Page 1 of 2 China's space program poised to surge
By Peter J Brown
China's space program is poised to surge ahead at a brisk pace in 2010. In
fact, over the next 12 months, China's activities in space may be such that
when all is said and done, 2010 could well rank as one of China's top years
thus far in terms of the total number and variety of missions launched.
Part of the reason for this is the sense, created by reports that two or three
major Chinese space programs are running behind schedule, that China has some
catching up to do. This might help to explain the rapid sequence of launches of
the Yaogan VII and Yaogan VIII remote sensing satellites by China last month.
After 2009, which is best described as relatively uneventful with
the exception of the successful completion of the Chang'e-1 lunar mission last
March and the dual Yaogan launches, 2010 could prove to be exciting for
observers of China's space program.
At the same time, a very important chapter will be unfolding behind the scenes,
involving the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC, aka
CASTC) and what amounts to an ongoing attempt to fundamentally change China's
space technology industrial base.
CASC, one of China's two main group corporations that produce the nation's
satellites and launch vehicle technology for both the civilian and military
space programs, is undergoing another round of reorganization, consolidation,
and marketization, according to Eric Hagt, China program director at the World
Security Institute in Washington DC. He says it could "lead to a major shakeup
of the industry with far-reaching consequences for China's ability to innovate,
market and generally advance" its space program.
"The more important issue that is increasingly being discussed is an
organizational one. As China's space program expands in size and breadth, the
lines of authority for dual-use satellites, their applications, the dynamic
between the many agencies participating in and competing for various directions
in the space program are becoming problematic, judging by the growing concern
amongst academics and scientists in the space community," said Hagt.
In terms of steady progress in China's manned space program, Tiangong-1
("Heavenly Temple") will be launched in late 2010, putting in place the first
portion of China's planned space laboratory in low-earth orbit. Although
Tiangong-1 will be deployed in space, no actual manned missions will reach this
new outpost in space until next year. Still, this will be a very significant
event, according to Hagt.
"China's manned space program will make the initial installment of putting a
permanent 'man-able' station in space. Up to this point, China's manned voyages
into space have been successful but transient," said Hagt. "Building a
permanent presence in space has been a longstanding goal of China and is more
than just another step in its program. It has the important symbolic value of
staking a claim in low-earth orbit and illustrates China's permanent interests
and claims to develop and exploit space along with other space-faring powers."
China has made it clear for months that successful completion of all work on
the Tiangong-1 and the Shenzhou-8 manned capsule, along with a new Long March
2F launch vehicle, is the top priority. Tiangong-1's launch must proceed on
time because China's historic first docking in space depends upon it. That will
take place when Shenzhou-8 is launched in early 2011.
"It is always difficult to predict the potential success of the Chinese in
meeting their timelines, as they often - even usually - deliberately blur their
deadlines," said Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Decision
Making Department at the US Naval War College. "It is an Asian cultural thing
so as not to 'lose face' - with very real ramifications for the jobs of program
managers - if deadlines are not met.
"Tiangong-1, their 8.5 ton space laboratory module, is still scheduled for
launch in 'late 2010' for a potential first rendezvous with Shenzhou 8 in 2011.
That will be an important step forward in the second phase of their official
three-phase space plan."
According to Hagt, although 2010 was supposed to be a big year for China's
Beidou-2 ("Compass") navigation satellite program as well, with 10 to 12 new
Beidou-2 system satellites planned for launch by the end of the year, "that is
probably not going to happen because of the technical difficulties which China
reported in 2009".
"The Beidou-2 system will be another highly significant evolution in China's
ability to rapidly launch and operate a complex system in space," said Hagt.
"Moreover, it will provide China an independent positioning/navigation
capability that may have significant impact on commercial navigation and will
certainly have a large strategic impact as China reduces its vulnerability
through dependence on GPS." GPS, or Global Positioning System, is the US-based
global navigation satellite system.
China also plans to launch another advanced FY-3B (Fengyun series) weather
satellite in 2010, and the first in a new generation of the HY-2 ocean survey
or maritime surveillance satellites (Haiyang series), said Hagt.
As part of a highly successful lunar program, the Chang'e-2 lunar probe will go
up in late 2010, preparing the way for a moon landing by Chang'e-3 at a later
date.
"While the media hype has focused on China's Shenzhou manned missions, its
lunar program is progressing well. Another lunar orbiter will be followed soon
after by China's first unmanned lunar landing, though not in 2010, the
significance of which has yet to be felt," said Hagt.
All eyes will be on the status of construction work at China's new space launch
center on Hainan Island - the future home base for China's massive Long March 5
(LM-5) launch vehicle, among other things - which finally got underway last
September. It is scheduled for completion by 2013 and will be activated by
2015.
Work on the LM-5 itself is running slightly behind schedule.
"As for the LM-5, the main engine underwent its first integrated test which was
successful. The first stage feasibility plan and design is reportedly
essentially complete and the second stage will enter preliminary research and
development stage in 2010. The overall plan appears to have the LM-5 ready
around the same date - 2014 - that the Hainan launch complex will be
completed," said Hagt. "The remaining Shenzhou missions appear to have slipped
in their schedule for launch, as has the overall lunar program with the delay
of the LM-5 development."
"Right now though, the LM-5 is still scheduled to be operational in 2014. How
'operational' will be defined remains to be seen," said Johnson-Freese.
Despite its growing list of achievements in space, Hagt contends that "China
has still not made its mark in the international arena."
"This applies to its failure to widely tap the international space launch and
satellite technology market. But major cooperative efforts have also fizzled.
The termination of China's participation in Galileo [the European satellite
navigation system] is a case in point. China's cooperation with Russia on space
exploration has been delayed and is generally anemic," said Hagt. "But it must
also calculated in terms of exclusion to major international space efforts such
as the International Space Station. Whatever the reasons (political, economic,
strategic), space programs are undoubtedly hallmarks of great-nation status and
China's failure to overcome them must ultimately be seen as a problem."
It should be noted that China is seeking to expand its ties in space with
Brazil, and has recently added Laos and Bolivia to its list of nations involved
in projects with China involving satellite communications. Venezuela and
Nigeria are already on that list.
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