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The
master plan for Myanmar
The reforms in Myanmar praised by Western diplomats were made public in 2003 as
the "Roadmap to Discipline-Flourishing Democracy". In private, a "master plan"
set out how the military would deal with the United States, break away from
China's grasp, and keep the generals in power. From ceasefires to the release
of Aung San Suu Kyi, the regime planned exactly which buttons to press to get
the West onside. - Bertil Lintner (Feb 9,
'12)
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Muslim 'terror threat' belied
by numbers
A United States study on domestic terrorism has registered a sharp drop in
Muslim Americans implicated in plots in 2011, defying dire warnings that the US
last year faced its greatest threat since 2001. The report, which notes that
America's Muslim minority has a very low degree of radicalization, coincides
with official admissions that Washington exaggerated al-Qaeda's strength
following 9/11.
- Jim Lobe (Feb 9, '12)
China's liberals keep the flame alive
The influence in China of reformist intellectuals has been on the wane ever
since the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Yet it is significant that remnant
liberals both in and out of the party have in the past several months staged a
vigorous campaign to hold aloft the flickering flame of reform. Nationally
known figures are patrons of their debates. - Willy Lam
(Feb 9, '12)
Turmoil deepens bleak Tehran
winter
As the winter mercury slumps and pollution hovers over Tehran, it's not the
smog but deteriorating standards of living and the feeling that the world is
conspiring against them that has Iranians most vexed. A currency crisis
continues to grip the city and hope is absent - not so the supply of kidneys
from financially stricken donors. - Jason Rezaian
(Feb 9, '12)
Hiatus in European debate on
Iran
The conspicuous absence of debate over Persian Gulf tensions at last week's
Munich Security Conference underlines Europe's acquiescence to America on Iran.
While failing to consider the mutual benefits of a European-Iranian security
dialogue, leaders also seem blind to a reorientation in US defense policy that
could cost the continent dearly in blood and treasure. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 9, '12)
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To be abducted in the
Philippines
The Philippines remains one of Southeast Asia's most dangerous destinations for
foreigners, as shown this month by the kidnapping of two European birdwatchers
in Mindanao. At least 21 foreigners were abducted last year as part of a
widening kidnap-for-ransom racket run by criminal groups that is taking the
shine off efforts to lure more investment and tourism.
- Joel D Adriano (Feb 9, '12)
The Russian winter of
discontent
With Moscow's faith in Washington's "reset" shattered by the Libyan bombing
campaign, Russia is strengthening its pivot towards Northeast Asia. China is
the important partner in economic and foreign affairs, while regional allies
are needed to help extract vital gas supplies from the East Siberian
permafrost. However, the key piece to the Eurasian puzzle is North Korea.
- Yong Kwon (Feb 9, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Syria: another US stepping
stone
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton shies from Bush-era talk of a
"coalition of the willing", but the rallying call to promote a political
transition in Syria cannot be clearer. The fates of Libya and Syria could not
be more similar. Deep in economic crisis, the US and Europe are looking to
regenerate capitalism through widespread war with the developing countries
before being ready for war with Russia and China.
- Ardeshir Ommani (Feb 9, '12)
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India pivots, and pivots again
India is in a political bind. While its ruling class favors a close assignation
with the United States of the kind that fostered India's development as a
nuclear power, the US demands too much. Close relations with China and healthy
communication to build trust in South Asia and Iran are the imperative, yet
India is under pressure to turn once again as American pushes for it to take
imports of Iranian oil off the energy menu.
- Vijay Prashad (Feb 8, '12)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Syria through a glass, darkly
Deception and power plays are high in the Syrian drama, with Damascus not
nearly as isolated as the West and its Gulf-based allies claim, and Washington
increasingly viewing regime change as crucial in hurting Iran. Most ominous for
countries that fear another "liberation" descending into militia rule is the
stepped up arrival of troops, weaponry and logistics from Libya's battlefields.
- Pepe Escobar (Feb 8, '12)
A struggle set to run and run
Pro-regime Syrians celebrating Russia's veto of a UN resolution demanding
President Bashar al-Assad step down were likely unaware of the machinations,
with Moscow targeting Washington's missile defense plans and the US sabotaging
the vote. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Damascus added heft
in a tug-of-war that is set to dominate Russian and American presidential
elections, with Syrians suffering meantime.
- Sami Moubayed (Feb 8, '12)
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Hong Kong clash stirs the pot for
Taiwan
As relations between people in Hong Kong and mainlanders in the city plummet,
Taiwanese have reason for concern that the same social frictions could mar
developing ties. Yet as Beijing and Taipei close ranks, the conditions that
have stirred intense feelings among Hongkongers towards their mainland brethren
are far from being present to embitter the strengthening cross-strait brew. - Jens
Kastner (Feb 8, '12)
 SINOGRAPH
Good reason to
red-carpet Merkel
All European Union countries speak for themselves and for the EU as a whole in
China, but Germany is seen by Beijing - quite naturally - as its colossus. With
China interested in how the euro and Europe, perhaps politically united, might
be saved, visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel got extra special red-carpet
treatment.
