TAIPEI - Saturday's elections for county magistrates and city mayors in Taiwan
might seem insignificant in terms of major international news, but polls in
Taiwan are often more than meets the eye and the weekend's local-level
elections were worthy of watching in terms of the consequences not only for
local politics, but more importantly, on the capability of the ruling
Kuomintang (KMT) party to hold onto its grip on power and on the island's
relations with China.
The results on the surface show the KMT winning - it grabbed the top posts in
12 out of the 17 counties and cities where magistrate and mayoral races were
held. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won only four of the
local areas, while an independent candidate won the remaining area.
The KMT also enjoyed an overwhelming victory in elections of county and city
councilors and township chiefs held on the same
day, securing a much larger number of seats and percentage of votes than the
DPP.
Yet, the KMT and President Ma Ying-jeou are widely considered to be the losers.
Although the KMT managed to maintain its hold on a majority of the 17 counties
and cities in winning the magistrate and mayoral positions, the DPP gained one
more county than it had before and more importantly, it won 45.32% of all votes
cast for county magistrates and city mayors, up significantly from the 41.95%
it had in the last local-level elections held four years ago.
The ratio of overall votes cast in county and city leader races won by the DPP
was just short of the KMT's 47.87%. The ruling party, in fact, lost in terms of
percentage as it had a much higher percentage - 50.96% of the votes in 2005.
Speaking at a news conference after the final election results came out, Ma
admitted that the results "did not measure up to ideals".
"The relatively unsatisfactory results for the KMT in terms of the number of
county and city administrators and ratio of votes won have been deeply related
to the environment unfavorable to the ruling party, and we will conduct a
thorough review," Ma told a news conference at the KMT headquarters in Taipei,
after the results were announced.
The election was widely seen as a gauge of public opinion on Ma and his
performance in the first half of his term.
And the results show Ma and the KMT need to carefully heed the warning from
this election if they want to do well in the late 2010 election for county
magistrates and mayors in the eight other cities and counties in Taiwan - the
biggest ones on the island including Taipei city and county and Kaohsiung city
and county. Even more important, the presidential election looms in 2012.
"This election sends a message to Ma Ying-jeou: 'You're not doing very well. We
don't really like your style'," said Kou Chien-wen, a professor at National
Chengchi University's Department of Political Science.
Factors that may have hurt the KMT's performance include the global recession,
Typhoon Morakot, the administration's recent lifting of a ban on US beef
imports, and to some extent fears over a free-trade agreement Ma's
administration plans to sign with mainland China, Kou and others said.
Since Ma came into office in May 2008, the economy has experienced its worst
recession, with exports plunging and unemployment reaching a record high of
over 6%. Signs of a recovery are beginning to appear - Taiwan's jobless rate
dropped last month, exports rose for the first time in a year in October, and
the economy is expected to return to growth in the last quarter. These factors
perhaps helped Ma's party avoid a worse outcome in the elections.
But the administration is still reeling from widespread criticisms of its
sluggish response when Typhoon Morakot hit the island in early August. The
worst typhoon to in half a century killed more than 600 people. Although local
government officials were also at fault, Taiwanese people expected stronger
leadership from the top, and had been disappointed by various top government
ministries' and departments' blunders - including not sending out soldiers
early enough, not evacuating people living in dangerous areas before the
typhoon hit, and initially rejecting foreign aid.
In recent weeks, the opposition DPP has also played up fears of mad cow disease
after Ma's administration lifted a ban on certain US beef products.
And although Taiwan's improved relations with China in the first half term of
Ma's administration have brought obvious economic benefits - including
thousands of Chinese tourists who come each day and large amounts of purchases
from Chinese procurement missions - the DPP has highlighted the possible
negative impacts of Ma's plans to sign a partial free-trade agreement with
China, known as an economic cooperation framework agreement. The DPP has also
criticized Ma's administration's "closed-door" style of negotiations with China
and warned of the threats to Taiwan's sovereignty if the island is too
economically dependent on China.
