CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER Democrats need unconventional wisdom
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - America's Democrats open their national convention with the party
again poised to live up to its symbol, the jackass. After stunning defeats in
2000 and 2004, the Democrats have a historic candidate to run against an
unpopular president's record featuring a faltering economy and a tragic war.
But strategists for Senator Barack Obama are following a losing playbook.
After the soaring rhetoric and unprecedented enthusiasm of Obama's primary
season victory, in which David slew the Hillary Clinton Goliath, the Illinois
senator's campaign has reverted to
mediocrity or worse. After catching lightning in a bottle in February to pile
up an insurmountable lead in the party nomination race, the Obama campaign
seemingly ran out of ideas and energy.
Supporters can only hope Obama's Chicago brain trust is just keeping its powder
dry for the main event when it can overwhelm Republican John McCain's campaign
with its superior financial might and supporter enthusiasm. Huffington Post
columnist A J Rossmiller even suggested last week that Obama is copying
Muhammad Ali's rope-a-dope tactic that defeated George Foreman in Zaire,
allowing McCain to punch himself out in these early rounds so Obama can swoop
in for a stunning coup de grace when it really counts.
Biden his time
Choosing Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his vice presidential candidate didn't
indicate the Obama campaign had shifted back to February's winning ways. It was
a conventional move, not a stunner, that addresses some gaps in the Obama
portfolio. Biden is the Democratic dean of foreign policy on Capitol Hill,
respected enough for President George W Bush to dispatch him to Georgia as a
mediator earlier this month. Biden's a skilled Washington inside player, which
may be more helpful to President Obama than the candidate, with a long
legislative record. A Catholic born in the key state of Pennsylvania, Biden
also projects a blue collar vibe despite 36 years in the Senate, while Obama
who grew up on Food Stamps doesn't. In the same vein, Biden provides a fiery
counterpoint to Obama's cool facade.
There's plenty to like about Joe Biden as a running mate. But there are dozens
of other choices that would have given a similar feel to the ticket. The Biden
pick isn't a game changer the way Hillary Clinton or Chuck Hagel might have
been. He's a safe choice, balancing Obama's promise of change rather than
amplifying it. Despite his primary season critique of Obama's experience that
the McCain's campaign rapidly aired, Biden fulfills the first rule of vice
presidential nominees: do no harm. There's nothing to quarrel about over the
selection. But there's plenty to dislike about hoopla surrounding it.
Back when party conventions still had real functions, they included picking the
vice presidential nominee. The presidential candidate would consult with party
elders to hash out a choice for number two. Ronald Reagan broke that mold in
his unsuccessful 1976 presidential bid, when he named moderate Pennsylvania
Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate before securing the nomination in
a bid to reassure party leaders and voters he wasn't a right-wing lunatic. That
opened the door for the vice presidential choice to escape the convention week
box.
'Suspense and interest'
The Obama campaign chose to break the Olympic lull and rev up ahead of the
convention by making the vice presidential announcement into a major mainstream
and digital media event. That latter focus is a first, another step in
nurturing an online base that has worked so well for funding. "We used the vice
presidential announcement to build suspense and interest among supporters,"
Obama strategist Linda Douglass explained in the afterglow of Saturday's
announcement.
The campaign has taken other steps to build an online buzz. It ran a "Backstage
with Obama" promotion, giving contributors an opportunity to be one of ten
randomly selected recipients of a backstage pass for Obama's acceptance speech
Thursday night. The speech itself has also been transformed, moved from the
convention floor to a 75,000-seat football stadium. The campaign offered
supporters tickets to ensure a full house for the event and energize supporters
about it. Most of all, it took what would have been a signature moment of the
convention and raised it to another level.
But why?
All of these bits of stagecraft may have fundraising value and support the idea
of change at the most superficial level. They also fit the McCain campaign's
criticism that Obama is just a celebrity who isn't ready for political prime
time.
All about Barack
The reason to run on style is that you can't win on the substance. But Obama
can win on the substance. Don't take my word, ask the McCain campaign. During
its summer surge that's pulled the Arizona senator into a statistical dead heat
with Obama, the campaign hasn't been featuring McCain and his positions. The
McCain campaign will talk about anything but the issues except in the most
general terms, in the mold of "compassionate conservative" George W Bush, who
proved to be neither.
The Republican has moved up in the polls it by making the campaign a referendum
on Obama and pounding the Democrat with negative ads. On Sunday at 3am, the
McCain side released its most cynical effort yet, a criticism of Obama on
behalf of Hillary Clinton and her supporters for not choosing her as his
running mate, without any mention of McCain.
The Obama campaign says it learned from John Kerry's failure to respond to the
Swift Boat Veterans attacks in 2004, so it feels compelled to hit back. But
that leaves the Obama team on the back foot, letting the other side pick the
debate topics rather than setting its own agenda. So far, the Obama side hasn't
proven to be very effective counter-punchers. Moreover, when the Obama campaign
hits back, or tries to, its jabs such as poking McCain for not knowing how many
houses he owns - the correct answer is none; Cindy McCain owns several - the
Obama team invites charges it's breaking Obama's centerpiece theme to rise
above the old politics.
Even though it's on the right side of most issues for most voters, the Obama
campaign isn't tackling them with anything like the enthusiasm or the impact
that the McCain campaign brings to attacks on Obama. Despite running for
president for a year and a half and eight of ten Americans believing the
country is moving in the wrong direction, the Obama campaign has not yet
projected simple, accessible messages on the key issues to get the majority of
voters to nod in agreement with its candidate and pull the level for him in
November.
Higher taxes and defeat
Take the economy, polling as the top issue among voters. Looking for a simple
soundbite on Obama's economic plan? Obama wants to raise taxes. Where does that
bite come from? The McCain campaign. If you dig deeper on specifics, Obama
opposes measures to cut the price of oil, including a gas tax holiday and more
domestic drilling to wean us off imported oil, as the McCain campaign tells it
louder and better than the Obama campaign.
The most galling example of the Obama campaign's failure is on Iraq. The
majority of Americans have opposed the war throughout the campaign and Obama
opposed the invasion of Iraq from the outset. McCain has been an enthusiastic
supporter of the discredited war, yet his campaign has offered a winning
narrative on the issue. Obama favors defeat that would strengthen America's
enemies, the McCain side says, while McCain wants to end the conflict honorably
and preserve the gains we've paid for in American blood and billions.
It seemed like a gift to Obama when Iraq's government called for a timetable
for US withdrawal, basically adopting his position. Even now that the Bush
administration and Iraq have agreed on a timetable to withdraw US forces from
Iraq by the end of 2011, McCain's side can claim even stronger ownership of the
issue. McCain can take credit for championing the so-called surge, sending
additional US forces to Iraq, helping to reduce violence against civilians, and
therefore making it possible to end American involvement honorably.
Of course there's a winning argument for the Obama side to make about Iraq, as
there is about the economy, heath care and more. Rather than more bright lights
and chirpy megabytes, this week Obama better getting all those Americans who
agree with him to vote for him.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the
world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
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