- Francesco Sisci (Feb 8, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
NATO's not so smart initiative
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has launched a trust fund project to
secure or destroy hidden weapons and munitions in Tajikistan. The first
initiative in a move to low-cost support, it should mark a breakthrough in
multilateral cooperation, but budgetary constraints and commitments in
Afghanistan are making the "smart defense" initiative anything but a reality.
- Emanuele Scimia (Feb 8, '12)
Pakistan defiant on Iran gas
pipeline
Pakistan, in defiance of increased pressure and intensified warnings from the
United States, insists it will press ahead with construction of a pipeline
carrying gas from sanctions-hit Iran. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider
(Feb 8, '12)
Pakistan snubs US over Osama
informer
Pakistan has rejected an American bid for the release of Shakil Afridi, the
doctor who helped the Central Intelligence Agency establish Osama bin Laden's
whereabouts in the successful US raid to kill the al-Qaeda leader on Pakistani
soil. Branded a "friend" by US lawmakers who want to give him citizenship, and
a "national criminal" by the commission probing the incident, Afridi faces a
possible trial for treason - and the death penalty. - Amir Mir
(Feb 7, '12)
Obama switches play on war with
Iran
United States President Barack Obama used a prime-time slot before the Super
Bowl to show a more serious commitment to engagement in diplomacy with Iran.
While that makes good economic sense, it suggests he may be thinking a few
moves ahead of the full-pelt sprint towards war and playing a domestic
political game.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 7, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
Syria and those
'disgusting'
BRICS
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the double veto on
Syria by Russia and China a "travesty", while US ambassador to the UN Susan
Rice says it was "disgusting". Now it's time to get on with Plan B - to plunge
Syria into civil war.
- Pepe Escobar (Feb 6, '12)
 SPENGLER
Gold, bonds as
options on
inflation
Economists, commentators and financial advisers are talking nonsense when they
insist on referring to gold as an inflation hedge. Clear-headed comparison of
the gold price and US government bond yields shows gold for what it is: an
undated put option on the dollar's reserve role. (Feb
6, '12)
AN ASIA TIMES ONLINE EXCLUSIVE
Taliban eat into Afghanistan's core
Even as several tracks of peace talks with the Taliban open up, Asia Times
Online has learned that senior members of the Western-trained and financed
Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police plan to defect with vast
numbers of their colleagues to the militants once foreign forces start to leave
the country.
- Hamza Ameer and Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud
(Feb 3, '12)
<IT WORLD>
Facebook heads for IPO
Social networking giant Facebook has at last moved towards selling its shares
to the public, seeking to raise a possible US$5 billion. The sale would propel
27-year-old co-founder Mark Zuckerberg to the top ranks of rich folk, with a
$28 billion stake. (Feb 3, '12)
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos.
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IMF faults
Pakistan's optimism on economy
The Pakistan government's economic forecasts, which in themselves paint a grim
picture, are far too rosy, says the International Monetary Fund, which is
particularly concerned at the easy monetary policy of the central bank. The
IMF's findings are likely to put more pressure on the weak rupee. - Syed
Fazl-e-Haider
Bulgaria at the crossroads
of
Euro-Caspian energy plans
Competing projects to transport Caspian gas to Europe have put Bulgaria center
stage, with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a recent visitor, sending
her Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy on a follow-up trip next week - just when
Alexei Miller, CEO of Russian gas giant Gazprom, will also be in the country. - Robert
M Cutler
Gas enters post-Nabucco era
For more than a decade, Nabucco was the only pipeline project planned to
transport Caspian gas to the European Union. Now Azerbaijan holds the main
cards, with cash reserves to build a pipeline that Europe seems unable to
finance, and coherent planning that eludes the Europeans. - Vladimir Socor
Trade deficit hits US growth
The most significant barrier to robust economic growth in the United States is
the country's trade deficit. Every dollar that goes abroad to purchase oil or
Chinese-made consumer goods and does not return to purchase US exports, is lost
domestic demand that could be creating American jobs. - Peter Morici
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Price instability
The US economic recovery and a pledge to keep interest rates low provide great
incentive for believers and non-believers to jump into the market.
Policymakers' efforts to avoid a system blowup have created a backdrop
conducive to a speculative blow-off. (Feb 6, '12)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
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Obama's
peace
doves on Iran’s skies
President Barack Obama has spoken on Iran. He chose a terrific occasion that
would catch prime attention of the American public - a live interview during
NBC's Super Bowl pre-game show on Sunday night. In essence, he laid to rest the
feverish speculations ...
- M K Bhadrakumar
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[Re The great
carbon bubble Feb 9, 2012] Please provide a single piece of physical
evidence that temperature and sea level variations since the Industrial
Revolution are in any way anomalous compared to variations before the 18th
century.
Geraldo Luํs Lino
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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