The DPP's chairwoman, Tsai Ing-wen, said after the election that the results
marked a "no confidence vote" for Ma.
"The results show people are not happy with the government," Tsai said. "Over
the past year, [Taiwan's] sovereignty has been harmed and senior public
officials have ignored public needs," Tsai said.
It may be too soon to tell what the impact of the election will be, but for
sure, it will force the Ma administration to analyze what has gone wrong. A
local TV station reported he spent most of the day after the election calling
the KMT candidates to ask them what had led to the results.
In terms of Ma's China policy, the results are believed to have little impact,
although he will be more careful to heed public opinion.
"This will not change his policy direction toward China, but it could cause him
to slow the pace," said Sun Yang-Ming, vice president of the Cross-Strait
Interflow Prospect Foundation, a think-tank.
What's widely considered true though is that the opposition DPP has seen a
revival after suffering massive losses in the legislative elections in 2007 and
losing the presidential race by a large margin in 2008.
Tsai said the results indicated the party "has emerged from the bottom".
Analysts said the election results showed the party had successfully walked out
the shadow of former president, Chen Shui-bian, who has been detained for more
than a year and is appealing a life sentence for embezzlement and bribe-taking.
Despite the high-profile trial that has been going on for a year, voters seem
to see the present-day DPP, led by the level-headed and intelligent Tsai, as
different from its former self, led by Chen.
"Local media analyses say the DPP has shed itself of the Chen Shui-bian
corruption case ... this means they have a chance at the presidential
election," said Kou.
But there will be many more voters than the more than 7 million in Saturday's
elections, when it comes time to elect the president in the presidential
election in 2012 and next year's elections to elect mayors and magistrates in
the other eight cities and counties in Taiwan.
The number of voters and the dynamics will be different.
But still, the fact that the DPP is closing in on the KMT in terms of ratio of
votes gained in Saturday's election means the KMT may have a tough battle
ahead. Although it won a lot of counties and cities on Saturday, it did not win
by a big enough margin of votes.
"This ratio of votes [47.87% for the KMT versus 45.32% for the DPP] may not
necessarily be an accurate reflection of what's to come in next year's
elections and the 2012 presidential election, but it shows the KMT is losing
ground," said Kou. The ratio reflected the loyalties of people in local areas,
he said.
Ma's words after the election indicated he may be well aware of the challenges
ahead.
"We should be grateful since the voters still gave the party the chance to
continue its rule of 12 counties or cities up for grabs even in the face of the
economic downturn and high unemployment," Ma said. He added that he KMT would
"honestly face the message of warning sent by the elections and seek to
re-energize the economy so as to ensure a better tomorrow for the people."
What Ma might do is actually speed up the pace of signing economic agreements
with China, Kou said.
Other than economic gains, Ma would have few other ways in which to show his
administration's accomplishments, Kou said, adding that it was difficult for Ma
to have voters directly feel the impact in his other major priority - fighting
corruption - even if he were to succeed.
"He'll use ECFA [economic cooperation framework agreement] and improved
relations with China to show he's improving, to boost his ratings. In the end,
he will still go back to cross-strait relations [as his key policy] because it
will show concrete results," Kou said.
There are risks, however, including the fact that small, labor-intensive
industries in Taiwan could face job losses and suffer from free trade with
China, but it's a gamble that Ma is willing to take.
The other risk is that no matter what he accomplishes in terms of economic
benefits, it will be criticized by the DPP as dependent on China. Opposition
leaders will remind voters that China will want something - political
concessions - in return, and Ma will be pressured to give in.
But what's for sure is that China will be ready to help Ma, as its worst fear
is the KMT losing the presidential race in 2012 and Taiwan returning to rule by
the DPP, which supports Taiwan's formal independence from mainland China.
Cindy Sui is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
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