China floats towards space
dominance By Brendan O'Reilly
The successful docking of China's manned
Shenzhou-9 spacecraft with the country's
Tiangong-1 space lab on Monday heralds a new age.
A major shift in the world order is occurring
above Earth, with the Chinese space program
expanding as the efforts of other nations wind
down.
Millions of Chinese watched on live
television as Shenzhou-9 blasted off into orbit on
Saturday. The Chinese character "fu", an
auspicious symbol for good luck and fortune,
adorned the cockpit.
The final launch date
wasn't revealed until the day before the launch,
probably due to unpredictable weather conditions.
An anonymous government source had said that June
16 was the
earliest launch window.
[1] This information proved to be correct, and
Shenzhou-9 began its ascent on June 16 at 18:37
Beijing time.
The identity of the first
Chinese woman to be sent into space was also
revealed only at the last minute. Early reports
had narrowed the field into a two-woman race
between Captain Wang Yaping and Major Liu Yang.
The selection of Liu Yang, from Henan province,
was announced at a press conference the day before
the launch.
The selection criteria for
these two women reveal much about Chinese values.
Both are military pilots with distinguished
records: Major Liu managed to land an aircraft in
an emergency situation after it collided with
pigeons during takeoff, and Captain Wang flew
rescue missions during the 2008 Sichuan
earthquake.
As with all Chinese
astronauts, or taikonauts, the women were required
to have good skin, no body odor, pleasant breath,
and no cavities. Most interestingly, both women
are mothers. There are rumors that only women who
have already had a child were considered, due to
Chinese fears of the potentially harmful effects
of spaceflight on female fertility. [2]
The mission Shenzhou-9 follows
three other manned missions. Shenzhou-5, launched
in 2005, was China's first crewed space flight,
followed by Shenzhou-6 in 2005, and Shenzhou-7 in
2008, which saw China's first spacewalk exercise.
Launched in October 2011, Shenzhou 8 was
an unmanned flight. However, it carried out the
country's automatic space docking with the
Tiangong 1, China's first orbital "lab module"
(launched one month earlier).
Shenzhou-9
was tasked with performing China's first manned
space docking with Tiangong -1, a complex
procedure that officials have confirmed was
completed just after 14:00 Beijing time on Monday,
June 18.
A successful docking would mean
"China's spacecraft will become a genuine manned
shuttle tool between space and Earth. It can send
human beings to space stations or space labs",
Zhou Jianping, the main architect of China's
manned space program, told Chinese media before
the launch. [3]
This mission was no simple
procedure. Extensive calculations and advanced
technology were required for the two rapidly
moving craft to link up while orbiting the Earth.
Even the smallest mistake could've led to the
mission's failure and potentially the deaths of
all the taikonauts on board.
The Chinese
government has invested tremendous resources in
its manned space program, spending 35 billion yuan
(US$5.4 billion) from 1992 to 2011, according to
the China Manned Space Engineering Office. It is
one of only three nations that have independently
mastered the technology needed for manned space
missions, space walking, and orbital docking.
The extensive financial, technological,
and political investment in space is in large part
directed towards the construction of a permanently
manned independent space station by 2020. The
International Space Station (ISS) currently
orbiting the Earth is a joint project between the
United States, Russia, Japan, Canada, and the
European Space Agency.
The total cost of
the ISS project has been roughly $100 billion [4],
and is now facing funding issues as the economies
of the various cooperative states face a prolonged
crisis. Even with sufficient funding, the space
station will not last forever. Optimistic
estimates see the ISS as serviceable until the
year 2028, but most experts believe the project
will have to be scrapped sometime around 2020.
The European Space Agency is open to the
possibility of Chinese cooperation on the ISS
project, but the United States is not. The US
fears that technology transfers to the Chinese
space program could have dual-use military
applications. The Chinese space program has been
aided by Russian and German technology. In
exchange, China is allowing Russian and German
experiments on Chinese spacecraft.
The
Chinese space program is scheduled to establish a
permanently manned space station in 2020. Barring
major policy changes in the United States, Europe,
or Russia, the Chinese may have the only sustained
human presence in space within a decade.
Payload payoff There are at least
four distinct areas where the Chinese leadership
expects benefits from China's expanding investment
in space technology.
