Ma tests cordiality of cross-strait ties
By Jens Kastner
TAIPEI - The first months of 2010 have brought about great changes in
Taiwan-China relations. Not since the end of the Chinese civil war in the late
1940s has there been such an abundance of goodwill between the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang (KMT). The Economic
Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is due to be signed in June. Against
domestic opposition, Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has invested huge
political capital in the ongoing cross-strait reconciliation.
Still, two recent incidents suggest that Taiwan's KMT government is not as
submissive to China as its opponents claim. Firstly, Ma has publicly requested
that the United States sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighters. Secondly, media
reports claim Taiwan secretly tested medium-range missiles this month that are
capable of striking vital targets in China. Not only Shanghai and ballistic
missile bases on the east coast, but Beijing, Chongqing
and the Three Gorges Dam are now believed to be within range of Taiwan's
arsenal of deterrent weapons.
Despite Ma's maneuvers, there has been none of Beijing's hallmark tirades
against Taiwanese arms projects, and China has been remarkably quiet. While
Beijing snubbed United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on his recent
Asia trip over the possible sale of F-16C/D fighters to Taiwan, it has
refrained from criticizing Ma's administration over developments that could
revive a cross-strait arms race.
The alleged Taiwanese medium-range missile tests took place in Pingtung county,
a tropical area in southern Taiwan. The claim was that in early June, at
Jiupeng base, Hsiung Feng IIE (HF-2E) cruise missiles and also medium-range
missiles were test-fired. Almost coinciding with the timeframe for Taipei and
Beijing's plans to sign the ECFA, domestic and international media picked up on
the story of the tests, supposedly from information secretly obtained from
high-ranking members of the Taiwanese military. According to Hong Kong and
Taiwan media reports, final tests were due to be held this month.
The medium-range missiles reportedly have a range of 1,900 to 2,200 kilometers,
putting targets such as Beijing and China's giant Three Gorges Dam in range. A
strike on the world's largest electricity-generating plant would endanger the
lives of millions of Chinese, since the cities of Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai
are situated downstream of the dam. Taipei has long denied the existence of
such a program.
The domestically developed HF-2E has a range of 800 kilometers and could
therefore reach Shanghai and China's southeast coast. The project was initiated
by Ma's predecessors, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, entering mass production
in 2005.
In October 2009, Jiupeng base was reportedly the site of the Taiwan military's
largest-ever missile exercise - a failed test of the HF-2E cruise missiles. Of
the military bases in Pingtung, where middle-income families typically spend
their holidays, none are as shrouded in mystery as Jiupeng. Every now and then,
on streets packed with surfboard-carrying vacationers, military convoys drive
by at walking speed.
Hong Kong magazine Yazhou Zhoukan suspected that the genuine purpose of
combined maneuvers earlier this month involving Taiwan's navy, air force and
army was a cover-up of medium-range missiles tests conducted at Jiupeng base.
Taiwanese defense officials have dismissed the reports, but nonetheless
confirmed that "various weapons systems" were being worked on as scheduled.
Observers of cross-strait defense issues don't seem to have too many doubts
over the allegations.
"I believe Taiwan's military has continuously been developing medium-range
missiles. Changes of administrations have either accelerated or slowed down the
project but never stopped," Wang Jyh-Perng, reserve captain of the Taiwan navy
and associate research fellow at the Association for Managing Defense and
Strategies, said in an interview with Asia Times Online. "However, I don't
believe that these media reports are based on recent information collected from
high-ranking members of the Taiwanese military."
Members of Taiwan's opposition obtained the information a while ago but waited
for an "appropriate time" to pass it to the media, Wang said, adding that was
provided by the imminent signing of the ECFA. "To me, the whistleblower's
objective was simply to interfere with the ECFA signing process and to
highlight the fact that China still has 1,500 of its own missiles aimed at
Taiwan."
However, since neither Beijing nor Taipei allowed a dispute over the matter to
develop, the opposition's plan doesn't seem to have worked and seems likely to
backfire.
Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party lost the presidential elections
in 2008 partly due to corruption allegations surrounding Chen and his family
and because a majority of Taiwanese did not support its fierce anti-China
rhetoric.
Taiwanese voters have a very different image of Ma, and a relativly large
section of the population dislikes him for his overly clean, out-of-touch image
and what they claim is his submissive approach to Beijing.
After all, it was Ma's administration that prohibited Taiwanese from displaying
national flags near meetings with mainland delegations. Voices that accuse Ma's
KMT of selling out Taiwan's sovereignty are not only being heard from hardcore
supporters of Taiwanese independence.
To make up for Ma's weak image and to counter widespread criticism that the
Hong Kong-born president simply "doesn't love Taiwan", the newly fueled notion
that the KMT government seeks to obtain powerful Taiwan-made deterrent weaponry
could come in handy. The missile tests show Ma standing up to China, but also
to the US. In Taiwan, there is a widespread public perception that the US has
been overcharging in arms deals.
The rumors of Taiwanese medium-range missile tests and Ma's request for
American F-16C/D fighter jets didn't lead to Beijing furiously condemning Ma's
KMT government. Therefore, the ECFA negotiations that are immensely important
to the Chinese government could proceed undisturbed.
The F-16C/D sale is unlileky to happen because Ma's administration only
pretends to be interested in the purchase, according to Wang. "Ma keeps
stressing that Taiwan must develop sufficient defensive strength, but he does
so only to cater to public opinion and to keep the US happy," he said.
Ma's KMT government is puitting on a precarious balancing act. Although the
current cross-strait situation is somewhat relaxed, there is a realistic danger
that future Chinese domestic problems could develop into external conflict,
Wang said.
In any case, neither medium-range missiles, cruise missiles nor fighter jets
are desirable for Taiwan because its economy is too small to support an arms
race with China, while a better option for a military facing a much larger
opponent would be the purchase of inexpensive and effective submarines,
according to Wang. Comparing Taiwan's situation to that of North Korea, Wang
notes on his blog, "The [recent] sinking of the [South Korean corvette] Cheonan
makes clear that a party that finds itself at a disadvantage can still gain an
asymmetric advantage and that the submarine is the weapon to accomplish this."
Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based reporter.
(Copyright 2010 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
