Page 1 of 2 China has good reason to stay quiet
By Peter J Brown
The US Air Force's (USAF) launch of the mysterious robotic X-37B Orbital Test
Vehicle - a small, unmanned reusable space plane which resembles but is dwarfed
by the much larger space shuttle - from Florida on Thursday came just hours
after the launch from California of the Falcon Hypersonic Test Vehicle-2
(HTV-2). The HTV-2 is an unmanned glider developed by the US Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA) which was reportedly supposed to travel more
than 4,000 miles (6,437 kilometers) on its test-flight in just 30 minutes.
While the X-37B launch was a success - no landing date has yet been announced -
DARPA announced that the Falcon test flight
was a failure as contact was lost with the hypersonic craft nine minutes after
its suborbital launch from a Minotaur IV rocket. Still, by conducting both test
flights on the same day, the US sent out a strong signal that despite the
heated ongoing domestic debate over the future of the US National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA), the US is unmatched and as bold as ever when
it comes to space research and development.
These two simultaneous tests also leave the distinct impression that despite
any US claims to the contrary, the US military is engaged in the deployment of
space weapons and is preparing to roll out so-called conventional "Prompt
Global Strike" capabilities. As the US space shuttle program nears its end, the
US military intends to retain the ability to launch a space plane quickly - one
which can remain in space for well over 200 days - and after it lands safely,
have it ready to go up again in as little as 15 days.
China Daily quoted Zhai Dequan, deputy secretary-general of the China Arms
Control and Disarmament Association, who said that the impact of the X-37B "may
not be serious enough to trigger an arms race in space. The US previously said
that it would slow down the pace of developing the space plane project. But now
with the launch, it shows the US has never really slowed down." [1]
China could easily put the US in the hot seat for failing to disclose details
about the true nature of the X-37B test-flight. Having such an opportunity to
turn the tables on the US after listening to so many US complaints in the past
about China's lack of transparency no doubt bemuses Beijing.
However, China has good reasons for tempering its criticism. Several days after
the launches of the X-37B and Falcon HTV-2, for example, there was a report in
the Chinese press attributed to Wang Chun, a senior engineer at the Chengdu
Aircraft Design Institute who serves as general director of Near Space Vehicle
Research Laboratory, that China had successfully launched its own hypersonic
"prototype space fighter". Whether or not this involved China's "Shenlong"
space plane project is unclear. Regardless, all coverage of this story which
commenced in China Aviation News suddenly ceased in the Chinese press, and a
well-publicized retraction took place shortly thereafter. [2]
There are other reasons for China to exercise some degree of restraint.
"The Chinese are pleased that, unlike the [George W] Bush administration, US
President Barack Obama values arms control as a legitimate vehicle for
realizing US and international security objectives, and that he is working to
minimize friction and facilitate dialogue and cooperation between the US and
China on these issues," said Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China Project
Manager for the Global Security Program at the Massachusetts-based Union of
Concerned Scientists.
In space in particular, Obama seems open to a fresh start, and China wants that
openness to continue.
"The Obama administration has expressed a willingness to discuss space arms
control in Geneva and China welcomes the change," said Kulacki. "This winter,
in Track-Two talks in Geneva, the Chinese delegation hinted they would be open
to discussing a ban on terrestrial anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons as part of a
future Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) agreement."
One of the criticisms of the current space arms control treaty proposed by
Russia and China has been that it does not prohibit ASAT weapons, "so this
indicates the draft is only meant as a starting point for talks, not a limit on
what China and Russia would be willing to include in a potential treaty,"
Kulacki added.
At the same time, Chinese military planners, particularly those responsible for
scientific and technical development, have been anticipating developments like
the X-37B and the Falcon for two decades.
"They are not surprised by anything the US is doing. They have been concerned
about the weaponization of space for more than two decades, and would like to
see international negotiations to address what they perceive as a potential
arms race in space," said Kulacki. "They would like to constrain US development
of military space technologies, because, in part, they don't want to have to
make large investments in keeping up, but also because they worry these
technologies are destabilizing and could precipitate a unwanted war."
As the X-37B headed into orbit, former Russian Air Force commander Anatoly
Kornukov accused the US of spitting on calls from Russia and the world "to
abandon plans for the deployment of weapons in space".
"The aggressors from space could turn Russia into something like Iraq or
Yugoslavia," said Kornukov.
Kornukov obviously disapproved of the fact that the USAF provided so little
information on the actual technology being tested.
"What remains unclear is what mission[s] the USAF intends to use the technology
for - and it must have something in mind since it already wants two [space
planes]," said Joan Johnson-Freese, Chair of the National Security Decision
Making Department at the US Naval War College. "Given the dual use nature of
most space technology - in terms of both civil/military and offense/defense -
the ambiguity created by the silence regarding the intended mission is
understandably causing angst in many countries. The US has consistently chided
China for not being forthcoming about its intent for its space technology, so
the X-37B could become an excuse for China to continue that practice."
Not only is China quickly learning the ins and outs of international diplomacy
regarding dual-use space technology, and therefore more nuanced in both its
actions and responses, it is also signaling that it is ready to work with the
US on human spaceflight.
"China is willing to forego too much criticism of US space activities right now
- again, especially since others are raising the concern flag for them - so as
not to jeopardize the cooperation potential, and so that they can then pursue
similar paths if they so choose," said Johnson-Freese. "One of the most
interesting aspects of this story is that it is a much bigger story
internationally than in the US, and with a much more ominous and nefarious
tone. In effect, the US sees itself as Han Solo in space, while the rest of the
world hears the eerie voice of Darth Vader when the US talks about space."
Before the X-37B even lifted off its launch pad, DARPA had already "lost
contact" with the Falcon hypersonic test vehicle which had been specifically
designed to splash down into the Pacific at very high speed in the final phase
of its test flight.
"I assume DARPA was unable to conduct whatever operations it had planned for
the vehicle prior to crashing, meaning that the information received was
incomplete or bad," said Professor Roger Handberg, a military space expert at
the University of Central Florida. "Although one could be more Machiavellian
and suggest that the report was partially misinformation and in fact DARPA got
what it wanted, but does not wish to let others know that."
The US Falcon was not the first unmanned hypersonic test vehicle to fly over
the Pacific. Japan's Hypersonic Flight Experiment (HYFLEX) in early 1996 was an
integral part of Japan's efforts to develop its own space shuttle known as Kibo
("Hope"). After achieving a maximum altitude of 110 kilometers and a maximum
speed of Mach 15, HYFLEX vanished - "it was unsuccessfully recovered" said the
Japanese - after it splashed down northeast of Chichi-jima in the Ogasawara
Islands. [3]
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