First, a presence in
Earth's orbit has important military potential.
The People's Republic of China, as a member of the
United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of
Outer Space, and a signatory of the Outer Space
Treaty, is obliged to not place nuclear weapons in
space. However, the Outer Space Treaty does not
forbid the deployment of conventional weapons in
space. In 2007, China carried out a successful
anti-satellite missile test. China has a stated
intent of avoiding an arms race in space, but if
the Chinese government feels sufficiently
threatened, the Chinese space program could be
used for military purposes.
China, along
with Russia, is particularly concerned about
ongoing US efforts to deploy anti-ballistic
missile capabilities. China posses fewer
intercontinental ballistic missile than the other
major powers; therefore the US missile-defense
system is a threat to China's strategic nuclear
deterrence. A military presence in Low Earth Orbit
could be used to deploy countermeasures to the US
missile-defense system.
Secondly,
scientific research is a key motivation for
China's ongoing space program and the planned
Chinese space station. By establishing a
permanently manned presence in Low Earth Orbit,
Chinese scientists will have constant access to
weightless conditions for biological and chemical
research. Furthermore, this will provide
unmediated access to long-range observation of the
distant reaches of the Universe.
Thirdly,
the Chinese space program (like so many of China's
current policies) is motivated by economic
incentives. The untapped economic potential of
outer space is immense, and this potential is
receiving increasing attention. Commercial
spaceflight has already become a reality. In April
of this year, billionaire Google executives and
film director James Cameron jointly founded
Planetary Resources Inc. Its stated mission is to
extract minerals from asteroids and "add trillions
of dollars to global GDP." [5]
A recent
study by the US National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) found that an investment of
$2.6 billion could allow robot spacecraft to
"capture" a 500-ton asteroid and move it into
lunar orbit. Further expenditures could be needed
for mining and the transportation of minerals to
the Earth. This project could be carried out with
existing technology within about a decade.
Planetary Resources Inc may have the
dream, and NASA may have the research, but China
has the cash. Some of China's state-owned
enterprises are sitting on tens of billions of
dollars, and the Chinese government itself has
roughly three trillion dollars in foreign
reserves. Furthermore, China's growing economy is
heavily dependent on imported minerals. China may
be the only country in the world with the
technology, the financial resources, and the
political will to make a risky (and potentially
highly profitable) investment in a space-mining
project.
Finally, and perhaps most
importantly, a space program has major symbolic
value. As the United States winds down its manned
program and the ISS faces obsolescence, China may
be the only country left in the world with a
significant human presence in space. Although a
distant third behind Russia and the United States
in the space race, China's independent entry is a
source of great national pride.
The naming
of China's space assets is a particularly
interesting aspect of the symbolism of the
project. At the genesis of China's space program
in the days of Mao Zedong, the carrier rockets
were named "Long March", after that central event
in Chinese revolutionary mythology. In the
contemporary phase of China's space program,
revolutionary labels have been replaced with
mystical ones.
The current generation of
rockets is called "Shenzhou", which roughly
translates as "divine vessel" and is a homophone
for an ancient poetic name for China itself.
China's first moon orbiter, Chang'e-1, was named
for a mythical Chinese lunar goddess. Finally,
Tianggong-1, China's currently operational
orbiting lab module, means "Heavenly Palace."
The PLA solicited suggestions from
citizens to name China's planned space station.
Wang Wenbao, director of the Manned Space
Engineering Office said, "The future space station
should carry a resounding and encouraging name… We
now feel that the public should be involved in the
names and symbols as this major project will
enhance national prestige, and strengthen the
national sense of cohesion and pride." [6]
The shift from revolutionary names to
mystical ones is a deliberate policy to broaden
the appeal of China's space program. The massive
push for increasingly impressive space missions is
meant in no small part to unite the various social
classes, ethnic groups, and political factions in
Greater China in pride of their nation's
achievements.
The Chinese government has
made significant investments in China's space
program, and fully expects this decision to pay
off. Military capabilities, scientific advances,
economic benefits, and psychological victories are
the potential fruits of a successful space
program. China may be the only country in the
world with the technological skill, the political
will, and the cold hard cash to ensure that its
investments in space pay off.
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