Chirac's strategic visit to
Beijing By Federico Bordonaro
Accompanied by some of France's top chief
executive officers, Jacques Chirac arrived in
Beijing on Wednesday for his fourth visit to China
since 1995. The French president described his
country's relations with Beijing as "strategic"
and added that their development is "at the heart
of France's foreign policy".
Chirac's
four-day visit is aimed first and foremost at
boosting Paris's industrial interests, but the
latter cannot be split from the broader political
significance of the growing Franco-Chinese
economic, financial and
strategic dialogue.
Chirac's bid for
'balanced multipolarity' At a press
conference just before the French president left
Paris for Beijing, his spokesman Jerome Bonnafont
said: "Part of France's place in the world of
tomorrow depends on its ability to construct a
particularly strong relationship with China."
Such an observation is perfectly
consistent with Chirac's geopolitical world view.
Since his first election in 1995, the successor to
Francois Mitterrand has repeatedly expressed his
unease with the US "hyperpower" and with
Washington's "unipolar moment", which he sees as a
not-so-benign hegemony.
Accordingly, the
French president has been promoting what he
believes is the logical and desirable alternative
to US-led unipolarity, a "multipolar world"
predicated on a new balance of power among major
political-strategic and economic poles: the United
States, the European Union (politically headed by
a strong Franco-German combine), Russia, Japan,
India, Brazil and, of course, China.
As
the Franco-German axis entered a strategic impasse
after the EU's successive enlargements, and the
Franco-German-Russian strategic alignment created
in 2003 against the Iraq war does not seem capable
of replacing the Paris-Berlin axis, Chirac now
sees France's ties with the rising Asian powers as
a vital tool to boost Paris's political influence,
economic interests and strategic independence.
However, although China's official media
have repeatedly expressed positive views on
Chirac's foreign policy, Beijing remains extremely
pragmatic: industrial projects have primacy over
grandiose geopolitical visions in China's
discourse, also because the administration of
President Hu Jintao certainly hasn't failed to
note France's excellent relations with Japan.
Industrial stakes take center
stage Industrial projects and cooperation
are the core of the ongoing Franco-Chinese talks.
The two countries on Thursday signed a joint
statement and 14 cooperation agreements ranging
from aviation and nuclear-power utilization to
prevention of infectious diseases.
Matters being discussed during
Chirac's visit include the following.
Aeronautics: Airbus, owned
by the Franco-German giant EADS, succeeded in
enhancing its position in the lucrative Chinese
civilian air industry on Thursday with a new order
for its A320 jets. China Aviation Supplies Import
and Export Group Corp signed a framework agreement
with the European aircraft maker to buy 150
A320-series airliners. However, Airbus's recent
troubles with its A380 superjet - struck by yet
another delay - led China Southern Airlines to
claim compensation, although the delivery of five
A380s has not been canceled.
Nuclear
power: France's Areva, together with Germany's
Siemens AG, is opposed to the US-Japanese giant
Westinghouse in the bid for third-generation
atomic plants wanted by Beijing. However, China is
still postponing its final decision, and it can be
expected that Chirac will try a charm offensive to
improve Areva's chances.
High-speed
railways: France's renowned TGV (Train a
Grande Vitesse, or high-speed train), produced by
Alstom, could be chosen by Beijing for the new
Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed track; but Alstom also
hopes to win the bid for the Beijing-Shanghai
railway.
Banking and insurance
sectors: one of the new big-stake fields for
world competitors, China's banking and insurance
sectors will see French heavyweights determined to
compete. However, France's Societe Generale won't
find it an easy task to prevail against US giant
Citigroup in the battle to take over the Guangdong
Development Bank.
Telecom: The new
3G (third generation) network will offer
opportunities for France's telecom giants,
although competition will be stiff.
As
well as these high-tech and financial areas,
Paris's attention is focused on the automotive
sector and the new service industry. Peugeot CEO
Jean-Martin Folz is among the executives who flew
to Beijing with Chirac, and the president will
inaugurate the group's second car factory in
Wuhan.
According to Chirac himself, a
stronger presence of French small and medium
enterprises in China's expanding service market
will help to rebalance the two countries'
bilateral trade relations.
In addition,
French officials believe that Paris's global share
of the Chinese market (1.4%) needs to be doubled
in the coming years, as at the moment it is still
well below Germany's (4%).
Generally
speaking, French investments in China have risen
by 400% over the past decade, with more than 3,700
small and medium companies now active in the Asian
giant's economy. French exports also got a boost
in 2006, showing a 30% increase in the first
semester.
Some tricky
questions Beijing's industrial relations
with Paris also carry important security
implications that may have significant
consequences for global security - as Washington
and London suggest.
In fact, Chirac has
consistently been the Western leader most
determined to seek an end to the EU arms embargo
against China. And France is the Western power
most consistently pushing to make Galileo, the new
European satellite navigation system, into a
military-use as well as a civilian-use tool.
Any deal between Paris and Beijing on
satellite and defense technology is therefore
likely to be followed by the US with close
attention - and some concern. Although in 2005 the
ending of the EU arms embargo against Beijing
seemed even more imminent than it does today -
since the new German chancellor, Angela Merkel, is
much less favorable to its lifting than was her
predecessor Gerhard Schroeder - many in the West
consider the ban increasingly obsolete.
But Washington, Tokyo and Taipei fear that
defense-technology transfers from EU countries
will give China a strategic advantage over Taiwan
and can dramatically improve Beijing's defensive
and offensive capabilities.
And the
problem with satellite technology could be even
trickier, although it seems to have received less
attention from the mainstream media, as Beijing's
partnership in Galileo already provides China with
some cutting-edge technology that can enhance its
military power - even at a time when Galileo is
limited to civilian-only use.
Should
Galileo acquire a military dimension, Washington
and its closest allies will have good reasons to
be alarmed, also in the light of a recent
satellite incident. On October 12, according to a
report in Jane's Defence Weekly, China used
"high-energy lasers to interfere with US
satellites", which would show that Beijing has
nowadays "some level of confidence" in its "laser
countermeasures system".
With space
politics rapidly increasing in strategic
importance, a likely European satellite-technology
transfer to China may further complicate US
security plans.
Consequently, if
presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy - whose
US-friendly stance is well known - should win
France's general elections next year, Paris may
lose some of its enthusiasm for enhanced
Franco-Chinese military and satellite-related
cooperation.
These problems
notwithstanding and despite the tough competition
that major French groups are facing in their
Chinese bids, Beijing's bilateral ties with Paris
are likely to remain strong and can indeed be
expected to expand even further in the coming
years, particularly in the industrial and
financial sectors.
Federico
Bordonaro is senior analyst with the Power and
Interest News Report (www.pinr.com).
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