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Striking fear in
Italy
By Federico Bordonaro
On July 18, a group called Abu Hafs
al-Masri Brigades - which claimed responsibility
for the July 7 attacks on London's public
transportation system - threatened Italy via the
Internet. The statement warned that Rome should
withdraw its troops from Iraq within one month if
it wanted to avoid a terrorist attack similar to
the ones executed in Madrid and London. The
authors of the message added that this would be
Italy's last warning. The al-Masri Brigades also
threatened Italy on August 29, 2004, likewise
demanding the withdrawal of Italy's military
contingent from Iraq.
This explicit
terrorist threat (which evokes the possibility of
using chemical weapons against Italian cities)
comes at a time of feverish government activity to
counter Islamist terror cells in Italian
territory, and in the midst of a very confused
political battle over new anti-terror measures
proposed by Interior Minister Giuseppe Pisanu.
The Italian context
When London
was attacked on July 7, Italy's main political
parties already had complex stances on the ongoing
conflict in Iraq. Italy is currently in the throes
of a process of political disintegration, taking
place inside both its right-of-center and its
left-of-center alliances. Although the parties
that make up the alliances are divided on many
issues, the future of Italy's presence in Iraq is
emerging as a decisive one, at least in the
foreign policy sphere, while the measures
regarding terrorism and immigration appear to be
the most urgent and contentious items on Rome's
domestic policy agenda.
The withdrawal of
Italian troops from Iraq had been planned well
before the July 7 attacks. But although almost
everyone in the Italian parliament agreed on the
necessity of debating the technical and political
details involved with military withdrawal, the
views on how and when to perform it remained very
different. The right-of-center majority often
stated that the date of Italy's withdrawal was to
be agreed with the United States and the newly
elected Iraqi government. Basically, this position
means waiting until the Iraqi government can count
on the new Iraqi forces to maintain law and order
in the country; at that point, Baghdad would
presumably ask foreign powers to leave its
territory.
However, Italian Prime Minister
Silvio Berlusconi recently (even before July 7)
hinted at the possibility of a gradual withdrawal
to be initiated this fall. The problem is that
Italy is heading toward an important year;
elections are scheduled for spring 2006 and in
June of that year there will be elections for a
new head of state. Accordingly, calculations about
the most politically convenient posture on the
Iraq issue are permanently on the forefront of
Italy's fragmented political landscape.
The left-of-center opposition, for its
part, is showing even more acute signs of
disunity. As the left democrats of the former
Communist Party compete with the Margherita Party
(a left-oriented centrist Christian Democrat
party) to conquer the moderate votes, they are
internally torn by the split between pacifist
hardliners on one hand and more pro-Atlanticist
pragmatists on the other. The former incline
toward a common anti-war front with the
neo-communist and green parties; the latter are
already working to revive dialogue with the US and
its allies after its (expected) win in next year's
political elections. Romano Prodi, the
opposition's leadership candidate for next year's
election, is therefore trying to find a viable
compromise between the two "souls" of the Italian
left. Even if such a task is accomplished, it will
not be sufficient to assure a truly common foreign
policy for the left-of-center federation.
As far as Italian domestic policy is
concerned, one of the right-of-center ruling
coalition's member parties, the Northern League (a
federalist and sometimes separatist party), is
attacking Pisanu because it considers his
proposals for the enhancement of intelligence and
precautionary measures to be inadequate, while
pushing its own agenda for a far stricter policy
on immigration. This issue of immigration has
triggered an intense debate over the Schengen
Treaty - ie over the free movement of citizens
within the European Union - in reaction to
France's decision to suspend the treaty as a means
of more effectively countering terrorist cell
activities. The Northern League, already engaged
in a head-on attack against the euro since the
French and Dutch rejection of the EU's
Constitutional Treaty, is - as expected - now
pushing for suspension of the Schengen Treaty,
thus contributing to the ruling coalition's
embarrassment.
On July 12, the Italian
military intelligence agency SISMI released an
alarming report stating that some 300 Islamist
suicide fighters successfully reached Iraq from
Italy. Because of this, questions are being asked
as to how Italy can eliminate terrorist cells
within its own country when it cannot even stop
militants from leaving Italy to fight in Iraq.
As a matter of fact, Italian political
parties do not share a common view of Italy's
security, either in foreign or in domestic
affairs. Berlusconi's government had wagered on
the US's ability to forge a democratic and
pro-Western Middle East in 2002-2003, and is now
very worried about a possible US failure.
Propositions to pull out troops earlier than
expected go beyond the current terrorist threats
and current election strategy.
In
addition, the link between the Iraq conflict and
the wave of terrorist attacks in Europe is all too
obvious in the view of the neo-communist left, but
is in no way evident according to the more
pro-American right wing. Moreover, any real
strategic vision on immigration is completely
lacking, as in the past decades the issue has been
analyzed in purely economic or merely cultural
terms, with very little geopolitical insight. What
is sure, however, is that the London bombings have
had a deep impact on Italy's politics.
The bottom line
Faced with both
economic and political crises, Italy looks
vulnerable militarily, and also politically, to a
possible terrorist attack. The London attacks have
complicated the withdrawal from Iraq even further
because the battle over the timing of the Italian
troops' departure now incorporates a new variable:
its perception in terms of an unacceptable
yielding to terrorist threats. Concern over
creating this perception is likely to be
reiterated, and to gain even more prominence as
the country enters a year of decisive
institutional change. A gradual withdrawal from
Iraq appears likely, in part because pulling out
little by little could mitigate the political
significance and insight of such a move.
Widespread insecurity and political
instability will hamper the government's ability
to perform significant reforms in its last year
before the elections. Therefore, a continuation of
the country's malaise and poor economic
performance is to be expected. In the event of a
worsening of the Iraq conflict - involving an
early withdrawal of US troops - look for Rome to
rapidly seek to reestablish closer ties with Paris
and Berlin.
Published with permission
of the Power and Interest News
Report, an analysis-based
publication that seeks to provide insight into
various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed
to content@pinr.com |
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