HONG KONG - For the millions around the world who supported the candidacy of
United States president-elect Barack Obama, let the disappointment begin.
Rhetoric fades and symbolism pales in the harsh light of familiarity. But the
biggest culprit in this emerging, imminent disillusionment is simple reality.
The world's investment of hope in Obama will likely fare little better than
shares or property investments in 2008. Items on the Obama agenda, often hidden
in plain sight, are bound to disconcert many of his overseas fans. Much of the
disappointment will be unavoidable.
For many foreigners (speaking from the American viewpoint) as well as many US
voters, Obama's attractiveness lay in being
someone other than George W Bush. John McCain was also not Bush but his
policies seemed a lot closer to Bush's, especially in Iraq.
One choice only
McCain said he would stay in Iraq for 100 years if necessary while Obama
pledged to end the war. But often there's only one decision that a president
can make, regardless of party or beliefs. So McCain or Obama would likely
withdraw forces as quickly as the military says it's feasible without
endangering American lives, ensuring the collapse of the US-installed political
system, reigniting civil war, or increasing Iranian influence. Whatever Obama's
intention, given those parameters, the war won't end anytime soon. Obama's
supporters at home and abroad will be disappointed.
Similarly, with the financial crisis, the broad consensus among economists and
elected officials is that there are limited options, and they involve
unwavering government support for Wall Street. We don't know what would have
happened without the federal bailout package, but we have seen that it's taken
more than a month for markets to be able to piece together a handful of trading
sessions that simulate the good old dull days. Meanwhile, Main Street, the
so-called real economy, is looking mighty vulnerable to further shocks.
Obama won kudos - and some say, the election - for taking a measured approach
to the bailout package. He insisted on more taxpayer protections and
Congressional oversight, but he didn't get out in front, was happy to be a
follower, not a leader. He may have been doing the right thing and adhering to
the "one president at a time" rule, or leaving a technical matter for experts.
Or Obama may have been ducking a tough situation. We may learn more if he
participates in the economic summit Bush has called for later this month.
Family ties
Expectations won't be met in the countries where Obama has family ties. Kenya,
which declared Thursday a national holiday to celebrate Obama's victory, and
Indonesia will find that US policy won't change much with the inauguration of
an adopted son. Kenya's disappointment will spread to Africa, where Bush has
offered unprecedented assistance to fight AIDS. Obama will be hard pressed to
surpass or even match that generosity, particularly with the US deficit out of
control.
Indonesia has the world's biggest Muslim population, and Obama's Muslim
heritage through his Kenyan father has fascinated the Islamic world. As in the
US, some believe he really is a Muslim. But they will be disappointed with the
slow pace of US withdrawal from Iraq and the likely escalation of the war in
Afghanistan. They may also be upset to see him attending Sunday church services
in Washington rather than Friday prayers at the mosque.
Even where Obama does have new policy ideas and wants to implement them, there
will be little immediate impact. Even when a president chooses to change
America's position, he'll find the US government is an aircraft carrier, not a
speed boat, and turning one is a long, difficult process. It takes a lot of
effort and time for a behemoth to shift direction, even when it's change you
can believe in.
Obama's actions, or lack of them, on the expectations of others may cause some
disappointment outside America. But there are some items on the Obama agenda
that will go forward and have real global impact. For the most part, the world
won't like it.
Changed climate
Take climate change. Next month, the second United Nations global meeting to
negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol opens in Poznan, Poland. Obama has
pledged to get serious about fighting global warming. Prospective members of
his team will undoubtedly attend the December confab, and they will certainly
strike a different tone from the Bush administration's truculent opposition to
committing to carbon emission cuts. However, the inconvenient truth is that
United States under president Obama will not join the successor to the Kyoto
Protocol. No US president will sign an agreement that exempts three countries
among the top five carbon emitters, and that will never change as long as the
UN insists that exemption is non-negotiable.
But rejecting the UN regime won't be the end of the Obama administration's
climate change policy. With US public opinion favoring action on global
warming, the country in recession, and economic stimulus in the cards, big
changes are possible. The outgoing Bush administration's two oil men at the top
represent fossils of that industry's once firm grip on Washington. The US auto
industry is in dire straits, open to any proposals that will keep the assembly
lines moving. Expect the Obama administration to offer incentives and tax
advantages for US produced initiatives to cut oil consumption and employ
alternative energy and do it fast. In return, America will tackle the problems
with the "yes, we can" approach that created the A-bomb and iPod.
America's economic competitors will face a double whammy. First, they'll find
barriers to penetrating the world's biggest market that will encourage them to
bring their own technology and production to the US. Second, they'll face
competition, not just in the US, but globally from whatever these US companies
develop. In this field and others, as finance regulation crimps opportunities
to amass fortunes by manipulating numbers, America's creativity and intellect
will be unleashed productively to the peril of rivals around the world. For
rivals grown accustomed to a fat, happy, self-absorbed Uncle Sam - especially
in Asia - this is the America their parents warned them about.
That will be even more true if Obama follows through on plans to ensure every
American willing to commit to public service will be able to afford college. By
just electing Obama after he was tagged an elitist by Hillary Clinton, of all
people, and subsequent opponents explicitly rejected the anti-intellectualism
of Bush and Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Americans seemed
to have figured out that an editor of Harvard Law Review is better qualified
for leadership than a reforming drunk or the mother of a pregnant teen due to
marry a high school dropout.
Obama is about to take the most powerful position in the US. Some would say the
second biggest job in the country belongs to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the
governor of California. They are examples, across two generations, of the
America that attracts the best and brightest from the around the world.
Americans by choice
"A new dawn of American leadership is at hand," Obama said in his victory
address on Tuesday night in Chicago, based on "the enduring power of our
ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope".
America under Bush was a country judged on its faults; Obama's America will be
judged on its aspirations. It's a standard that America has struggled to
fulfill, but one that few countries can dream of. Leaders around the world who
supported Obama will find themselves pressed to answer why their citizens lack
the rights and possibilities Americans enjoy. They'll need to find convincing
answers while facing an America that's smarter, more optimistic, and more
enthusiastic than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency.
An America that earns the world's respect is an America ready to lead the
world. But is the world ready to follow? In Obama's victory ushering in a new
America, there's an ancient lesson for the rest of the world: be careful what
you wish for.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the
world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie. He followed the US presidential race for Asia
Times Online as Campaign Outsider.
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