Spanish election sets off global shock
wave By J Sean Curtin
The
surprise defeat of the conservative Popular Party in
Spain's general election has sent political shock waves
surging around the planet. The outgoing Spanish prime
minister, Jose Maria Aznar, was a key supporter of US
President George W Bush's war in Iraq, and his party's
sudden ejection from office will be sorely felt in the
White House. More alarming for Washington is the fact
that Aznar's perceived closeness to Bush appears to be
one of the key factors behind his party's stunning loss.
The completely unexpected result has already created a
sense of deep unease in London and Tokyo, both of whose
leaders staunchly support Bush's stance on Iraq. The
demise of Spain's powerful Popular Party also clearly
demonstrates that Iraq has become an unpredictable
factor in global politics.
After September
2002's unexpected re-election victory of anti-war German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, this is the second major
European election in which the result has been
significantly influenced by the conflict in Iraq.
Ironically, while Bush's Iraq policy may not succeed in
its stated aim of redrawing the political map of the
Middle East, it is definitely having a huge impact in
Europe.
The Spanish election result will alter
the European power balance, making Bush's task of
generating support for his Iraq policy even more
difficult. Spain may even withdraw its troops from Iraq.
The incoming Socialist Party is likely to be more
closely allied with France and Germany, while British
Prime Minister Tony Blair will lose one of the few
European leaders who backed him in supporting Bush's
preemptive Iraq war. This will further undermine Blair's
influence within Europe.
In Britain, the Iraq
war, which was domestically unpopular, is likely to
dominate next year's anticipated general election. Many
observers think Tony Blair may not even survive until
then because of his Iraq-induced tumble in popularity.
The British public is also now fearful of a Madrid-style
terror attack being carried out on its soil. In Tokyo,
Iraq also has the potential to topple Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi, but his position is currently firmer
than Blair's. No doubt, the post-mortem analysis of the
Spanish election will be keenly examined in Washington,
London and Tokyo.
Nick Hart, a British national
living in Spain, comments, "The fact that a seemingly
dead-certain election victory for the Popular Party can
be completely overturned because of its leader's strong
association with George Bush will strike fear in the
heart of Tony Blair and might even unsettle Bush
himself."
Madrid bombing changed the election
result Up until last Thursday's devastating
bombings in Madrid, which killed 200 and injured more
than 1,500 people, opinion polls had clearly shown that
the conservative Popular Party would win the election by
a comfortable margin. However, the widespread belief
that an al-Qaeda-linked terror group was behind the mass
murder completely changed the closing dynamics of the
election.
Initially, the Popular Party insisted
that the Basque separatist group ETA (Euskadi Ta
Askatasuna, or Basque Homeland and Liberty) was
responsible for the Madrid terror outrages, something
that if true would have worked to the party's advantage
because of its tough stance against the group. However,
as it appeared more and more likely that an al-Qaeda
affiliate was the real culprit, many people became angry
with the government, which they accused of trying to
manipulate the tragedy for its own ends.
Once
news of the arrest of three Moroccans and two Indians in
connection with the bombings became public, the national
mood sharply shifted. It was also learned that one of
the Moroccans had been previously linked to al-Qaeda.
For the Popular Party, the final nail in the coffin came
when it was announced that the police had a video
message from an al-Qaeda-inspired group claiming
responsibility for the attacks. The Moroccan-sounding
Arabic voice said, "This is a response to the crimes
that you have caused in the world, and specifically in
Iraq and Afghanistan, and there will be more, if God
wills it."
The night before the election, noisy
demonstrations broke out around the Popular Party's
headquarters in Madrid, with thousands of angry youths
shouting that the government was lying to the public.
Spanish pollsters say a high turnout by young
voters appears to have turned the election around at the
last moment. Alfonso Cortina, a Spanish university
student, summed up the feelings of many young Spaniards.
He said, "We really wanted to know more information
about the bombing before this vote, but we didn't get
it. The government said it was ETA, but we know that
many signs pointed to al-Qaeda, but still they said 'It
is ETA.' The bombings made people think of the war in
Iraq. For many, it stopped being an election and instead
became a referendum on the war. I respect what Mr Aznar
has done for the Spanish economy, but the war in Iraq
was too wrong. I think this is why many people decided
to vote against Partido Popular [Popular Party]."
On a larger than expected turnout, the
Socialists captured nearly 43 percent of the vote while
the Popular Party garnered about 38 percent. The
Socialist Party's unexpected victory ends eight years of
conservative rule.
The incoming Socialist Party
prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said
before the election that if he became premier he would
withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq unless there was
United Nations backing for their deployment. However, at
the time he did not realistically expect to win. In his
first speech after the surprise result became clear, he
played down his pre-election rhetoric, telling the
media, "My immediate priority will be to fight all forms
of terrorism."
Londoners fear terror
attack In the United Kingdom, many people now
believe that their country could be next on the
terrorists' list and once again the arguments about the
rights and wrongs of military action in Iraq are top of
the political agenda. The nation has been put on a
heightened state of alert, with the public told to
report any suspicious objects or persons to the police.
Tim Walsh, a construction worker who commutes
daily into London, echoed the feelings of many of the
capital's citizens. He said, "We have been told to be on
the lookout for suspicious packages on the trains or
buses. It doesn't make you feel happy about traveling on
public transport. I feel uneasy about it, but what can
you do? We all know that the terrorists will try to
strike London next."
Tokyo less concerned In Tokyo, the government has also tightened
security, but the public mood is less gloomy than in
London. Some analysts even believe the bombings might
strengthen Koizumi's position.
Ryoji Yamauchi, a
political commentator and president of Asahikawa
University, said, "If it is confirmed that al-Qaeda has
carried out these terror acts in Madrid, unlike in
Europe, I do not think there will be any significant
political fallout in Japan. In fact, it might even work
to Koizumi's advantage. The dispatch of Japanese troops
to Iraq will now be presented not only as a humanitarian
mission but also as an important part of the 'war on
terror'. This will probably work to Koizumi's advantage,
as opinion polls show that the public do not think he
has yet given a sufficient explanation for dispatching
troops to Iraq."
Yamauchi added, "Most people
think that a terrorist attack is highly unlikely in
Japan. This is for two main reasons. First, since
sending troops to [the Iraqi city of] Samawah, most
Japanese have been convinced by the media that Arab
people absolutely love them. This makes people think
Japan is way down on the list of terror targets. Second,
entry into Japan is already so tightly controlled that
it is hard to imagine any terrorist being able to enter
the country. Checks are already so strict that thousands
of completely legitimate people suffer long security
delays."
The Madrid bombings and the subsequent
defeat of the Popular Party demonstrate that almost one
year after the United States launched its invasion of
Iraq, the war is still an immensely volatile political
issue capable of destroying governments. This high
degree of instability injects a large measure of
unpredictability into the political fortunes of several
world leaders. It certainly casts a shadow over Bush's
re-election chances and clouds the political futures of
Blair and Koizumi.
J Sean Curtin
is a GLOCOMfellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
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